July 31, 2012
Blinds are 1k/2k with 300 ante in a $225 live event at Commerce Casino. It is 8-handed and everyone is in the money with 35 left. We are playing down to 15, who will return for Day 2.
utg+1 limps with 27k behind
MP1 limps with 37k behind
button limps with about 35k behind
SB limps (only player who has me covered, can't remember the exact size but probably 120k+)
I have A4 in BB and check, with 83k behind
I am a bit concerned about the early pos limper with 14.5 BBs, which seems like a play someone would only make with a strong hand hoping to get raised. However, limping in general at this stage in the tournament tends to be a mark of inexperience rather than a thinking player trying to trap. A case could be made for pushing AI here if I think everyone is weak, but I would be potentially risking 83k and my tournament life to win 12k if the SB decided to call, or risking a large percentage of my stack holding A4 if called by one of the shorter stacks. I'm relatively new to the table, having playing about 1 round, so my reads are minimal.
The flop is J63
SB checks, I bet out 6k hoping to take it down right there with my flush draw. utg+1 thinks for a while and goes AI for an additional 21k. MP1 tanks and also goes AI for 31k more than my bet. Button and SB folds. After taking in the 6k from each player there is 30.4k in the middle and 52k from the raises. Therefore I need to call 31k to win 82.4k, giving me pot odds of 2.7:1. If I assume that I have 12 outs to win, my card odds are 2.1:1. This was my thought process (although not as exact in the heat of the moment), so I called.
After running the numbers more, I feel like I should call a majority of the time here. The only way I'm not getting the right odds to call are if I assume the worst case scenarios: utg+1 has AA and MP1 has either 2 clubs or a set, giving me 3.1:1 and 3.6:1 odds, respectively.
My only criticism for my play would be the lead on the flop, which priced me into the hand. If I had checked and saw the 2 AIs, I probably would have folded.
July 5, 2012
prob shouldnt assume have 12 outs in this scenario with A4 against their limps and this
Much action on the flop.
I would assume you are up against AJ,KJ, sets..and most likely other flush draws
Mainly consisting of pair with flush draw hands like KcJc, QcJc, & Jc10c.
Against these ranges your ace is almost never good if you hit it & you now have
Most likely 7 potential flush outs.
In my unexecutive opinion you can shove pre and pick up the dead $.
As played…I prefer the check raise all in. with this much action after you lead
It may be a fold on the flop
July 20, 2012
I would hate jamming pre there because of the sb stack alone. OK he just limped as did others but you are still risking too much to take down the pot. If you really want to take a stab at it preflop then raise to around 8k – 10k and call anyone but fold to sb. But overall I think checking is the best option here. I don't mind leading the flop there though you aren;t going to pick up the pot that easily very often. With that action you are right that you should call. The odds are just too good to pass this spot. Alternative line is to c/f the flop but that seems pretty weak esp when you have day2 FE.
One last comment is about the utg limp – in my opinion it really doesn’t matter what hand he has there and why he is limping, it’s bad and so he isn’t a thinking player (I am rash with my judgements). If you had a dead read that this meant a monster then it would make the maths more interesting and then I guess c/f flop would become an option but you would have to be pretty sure.
you rarely if ever have your Ace pair outs (-3) and very often you are up against other flush draws, sometimes having Jxcc in their range. i would say that even for the sake of argument if you are showing a profit from a chip equity stand point you should probably let it go in terms of having a potential tournament strategy edge over the table. from the sounds of it you have the big stack to your right and some inexperienced players to your left. preserving your 34-37bb stack is going to be pretty crucial here in picking up chips the easy way later, as losing this pot would put you at push/fold (not an ideal situation for someone who can exploit other players with a deeper stack).
i dont really like any way that this hand was played but to be honest i cant craft another line i like better. im not a fan of shoving pre as you have sb who covers you and inexperienced limpers behind you as well. i would bet that their limp range is stronger than your shove range this late in the game and i cant count on all my fingers and toes how many times ive shoved a hand like this, only to have an older man nitroll me with a “weak” hand like [77-TT/AJ]. i dont like raise/calling or raise/folding preflop out of the BB because you miss out on all this potential equity that you can flop just like in this instance. the only scenario that works well is a complete rarity – where you raise pre get just callers and then bet this flop larger and win it. i doubt thats ever happening. so checking probably your best bet pre.
flop:
the 6k lead seems okay, but in your spot with the stack size dynamics i might lead stronger in order to make it clearer to your opponents that they dont have fold equity (even if they dont know what that is explicity they still know what it is intuitively). at 6k (3bb) a less experienced player with 14.5 bb might think youll fold for 11bb more and shove more optimally, putting you in a tough spot. but betting 8-10k makes it so they arent able to shove as wide on you. i doubt i ever dont lead here seeing as its impossible to win the pot on the flop here without betting. the only circumstances i could see not leading would be when im sure my opponents are the type to check Jacks they perceive as having weak kickers or not betting unless they have huge hands like overpairs or Jacks-plus-flush-draws. this way we can see turns for free and give up when we miss and face aggression.
your flop options are really only: bet/call, bet/fold, check/call (never here), check/raise (becomes unavailable here) or check/fold. and i really dislike all of them. i dont like betting with the intention of folding here but given the action behind you i could see being fine with folding and bemoaning the spot we got stuck in. it seems pretty clear you have 7 outs the majority of the time here and perhaps even 7 outs while also dodging pairing the board.
without really grinding down a good range of hands your opponents could have with pokerstove i dont know what the “answer” is here but if i had to guess which way or the other: its probably close cEV whether you call or fold but i think with your tournament edge and chip position i'd give it up.
hope this helps
July 31, 2012
One other factor that I forgot to mention was my chip swing if I won/lost. If I lose I have about 48k, or 24 BBs, which isn’t a great stack, but won’t leave me crippled. If I win the hand, I’d have about 160k, giving me more than what the chip average will be for the final 15 (128k). I remember hearing Casey mention (in a video or on the podcast, can’t remember) that sometimes in a tournament, you have to take chances to win. I thought this spot was my opportunity to gain a huge chip lead and give me a very good chance at making the final table, so I called.
utg+1 had J8, showing he obviously had no idea how to play a short stack, and
MP1 had 97, which I also thought was a weird play considering he had only invested 2k into this pot and still had 18.5 BBs to play with. I guess his thinking was that since he limped with this hand and got a draw, he had to play it.
I’ve thought about this hand some more, and if I go with straight mathematics and assume that I have an average of 9 outs here, I’m getting 2.6:1 to win. Also factoring in my chip stack if I win makes the call more tempting. However, I’'ll still have a healthy chip stack if I just fold, but would get very pissed if I saw a club or A on that turn/river.
As it happens, I miss my 10 outs and eventually get knocked out with AK against QJ to the big stack to my right a level later. I finished 19th.
August 5, 2012
unlucky man, ive just started playing live lately, and its a totally different game, you often get 3-4 limpers in every pot and you get stuck on what you should do with your mediocre hand that you know your getting sick odds to call with, but you know you can get yourself into big trouble with… still getting the hang of it haha
this hand will be featured in two week's time in my continuing 3-part article on cEV and tEV.
the first part can be found here: …..ed-part-1/
MovesLikeDarvin said:
this hand will be featured in two week's time in my continuing 3-part article on cEV and tEV.
the first part can be found here: …..ed-part-1/
NICE!
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
24 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Philbro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12007
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1