January 5, 2015
Live Tourney – not near bubble
250- 500 blinds
Villains:
V1: 25 y/o white guy. Weak tight-ish/ borderline NIT and plays fairly straight forward. Limps a lot pre and plays straight forward post.
V2: 25 y/o Mexican new to table – not a lot of reads. He seems like a gambler type.
Hero: I’ve been very aggressive and active at this table. Probably a LAGgish image
Stacks:
V1 = 73,500
V2 = 22,000
Hero = 100,000
Pre-Flop: Folds to V1 who opens from CO for $2500. V2 calls from SB. Hero raises to $8500 from BB with AA. Both call…
POT= 25500
Flop: J96
V2 (Mexican guy) shoves for 15000. Hero calls 15000. V1 shoves AI.
So its 50000 to me to call. Side pot is 50000 and MAIN POT is about 70000.
I would like to hear your thoughts/ criticisms on Hero play on all streets and of course, whether you GII as played.
Thanks
May 20, 2015
I like each decision so far. I’m not calling the shove. I think given the read on V1 he should only show up with sets and AJ, which we have blockers to. Given your reads I think he likely 4 bets KK and QQ pre and limp/calls all the hands which would be strong combo draws on the flop so we can discount these. Would be interested to hear results after a few other replies.
January 5, 2015
Foucault said
The 3b is a little small for being OOP and deep-stacked. I’d call flop. What would you expect V to do with KJ? QJ?
Do you mean you’d call the AI or make the first call from V2?
I don’t expect V1 to be in there with with either KJ or QJ. Do you? V1 (Mexcian) might be but main villain NO. Essentially, my thoughts were that V1 has JJ, KK, QQ, or 99. The chances he has 99 here are discounted and QQ and KK is also as he has been playing fairly nitty and I do not suspect he would go this hard with an overpair.
So where I got confused is that in the side pot I am getting 1-1 and likely that is close. But how does the other pot play mathematically into my decision? Like let’s say I have 35% equity in the main pot. Would it be fair to say now that my pot odds are Side Pot + (35% x main Pot)/ what I need to call (i.e. 500)? If this is true we are getting about 745-500 and essentially need better than 40% equity vs V1 range? Does doing it this way work?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Yes, you’re calculating that correctly, and I mean I’d call both shoves. Why couldn’t V1 have KJ or QJ? You think he open folds them from the CO? Or folding pre-flop getting 2.5:1? (I could see the offsuit ones hitting the muck, but QJs?) Or you think he’s flopping top pair and folding it?
May 20, 2015
I think Andrew’s correct and we need to include KJs and QJs into V1’s range, also he can have broadway clubs here as well. Adding theses hands we can give him a range of JJ,99,66,KJs,QJs,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc, which we have 60% equity against on the flop. We should be calling expecting to be up against sets some of the time but not often enough to make this a fold. If there is a possibility he can show up with KJo, QJo, JTs, QQ, KK then our equity gets even better. Though I think these are unlikely, we cant rule them out completely and should maybe give him some combos.
I don’t like the reasoning that a nitty player would not go hard with an overpair, that’s exactly what nitty players tend to do. If he has QQ or KK look at it from his perspective. He has a safe flop, V2 has shoved and can have a very wide range given your reads and his SPR, you’ve flatted the shove and can also have a wide range with several strong draws and Jx or even 9x. I think a shove with an overpair is gonna make sense to a lot of players in that spot, though I also think it’s likely he 4 bets them preflop.
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