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$2.20 Satty into the Quarter Million: Can I find a fold here?
Shadowplay
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March 20, 2011 - 2:11 pm
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From where I am (UTG+1) and with about 80 folks left (49 get in), and with blinds to go up in less than a minute, am I over thinking this?  Is it a clear shove or not?

 

 

Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t150/t300 Blinds + t25 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Tuck1950 (BB): BB = 18.3, t5485
DORYNEL7 (UTG): BB = 14.6, t4385
Hero (UTG+1): BB = 16.3, t4886
bigshift45 (UTG+2): BB = 27.1, t8121
Utsende33 (MP1): BB = 29.8, t8945
SeniorDalton (MP2): BB = 9.6, t2880
FlyingPixman (CO): BB = 6.8, t2045
Nazevnik (BTN): BB = 16.2, t4854
WILWIL999 (SB): BB = 23.6, t7082

Pre Flop: (t675) Hero is UTG+1 with Q of clubs A of hearts

bennymacca
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March 20, 2011 - 6:33 pm
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overthinking it imo. 

 

i think this is a clear shove. if someone woke up with a hand then bl

Shadowplay
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March 20, 2011 - 11:01 pm
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Cool, thanks for the affirmation.

G0liath
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March 21, 2011 - 5:02 am
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I don’t think either shoving or folding is wrong. It is a satellite so you don’t actually need to aquire all the chips in play. That said these monkeys call you with hands like KQ here coz it’s ‘pretty’.

I shove

G0liath
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March 21, 2011 - 5:07 am
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Double post

sammyboy
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March 21, 2011 - 8:56 am
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Depends on table tendancies….  I'm sure correct play for rest of table would be to fold to your shove with all but the most monstrous of monsters, but are they doing that in a $2 sat? 

Have you seen people calling wide?

Anyone you're worried about shoving into? i.e. if SB got his 7k stack by calling shove w/ KJ then you might wanna think about folding and shoving into tighter players who's tourney is over if they loose.

 

Totally readless I think I'd rather shove ATC bvb rather than hope the whole table wont call….. (as its a satelite)

GaryLQ
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March 21, 2011 - 9:23 am
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The bigger stacks will have an ultra-tight calling range here if they've got half a brain, probably only AA or KK. You only really need to get through the two shorties, so I think the shove is good, they need to double and might call with weaker aces or KQ. Nearer the bubble I would fold, but with 31 eliminations to go you certainly can't rely on folding your way to a seat just yet.

lespaulgman
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March 21, 2011 - 1:32 pm
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sammyboy said:

Depends on table tendancies….  I'm sure correct play for rest of table would be to fold to your shove with all but the most monstrous of monsters, but are they doing that in a $2 sat? 

Have you seen people calling wide? — Wide calling is exactly what you want with AQ. You are only getting value from weaker Aces. If I have some nut that will call with any Ace then you better believe he is going to see my stack here a lot of the time.

Anyone you're worried about shoving into? i.e. if SB got his 7k stack by calling shove w/ KJ then you might wanna think about folding and shoving into tighter players who's tourney is over if they loose. — These are exactly the people that you want to call you off. I think if your mental process has you folding for these types of fears you are going to need to rethink your strategy some.

 

Totally readless I think I'd rather shove ATC bvb rather than hope the whole table wont call….. (as its a satelite)

— As far as this hand goes I don't think I just jam it here as I am in early position and I don't want to try to get it through that many people. I would minraise it and then call the two shorties for sure and make a decision if anyone else jammed it. You are way far away from the seats (effectively the money) so I wouldn't really let that creep into your thinking, it is pretty irrelevant.

sammyboy
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March 21, 2011 - 6:35 pm
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Les I appreciate what your saying if it wasn't a satelite,  but our goal here is to survive another 31 places not accumulate chips.

I think just picking up the blinds on a late position steal with a far weaker hand should see us into the money – and thats all we want.  let others risk their seat by getting carried away with fairly decent hands like AQ.  Hoepfully youve got reads on the people to your left and you know who to shove into.

 

Shoving into 8 players = too much risk

 

Thoughts?

hawkeyeK9
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March 21, 2011 - 6:38 pm
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$2 satty and you get AQ with 16bb's…….>SHOVE!!!

bennymacca
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March 21, 2011 - 7:44 pm
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lespaulgman said:


— As far as this hand goes I don't think I just jam it here as I am in early position and I don't want to try to get it through that many people. I would minraise it and then call the two shorties for sure and make a decision if anyone else jammed it. You are way far away from the seats (effectively the money) so I wouldn't really let that creep into your thinking, it is pretty irrelevant.

i think miniraising is a lot higher variance in this spot because i think we would rather villain lay down 55-77 rather than shove on us and we have to flip it off. 
ytseshred
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March 22, 2011 - 12:26 pm
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Typically I may lean towards folding, but since everyone at the table is pretty close to your chip stack I think that makes it easier to shove this from early position.  The biggest stack at the table has 30bbs, so he has to wake up w/ a hand to gamble half his stack.  Still have a ways to go with 31 players to bust out, so I would look to get it in a spot like this where you still have FE against everyone at the table.

FkCoolers
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March 22, 2011 - 4:10 pm
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Simple shove. If blinds go up before it gets to you and you fold the SB and BB you're down to 10.5 BB here. 

I can't see any argument for folding. 

Cougars4444
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March 22, 2011 - 5:06 pm
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I'd shove as well.  It is a $2 satty so can't give everyone at the table that much credit but if they have any idea about proper satty strategy they should be folding almost everything here except for the two shorties.

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