It's Fat Harry Potter!

I can actually see folding here. You shouldn't try to read too much into the sizing. Good players aren't going to spew information in that way. Although your hand seems strong, I'd argue that it's really just a bluff-catcher that is unlikely to improve on future streets. Merf isn't raising worse for value, and when he is bluffing he's going to have a lot of equity. To defend against his bluffs, you need hands that will have good equity and playability against his range, and you have lots of better candidates. Presumably you'd play all sets and two-pair combos this way. Arguably even AQ is a better defending candidate than KJ since it has more outs when behind. Club draws are definitely better defending candidates. Basically, this is the bottom of your value range, and that makes it a standard fold to a raise.

ltcolumbo said:

Now that I have interjected all this “noise” into this, could you now elaborate on “Basically, this is the bottom of your value range, and that makes it a standard fold to a raise.”  Is Hero folding because Villian can squarely define his range and thus must be betting for value?

It's not that he can't be bluffing – he should be sometimes if he's going to raise for value, which arguably he shouldn't – but because this board is so much better for your range than for his he needs to have a lot of equity when he does it.

Assuming he has a reasonable idea of what your range looks like and constructs his own range appropriately, then whatever are the worst hands you would bet for value can't be doing well against his raising range.

The problem with calling even though you're getting good odds is that the hand isn't over yet and there are basically no turns that improve your equity. Between the times he gets there and the times he barrels you off, I think you're unlikely to win even the 18% or so of the time you'd need to. Once he raises, you have a bluff-catcher, and not a very good one. You don't have to worry about being exploited by folding this because you have so many better defending hands (stronger two-pair, sets, straights, even flush draws) that won't fold to this raise. Folding the bottom of your range ro a raise is rarely a mistake.

It might help you to think about it this way: when you raise AJ UTG and get 3-bet, you usually fold, because this is one of the worst hands you'd raise in this positon. When you raise AJ on the button, you often shove over a 3-bet, because it is towards the top of your range from this position. That's basically what's happening here: when you raise UTG and then bet this flop, KJ is one of the weaker hands you will have.