You haven’t been 3 betting much and even with the best possible 3bet bluffing hand you still feel iffy about it. This means that you need to 3bet bluff more often to keep villain from playing perfectly against you. If your 3bet stats were more active, you’d be happy getting it in here because villain would be willing to get it in here with hands you dominate.

As played, I’d still be happy 3bet getting it in in a bounty tourney. The fact that he has you covered should be enough for him to take a shot at your bounty with AQo and maybe AJs/KQs in spite of how tight you are.

If you do decide to flat, which I would not recommend, you cant just play fit or fold. You will have to float a ton of flops and turns.

The best answer will depend on how villain plays pre and post flop against you specifically.

More importantly, because you are playing tight, the fact that there are bounties to be had later doesn’t mean much to you since you A. arent playing many hands for stacks and B. won’t be keeping your stack afloat in order to cover others as the blinds go up. These same problems will prevent you from winning the top prize most times as well.

I’ve been there myself. 

If you’re gonna take shots, the key is to take them at a level where you can do so somewhat regularly so that the novelty wears off and eventually you will be able to just play good exploitive poker without worrying about the money.

Also, be careful of taking low variance lines. Playing too tight against a guy who is likely stealing a ton just lets him grind you down. This is low variance only in the sense that your profit graph will go steadily down and you will have no risk of winning.

The lowest possible variance line to take is to fold every hand. Calling pre and folding when you miss 2/3 of the time and being too tight to get much action the 1/3 of the time you do hit, is just as bad and in fact probably just causes you to lose faster.

Pick good spots (like this one. good job). Get it in. Embrace the swings.