I was just reviewing some of my hands from previous sessions and came across a situation that got me thinking. I’m going to post the hand below and then discuss what I discovered. Feel free to correct, add-to, or comment. Here it is:
WPN, 30/60 blinds No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 8,426 (140.4 bb)
BB: 7,389 (123.2 bb)
UTG+2: 1,838 (30.6 bb)
MP1: 5,391 (89.9 bb)
MP2: 2,500 (41.7 bb)
MP3: 4,350 (72.5 bb)
Hero (CO): 2,870 (47.8 bb)
BTN: 2,470 (41.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q K
4 folds, Hero raises to 120, BTN folds, SB calls 90, BB folds
Flop: (300) 2 K 7 (2 players)
SB bets 225, Hero calls 225
Turn: (750) A (2 players)
SB bets 375, Hero calls 375
River: (1,500) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Results: 1,500 pot
Final Board: 2 K 7 A 9
SB showed T K and lost (-720 net)
Hero showed Q K and won 1,500 (780 net)
I came to the conclusion that by calling from the SB here you really cap your range. On the flop, it seems like villain can’t have AK and at best has KQ which we aren’t worried about. That leaves KJ, KT and maybe K9s that we can really extract maximum value from. If he always 3-bets AK preflop its obvious that we are way ahead on the flop. I think I could have put in a flop raise or bet the river. I think I definitely missed some value here. The turn is scary for both of us so a raise would make the most sense on the flop or bet the river after villain checks. I’m thinking on the flop of a raise to something like 675-725 range. What do you guys think about this sizing? Would you agree or bet smaller/bigger. Or would a call make more sense? I realize there are a few hands that V could have that we are behind on but not many. I think if we go for value this looks like one of the best spots to squeeze out a few more chips. On the river it’s a bit dicey and clearly I froze up a little bit but what do you think is the biggest I could bet (assuming we didn’t raise the flop) to get a call from worse hands here? I think somewhere between 500-750 but IDK maybe we could go bigger?
July 24, 2018
Villain should not have a leading range on this super dry flop. That being said, describing the range you put him on, why would you ever raise flop (I realize you didn’t)? Let him keep betting until he checks. I do think you missed some value on river, but very little, since he has to be at least a little scared of the A on the turn.
You are probably getting a small bet called here, pretty much always, but if you make it too big, Villain will fear the Ace and fold your value targets. 500 looks fine.
July 24, 2018
You have no bluffs. I guess you could turn something like Ax suited with a BDFD game into a bluff, but you are much more likely to get value from Kx hands when they keep betting.
What do you think Villain would put you on if you raise? He is betting for information, don’t give him an excuse to fold a dominated King..
Right. I guess this is more aimed towards an opponent that wont fold top pair. Plus, If I let him bet flop, and turn, and then I fire a bet of 500 on the river it would be the same as Raising him on the flop, checking turn, and betting river with the exception of him being more likely to fold the river if we raise him on the flop.
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