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December 24, 2013
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This is in the $40+15 satellite to the $165+35. I paid $30 to enter, and I think it is really important to mention that. Rake is extraordinarily high in a lot of live poker settings, and I have tried to avoid them for the most part. These tickets are given out like candy in promotions. Today’s was given to a table of 2/4 stud players. Finding these ridiculous deals is very +$ev.
Coming back from break, there are maybe 35 of us left from 62 players.
We’re at 150/300/25 and playing 9 handed.
Action folds to me on the button and I have AJo and 10,100. I raise to 700. SB with 3200 folds. BB with 9500 3bets to 1500.
getting 3.22 to 1, we make an easy call. My default range for this guy is somewhere around ATs+, KQ, 99+. We have 40% equity against that range, and need around 24% equity. I was also hesitant to give him hands as strong as KK because of his small sizing. His demeanor lead me to believe he probably had exploitable raise sizes and would bet bigger in order not to get drawn out on. I’m really hesitant to listen to this read. Does anyone have any comments on the default range?
flop (3375) Jh8sTs
We have Js.
villain cbets 2000 very quickly. I see two options here. I can push all in like I would with all of my draws here, or I can call and evaluate turn. I decided in game I don’t like option 2 as much because there are lots of bad turns (any 9, 7, Q, K, or spade).
I shove all in and he calls with KQo no spade. Against this exact hand, I would want to play this way to get the most value from him, but against his range I’m only 39% on this flop. Even adding QJ and KJ, my equity only improves to 43%.
Does that mean I should be calling and evaluating the turn? On blank turns my equity improves to nearly 46% vs that range. Does anyone have a problem with me eliminating KK/AA based on his sizing and live reads? I don’t want to be overly optimistic about his range, but removing AA brings us up to 50/50 where there’s already 5500 in the middle, so we would gladly take that. Removing KK brings us up to 56% equity.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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My “concern” about your default range for the BB is that it includes no bluffs. That might well be correct in a $45 satellite, but it's something to consider. Against a good player in the BB, this is a shove pre. Think how close AJo is to the top of your BN opening range.
As played, if we're making the assumption that Villain is tight and straightforward, I'd actually fold flop. The equity numbers you're giving assume that he c-bets 100%, but this sounds like a player who might check AK, which is going to affect your equity significantly. If you're really comfortable taking KK/AA out of this range, then I can see continuing past flop. I suppose I like shoving a bit more than calling since no turns really improve your hand and Villain may shove worse on turn cards that seem bad for you.
December 24, 2013
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Thanks for the reply, Andrew.
First, I want to address that I'm unsure about syntax on propokertools, and I'm unable to download something like equilab or pokerstove at the moment, so the math might be off. So Doug or Jason, check these for me haha.
I actually have 42.3% equity preflop. Post flop, my equity is 52% against that range.
This was the first time this player had 3bet, and I didn't think he was likely to be more than a recreational player. Because of that, I didn't include bluffs as a default. I agree AJo is near the very top of my opening range on the button, but if I think his 3bet range is as tight as it is, shoving seems to turn my hand into a bluff. Could you suggest how many hands as a bluff I should include readless?
99-AA is 30 combos, AT+ is 44 combos. KQ is 16. If I give him bluffs like suited weak Aces or JTs hands, we add 18 combos. If I think he folds KQ, AT, JTs, weak Axs, he folds 56 combos of 108 combos.
([(9500+9500+150+250) x .3245 ] x .4815 )+ [(.5185×9500+1500+150+250)]
= 3031.1870 + 5910.9000 = 8942 where I currently have 8800 chips after opening. Adding more pocket pairs to his range that he may fold adds to my equity, as the left-most equation becomes a smaller relative number to the right most equation when he folds. If he chooses to 3b/call these hands, the left-most equation increases while the right decreases. However, the left increases at a faster rate than the right decreases.
After doing all of this, I definitely see that 4b shoving would be profitable and preferred over a good player with a wide 3betting range from the bb vs the button.
Against someone I don't think is a good player automatically, the preferred route is to evaluate even when the flop is J high, because we don't expect him to cbet 100%.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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i think standard rule of thumb here is that we cant call with AJ OTB pre if we're considering folding J-hi flops vs someone we think is cbetting 100%.
i like foucaults analysis of the hand vs villains perceived range, but i think there's zero shot that im 4b all in w/ AJo vs a recreational random in a $45 tournament, given that i think he has so few bluffs + dominated hands that he 3b/c with. therefore im either calling pre or folding, and given preflop sizing and that id be IP, im favoring calling.
flop im pretty certainly shoving, since im not a fan of nearly any turn, and realizing my (albeit small) equity edge on this board is going to be very difficult if i call, evaluate turn. plus, if we think he's shutting down when he misses, we in a sense let him free-roll us on turns + rivers when he missed, while allowing him to continue with his strong range first to act. all sounds like a headache on this board in this situation.
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