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3 barrel bluff on the final table bubble, should i have made a third barrel?
WeirdFear
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March 31, 2011 - 12:12 am
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Hello everyone, I'm new here, just opened an account and already I have a “crazy bluff” question.

The tourney is a sunday 100$ with rebuys on merge network, 11 players left deep in the money.

 

Merge, $100 Buy-in (6,000/12,000 blinds, 1,200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8546032

UTG: 316,092 (26.3 bb)
MP: 191,138 (15.9 bb)
CO: 311,237 (25.9 bb)
BTN: 120,716 (10.1 bb)
Hero (SB): 455,455 (38 bb)
BB: 587,573 (49 bb)

Preflop: (7,200) Hero is SB with 5 5
4 folds, Hero raises to 33,000, BB calls 21,000

Flop: (73,200) A 7 3 (2 players)
Hero bets 48,725, BB calls 48,725

Turn: (170,650) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets 112,375, BB calls 112,375

River: (395,400) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

My thoughts: I was planning on 2 barreling this board cause his flop
calling range is very wide: Ax, 7x (3x?), underpairs, flushdraw,
gutshots and mb even floats with air, cause the board is so good for me
to cbet and he is in pos. – so on the turn we should get huge amount of
folds, and the only calling hands shuold be: a. monsters (trips+), b. Ax
– narrow range: “AT-” – cause higer A would have 3b pf , and “A8+” –
cause with hands like A2 he beats nothing except flushdraws (he may have
A5,A6 – he may be weak enough to call with them, I don't have much
experience to determine that) and bluffs; c. flush draws – seems to be
unlikely, cause it's on the turn and the board paired (but who knows ).
The questions is whether to fire 3rd barrel on riv or not. I chickened
out and checked, main reason being, that I was hopping to be against
very narrow Ax range after betting the turn + FD came on the riv, so my
push doesn't fold too much. But now thinking about it, it's probably
much better to shove: 260k into 395k pot, must work ~40% of the time to
make it profitable. A8-AT make 36 hands already (and he may have more
Ax) so he should have 50+ calling hands to make my shove -EV. 77,A7, 33,
7x(87s,76s,K7s lets say) = 16 hands, even adding some flush draws won't
change it too much. The only problem may be if he's calling the push
with Ax, but he really shouldn't: my line doesn't look like Ax( AK for
example will not be betting the riv), but it fits for 7x and FD's that
hit on the riv, so he beats only 3brl bluff. Also there is the final table bubble effect which may encourage him to fold more.

What are your thoughts, guys? Opinions about any of the mentioned ranges and op's tendencies will be highly appreciated.
Hope that the post wasn't too long  

Thanks all

Ninemil
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March 31, 2011 - 12:18 am
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Honestly I dont think a turn barrel is good here. The 7 doesnt change much really, and he's probably going to peel at least the river with most if not all his aces, and then you'll be facing another decision OOP…

 

I think flop cbet is good but I don't really see what hands you are going to get him off on the turn that called your flop bet. 

 

I generally tend to lean towards double/triple barreling when I am in position and/or a good turn or river card (an overcard, scare card etc) peels on the turn or river….in addition to this it's important to be able to represent a variety of hands, which is why you need to balance…but thats another topic…

 

gl at the tables.

 

– Clayton

nickastayfly
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March 31, 2011 - 3:58 am
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i agree, i wouldnt have fired on turn cuz it doesnt change anything…hes not going to fold if he has an ace, cuz he called the flop with it..and if he has a 7, hes def not folding, if he has a flush draw, hes prob still not folding, i actually dont think he folds many hands on the turn that he called with on the flop…my line would prob be bet flop, check turn, blocker bet/fold if raised river…

sammyboy
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March 31, 2011 - 7:50 am
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any reads / stats on BB?

Would effect how best to play this hand, I would generally prefer caution as BB is only stack to have you covered, and your playing oop.  Perhaps this is a leak on my part – not used to playing at these levels, I imagine you have to work for youre chips a lot more than $10 – $24 mtts….

WeirdFear
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March 31, 2011 - 8:57 am
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vpip/pfr/3bet:   ~20/~17/11

 

He was pretty aggressive pre flop thats why I could exclude high Aces from his range.

As I wrote in the main post I do think that he should fold alot to a turn bet because he could float with air or a tonn of draws even gut shots, to bluff turn, and weak aces, 2nd barrel should make him lay down most of it, maybe some medium/weak aces call and monsters and very good draws/ draw+pair , so i really think that 2nd barrel is good, remember its a blind vs blind pot so there is not much credit for your cbet even with an ace on the board.

balance: since I dont know the player and he doesnt know me and we dont play together much and never will I dont see any reason to balance anything.

why I dont like the bet/check/bet line:   because he will call me down with all of his aces which I know to be of a medium strainght, because he 3bets with strong aces pre flop, and I want to make him lay down that too if he indeed has one.

My question was mainly about the river bet, so if you have any more thoughts I would appreciate it.

Thanks

 

bennymacca
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March 31, 2011 - 9:01 am
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with those stats i think you are assuming a waaaaay too wide a flop range for villain. those are pretty solid stats in general, i would be check folding turn every time here.

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