BTN played 47/39 (99 hands) and played a lot against me in position. I thought he will take a stab on the pot if it is checked to him. We are at final three tables. What do you think about my play here?
Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t3500/t7000 Blinds + t875 – 5 players
BB: BB = 69.1, t484008
Hero (UTG): BB = 24.4, t170637
CO: BB = 47.3, t330849
BTN: BB = 51.0, t356664
SB: BB = 53.8, t376508
Pre Flop: (t14875) Hero is UTG with Q K
Hero raises to t14014, 1 fold, BTN calls t14014, 1 fold, BB calls t7014
Flop: (t49917) 6 2 7 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets t24958, BB folds, Hero raises to t155748 all in, BTN calls t130790
I like a cbet rather than check/raise. You get more info if you cbet imo. Villian is obv super aggro with those stats but he definitely could have the bigger club or even could have paired up with that flop considering he could have any two. I think a cbet with being able to get away from the hand is the best line. You are essentially just on a draw and maybe have two live overs which is not worth your tournament life.
I don't hate your line here as we still have a good bit of FE. The problem is he could be easily bet/calling the Ac here and we are drawing rather slim. I think at some point you do have to take a risk and don't hate this one. If he has been super aggro he should be firing with just about every hand he flats with and if you are called you more then likely have some live outs.
July 3, 2010
Cougars4444 said:
I don't hate your line here as we still have a good bit of FE. The problem is he could be easily bet/calling the Ac here and we are drawing rather slim. I think at some point you do have to take a risk and don't hate this one. If he has been super aggro he should be firing with just about every hand he flats with and if you are called you more then likely have some live outs.
Agree. Against a villain this acive I think it's the optimal line since he could float a lot of our c-bets to make plays on the Turn. Plus, if we're ahead (we usually are vs. a LAG here) a club kills our action if we're floated.
We're also the short stack at the table so we do need to take some shots. With different stacks I probably have a different answer.
October 6, 2010
im not really sure we have as much fold equity as we think – i mean does a set or an overpair ever check shove a board like this? with those hands, i think you are more likely to bet call so you dont give villain a free card.
with a flush, you probably check call or bet-call as well, unless it is a baby flush.
so a check shove on this board pretty much always looks like overs with a club imo
bennymacca said:
im not really sure we have as much fold equity as we think – i mean does a set or an overpair ever check shove a board like this? with those hands, i think you are more likely to bet call so you dont give villain a free card.
with a flush, you probably check call or bet-call as well, unless it is a baby flush.
so a check shove on this board pretty much always looks like overs with a club imo
I agree. We also have no info on villians hand. He is aggro, so why did he not 3bet us pre? He could easily have a small pair and flopped a set or a weak suited ace. We are only threatening half his stack as well.
This line will get all worse hands and most better but unmade hands to fold, but I don’t think it’s representing strength. I don’t know if you’ve shown down any of your UTG opens, which could parlay you into getting called if not. Your line to me, if I were villain, reads as a 1 club hand with UTG opening equity, which is exactly what it is. I don’t think I can make the call with anything other than the Ac. Brilliant spot to check raise, even if youre playing your hand face up, there isn’t many hands on this board he can call with. Though it would be funny to see if he called and turns over KQ with the Kc.
I think it's a stretch to think he's capable of folding if he caught any piece of the flop (pair, over pair, Ac or Kc). Heros allin bet is only ~ 2x the current pot which doesn't seem like a ton of FE. It seems like a high variance play and with 24bb there has to be a better spot.
I like bet (t$21,115) /fold better than check raise.
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