View Plans & Pricing

If you are signed in and are seeing this message, please be sure you have selected a user name in My Profile. The forum requires it.
A A A
Search

— Forum Scope —




— Match —





— Forum Options —





Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters

Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 (0 votes) 
sp_TopicIcon
$3000 gtd frenzy , like the shove?
folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
Members
Forum Posts: 1133
Member Since:
September 14, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
1
April 29, 2015 - 4:19 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0
#Game No : 742089391
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 742089391 *****
$6,000/$12,000 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 
Tournament #68587236 $0.90 + $0.09 - Table #54 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Riverboat16 ( $91,060 )
Seat 2: london_ace ( $60,103 )
Seat 3: spam95 ( $83,902 )
Seat 4: carver11 ( $206,831 )
Seat 5: aykaramba222 ( $121,160 )
Seat 6: OnlyLuck777 ( $141,654 )
Seat 7: JOSLANNY ( $131,030 )
Seat 9: Hol153 ( $74,598 )
Seat 10: Calukooy ( $76,574 )
Calukooy posts ante [$1,200]
OnlyLuck777 posts ante [$1,200]
aykaramba222 posts ante [$1,200]
Riverboat16 posts ante [$1,200]
london_ace posts ante [$1,200]
spam95 posts ante [$1,200]
JOSLANNY posts ante [$1,200]
Hol153 posts ante [$1,200]
carver11 posts ante [$1,200]
Calukooy posts small blind [$6,000]
Riverboat16 posts big blind [$12,000]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ 8heart, 9spade]
london_ace raises [$58,903]
spam95 folds
carver11 folds
aykaramba222 folds
OnlyLuck777 folds
JOSLANNY folds
Hol153 calls [$58,903]
Calukooy folds
Riverboat16 folds
** Dealing flop ** [ Qheart, 6heart, 3spade ]
** Dealing turn ** [ 9club ]
** Dealing river ** [ 9diamond]
** Summary **
 
 
 
Hey
 
 
I decided to shove pre , i had like 5bb left and i would of been probably been commited to call with any two on the bb  
on the next hand.
 
anyone okay with the shove? pretty sure folding here would be really bad imo.
 
 
cheers.
Kalculater
Nose Bleed Member
Members
Forum Posts: 428
Member Since:
January 28, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
2
April 29, 2015 - 6:25 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

Im fine with it.

 

Ideally you dont want to be letting yourself get this short in EP. After the BB you have no FE and minimal here, if any.

TheClubber
Midstakes Master
Members
Forum Posts: 117
Member Since:
November 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
3
April 29, 2015 - 6:32 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

When I get to this spot, I usually rely on the charts I made from Kill Everyone as a general guideline. If you've read Harrington on Holdem, he uses the variable M for the number of rounds you can survive before blinding out. Other books have different labels for this ratio, but basically you count up the cost of one round of blinds and antes (CPR=28K) and divide your stack (60K) by this amount. Kill Everyone calls this the CSI. Harrington called it M. In your example, your CSI is barely over 2 which as you said is very desperate.

Kill Everyone expands on Harrington's idea to takes into account the number of people who could call your shove. Their system multiplies the CSI (M) by the number of players left to act and calls it the power number. You are under the gun, so there are 8 potential callers. This makes your power number around 16. They lower the threshold by 5% if antes are in play, since you should be more aggressive in ante stages.

Lastly they assign a value for each hand based on its equity against calling ranges. If the hand value exceeds your power number, then you should shove. According to their math, the power number of 98o is 10, so they would advise you to fold. Their range for shoving in this spot would be {22+, A3o+, KTo+, QTo+, A2s+, K8s+ Q8s+, J8s+, 97s+, 87+}

In your case, there are a few factors that work in favor and a few factors that work against shoving more than optimal in this spot.

+You are UTG, they may perceive your range as a little tighter and call you less frequently

+There are few stacks over 10 BB, so calling and losing could hurt them significantly, so they may call you less than is optimal

– There's 8 players left to act. even if they call with top 10% of hands, there's only a 44% chance they will all fold.

– It's a $1 tournament, chances are higher that someone will make a loose call.

You don't mention where you are in the prize pool. People should call tighter if there are ICM factors which should let you shove a little looser.

TheClubber
Midstakes Master
Members
Forum Posts: 117
Member Since:
November 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
4
April 29, 2015 - 7:18 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Another way I try to build a shoving range is by making a spreadsheet using the following equation. I'll round your stack to 5BB to simplify a little.

 

EV = Prob all fold * EV if all fold + Prob someone calls * EV when someone calls

 

Before the flop there are 9 antes of 0.1 BB and 1.5 BB from the blinds, so shoving and winning uncontested increases your stack by 2.4 BB

 

If you make the crude assumption that each villain will call the top 10% of hands and fold otherwise, the chances this will happen is (1-0.10)^8, or 43%. So 43% of the time your stack increases to 7.4 BB

 

That means 57% of the time at least one player calls. I'll ignore for simplicity the possibility of multiple callers, but the more people call, the worse it is for you, so the result of the calculation will be a bit optimisitic.

 

If put 98o against a top 10% range, and calculated 32% equity, which is actually higher I than expected. This is probably because my 10% range had a few pocket pairs 66 and 77 where you are flipping and your hand is rarely dominated.

When you get called, assuming it's not a blind, the pot will be 12.4 BB. With 32% equity that's 4BB in expected value. 

So your total EV is 43%*7.4 + 57%*4 = 4.48 BB. You have 5 BB now, by this crude calculation the shove loses 0.5BB or 10% of your stack. It's actually worse for a few reasons 

– If a blind calls instead, the EV of getting called decreases since the pot size goes down.

– At least some of the time you will be up against multiple callers, while this increases the pot size by 5BB, it also decreases your equity by a more significant factor.

– The looser villains are, the worse your EV. If villains call 15% instead of 10% of hands, shoving goes from a -0.5BB play to a -1.5BB play. 

folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
Members
Forum Posts: 1133
Member Since:
September 14, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
5
April 29, 2015 - 7:23 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

@clubber , yeah i've read kill everyone and also raisers edge, both really good books. I do know about CSI and mine was just over 2 as you metioned which is really reallly short. For each CSI you can shove different ranges from what i remember, though a lot of pro's have metioned that you should not really follow these guidlines and just use “exploitive play” (if u have any) or if anything just go by nash equib when you're up against good opponents or if you lack in reads. 

 

I don't have those books anymore , they were on my old computer but that broke down! so yeah that sucks for me. In one section it didmetion how if you have like anything below a csi of 3 and you're on the big blind you should call with any two. I find that intresting because i see many players fold their bb even when they are below the CSI of 3!

 

thoughts on this?

 

Also i think the range for shoving in this spot should be much more wider then the range you have given. In that book kill everyone , it said how you can pretty much shove any suited hand when you're this short , or any card thats above an 8! 

 

i was only double checking if shoving here was correct (though i was pretty sure it was), it seems that i have forgotten a few bits and pieces from that book which is crucial to know imo.

folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
Members
Forum Posts: 1133
Member Since:
September 14, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
6
April 29, 2015 - 7:27 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

oo btw this just after the bubble!

TheClubber
Midstakes Master
Members
Forum Posts: 117
Member Since:
November 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
7
April 29, 2015 - 8:40 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Around blind defense, I would use a similar mathematical approach to construct a calling range. If you fold this hand you will have 5 BB.

The easiest case to consider is when one person puts you all in and everyone else folds. If you fold your hand, your stack size will be 4BB. So you need your expected stack size to be above 4 BB to make call +EV.

Assuming the raiser is not the small blind, the pot size if you call will be 11.4BB, so if your equity is greater than 35% (4/11.4) agasint villain's range you should call and if not you should fold.  

Next assemble what you think are reasonable, tight, moderate, and loose ranges for your villain and see which hands have 35% equity against each range.

If a hijack raise is moderately wide, say top 30% range of {22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+} there are still plenty of hands that aren't profitable to call. For example the trashiest hands like 32o only have 30% equity. Even 85o is has 32% against this range. Q7o just missed my cut at 34.8%. Against this particular range, there are a number of hands where your better off folding. Remember that in tournaments, the chips you lose are worth more than the chips you gain, so erring on the side of caution when calling is best. 

When I tried this exercise, the calling range I got was {22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o} which is only 50% of hands.  

However, an aggressive player in later positions can be raising much wider than 30%. Many cash game charts for the button I have seen are at 40% and with antes in tournaments it should be even wider. 

Here is a wide 62.5% range {22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 94s+, 85s+, 76s, A2o+, K3o+, Q4o+, J5o+, T6o+, 97o+, 87o} Still against this range one 1/8 of hands don't have 35% equity. The calling range I got was {22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 42s+, A2o+ K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T4o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o, 65o, 54o},

TheClubber
Midstakes Master
Members
Forum Posts: 117
Member Since:
November 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
8
April 29, 2015 - 8:42 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

If it's just after the bubble, you will have much less fold equity. People have been folding forever to make the money and now they want to chip up. I don't think the shove is terrible, but I do think it's better to wait.

folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
Members
Forum Posts: 1133
Member Since:
September 14, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
9
April 29, 2015 - 8:56 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

nice post clubber , thanks! 🙂

 

btw how did u manage to get those calling ranges?

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
57 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)

Top Posters:

bennymacca: 2616

Foucault: 2067

folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133

praetor: 1033

theginger45: 924

P-aire 146: 832

Turbulence: 768

The Riceman: 731

duggs: 591

florianm1: 588

Newest Members:

Tillery999

sdmathis89

ne0x00

adrianvaida2525

Anteeater

Laggro

Forum Stats:

Groups: 4

Forums: 24

Topics: 12705

Posts: 75003

 

Member Stats:

Guest Posters: 1063

Members: 12008

Moderators: 2

Admins: 5

Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos

Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1