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3-3 in SB facing min raise from button.
JMR72
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December 17, 2014 - 6:12 am
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Was playing $8 – 180 sng last nite and made one fold which I wasn’t happy with afterwards. Was on around 12-14 bb not quite at bubble stage but in the antes. Waiting to shove on the bb if it’s folded to me but the button who was fairly deep stacked compared to me made a min raise. Thing is, of he shoved i probably would have called. But I folded suspecting he wanted a call from a min raise.

Should I be going all in here to a min raise from the button? Or calling to set mine & just fold if it misses?

chaos
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December 17, 2014 - 7:00 am
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I like the shove in that spot. The button may be opening quite light, there's a lot of money on the pot and you're flipping against most of his calling range anyway. With 12BB I pretty much like the situation to shove in that spot.

JMR72
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December 17, 2014 - 7:13 am
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Thanks. Next time it’s going in from that spot with a pocket pair. Would you have also called a shove from the button?

chaos
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December 17, 2014 - 7:52 am
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No, I wouldn't call a shove as in that case it's a flip in the best case scenario, while with me shoving it's a fold in the best case scenario allowing me to collect 4 blinds which is a third of my stack and when he doesn't fold we still have a good chance at winning the pot.

JMR72
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December 17, 2014 - 8:26 am
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Fair enough. My thinking was that a buttons shove range is usually wide but I get the point, he can’t fold now so my only hope is I’m flipping to any 2 over cards, thanks again.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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December 17, 2014 - 3:08 pm
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Yes shove pre.

jacobsharktank
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December 17, 2014 - 3:12 pm
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this is a fun math problem-

If button calls a shove with (AT-AK, KQ, 22-AA), we have 38.69% equity against his calling range. If he only opened with that range, we would be losing significant chips by shoving. What makes this profitable and awesome is that he's opening potentially far wider than that range, (13.1% of hands)

 

To calculate expected value of this hand, we add up the size of the pot when we're called, and do some math.

(1bb+12bb+.9bb+12bb) x .3869 = 10.02 This is the expected value of a shove when called. This is only part of the equation. Now we need to see how often we'll be called. If villain has a 20% opening range, he calls 65.5% of the time. So we take 10.02 x .655 = 6.56bb 

 

If button has an opening range of 20%, and calls 13.1%, and bb calls 6.8% (this is also something that varies- 6.8% is (88+, AJ+), we have a combined fold probability of (20-13.1)/20 x (100-6.8)/100 = .345x .932 = .322

 

To calculate our equity from the folds, we multiply the % we get through x the size of the pot when we win. So for 20% opening range and cold call range of 6.8%, we have 32.2% folds.

.322x (1+12+.9+2)= 5.12bb

so ev(shove, v= 20% and 13.1% v2= 6.8%) is 5.12+6.56= 11.68 for a net gain of .18bb (remember .5bb is no longer ours while in the small blind)

 

If you increase or decrease the opening range of villain, you can see how much youll make or lose. If villain opens 30%, he calls closer to like 35% and you make significantly more.

 

Actual math here is a teeny bit off because we get called by the bb 6.8% and then have a diff stack to calculate ev off, and sometimes both call. Because 6.8% is pretty small, but more work, I left it off if someone else wants to do it for practice.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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December 17, 2014 - 6:48 pm
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@ jacob , great post , this is something i struggle with , the math's part. All i know is that if v is pretty aggressive and has a wide opening range we could 3-bet shove really wide and it will be ev+ to do so.

 

now my question is , if we are readless , which % of hands do you think button is opening with usually? or should be opening? is their a optimal % on how wide we should be opening on the button?

 

i'd say more then 20% of hands unless they are really nitty , even then that would be questionable. 

 

Also regarding calling ranges , if we were far from the money, i'm pretty sure that it dont matter how they respond to our 3-bet shove?

JMR72
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December 17, 2014 - 7:26 pm
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I agree about the maths although it could be interesting to discuss after the event, no way your gonna work it all out on a ten second time bank.
The best you can say to yourself in that time is do I have fe? Yes or no? If it’s yes you shove? If its no you can try to work out your odds of 3-3 versus any 2 overcards? Any over pair your beat. The min raise scared me off at the time and I folded. But mostly I will be shoving that spot from now on thanks to the above advice. In push fold situations that is.

JMR72
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December 17, 2014 - 7:40 pm
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Anyway, just won a little $15 – 45 sng on stars & I only signed up 4 or 5 days ago. Got a bit lucky but I didn’t even know what push fold was until yesterday. Was playing them like regular tournaments until then using standard raises and c-bets busting me out early. I busted 3 other sng’s along the way though so lots more to learn. Keep it coming TPE.

Kalculater
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December 17, 2014 - 11:29 pm
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@VoxPopuli – I really enjoyed your explanation and math. Alot more posts like these should be on TPE.

 

@folding_aces_pre_yo – these are really hard questions to answer similar to “how brown is a stick in the amazon?”. You have to make assumptions and investigate these assumptions. Regarding your question about their calling range to our 3bet… it always matters how they respond because it changes our EV. If they call too wide there is a point where our EV becomes negative with our range. If they open a really tight range and call 100% it can be -EV. You cant particularly say “it doesnt matter.”

 

@JMR72 – Of course you cannot do all this work in a 10second time bank. This is the sort of work you should be doing away from the table to make better decisions on the felt. Congrats on the $15 bink.

JMR72
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December 18, 2014 - 3:51 am
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Yes will get to that eventually I hope, just feel like I have so many basic flaws in my game to address before I start going so deep on the maths, I do intend to improve on that also though.

chaos
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December 18, 2014 - 3:55 am
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My point of view if that, unless he's proven otherwise I assume the button is always opening wide. If I'm readless, as he hasn't had time to prove otherwise I'm going to assume he's opening wide, 30% or wider.

Kalculater
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December 18, 2014 - 4:46 am
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@JMR72 – investigating spots like these with maths, how often certain holdings flop particular hands (e.g. gutshot, top pair etc) and other off-felt reviewing will give you great insight to what you may look at as your “basic flaws”.

JMR72
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December 18, 2014 - 10:56 am
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If I can make 2 hours a week dedicated to the pure maths of poker, where do you recommend I begin?
Thanks.

jacobsharktank
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December 18, 2014 - 11:48 am
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Appreciate the love guys- the way I see it is whether you do it or not, the decisions of all players with edges at the short stack all come down to the math. Some players do it by feel and experience, but I find my way in the numbers. Humans are horrible at recognizing patterns, though we really like to think otherwise. You don't necessarily need to have this phd level of understanding to know what's going on, but running through the algebra off the table can help you realize where you net chips a lot faster than just playing and playing and playing.

 

If you have 2 hours to dedicate, I think I'd recommend looking at situations where effective stacks are between 12 and 20bb, in the small or big blind, and the button or cut off opens for a raise. Guess what their range would be, and enumerate it. (22-AA AT-AK, for example, is 13 x 6 + 16 x 4 = 142 hands out of 1326 total hands = 10.71%) Then say out loud to yourself, “With what hands can they call a shove?” For a villain opening 30%, even if they called all pairs and AT+, they're still folding (30-10.71/30) 64.3% of the time.

 

To find out if the situation is profitable (and then ~how~ profitable), run the expected value of the situation.

The pot would be (Villain's raise + blinds + antes + your shove)- the first part is multiplying that sum by the % of the time that you get folds. If in the big blind, and villain folds 64% of the time, you would multiply that sum by 64%. Next, add in the times you get called. Multiply 36% x (villains stack + your stack + blinds + antes) x your hand's equity vs his range. If your total number is greater than the number you started with (your stack size), the difference between the two is straight profit. 

 

Like all things in life, you can make this as simple or complicated as you want/feel comfortable. A follow up would be if youre in a different position, estimate how often you get through all of the villains. No villain will fold say JJ-AA, so you'd take one extra villain remaining as like 98% x 64% to know the % you get folds. Another follow up is to not only see if something is profitable or not profitable (a discrete, binary measure, either 0 or 1, profit or no profit, etc) but to compare how profitable it is and how often you lose what you risk, against other forms of making chips. Hope that helps! I feel like doing 1 or 2 hands could potentially take you that long. So play whenever you can, and simply note some hands under the criteria I listed. Take care!

JMR72
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December 18, 2014 - 1:53 pm
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I want it to be as simple as possible, but will take a look at this when I get chance. Cheers.

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