January 10, 2017
First level of a $570 tourney. 30 minute blind levels on day 1 and starting stack of 20k. We start this hand w/18k effective. HJ raises to 150, we call bb w/98cc. Not sure if I should consider a 3 bet here. Flop J75ssh. I check call 150. Turn 10h. He bets 500 and I check raise to 1800. River 2h. I lead out for 2600 and he jams 16k.
No real player reads at this point other than villains appearance. He is wearing a hoodie but absolutely nothing else to go on. To me this seems like a player dependent spot. With that turn card there are a number of river cards that villain will be able to bluff with.
February 8, 2017
I think I’m folding here all day every day unless I have an extremely strong read, even vs. villains that seem quite splashy. It sucks, but you’ve shown a lot of strength and villain is still making a huge shove. As much as I think ‘waiting for a better spot’ is an extremely poor line of thinking in most situations, it is probably a good idea when we hold a bluff-catcher that doesn’t have blockers to the flush and a stack behind that is still extremely deep compared to the blinds. Even if calling might be slightly +EV vs. range (which I suspect it is not), you’re very likely to have many opportunities to pick up uncontested pots and make some big hands before you are under significant pressure from the blinds.
joelshitshow said
What was the reaction when you check-raised the turn? How long did it take him to call the 1300? How quickly did he shove the river after your bet?
I’ve made a lot of mistakes over my career by thinking along these lines. It becomes more relevant if you have a lot of history vs. villain, but unless you are among the top 5% of live tell readers in the world, you are usually better served by only considering stuff like this in very close spots. I don’t think this spot is nearly close enough to spend any time thinking about reactions and timing tells.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Three-bet pre, check-raise flop, check-raise bigger on the turn. All of the above related to being as deep as you are.
As played, it’s important to look beyond the fact that you have a straight. Villain either has a flush or he’s bluffing. So there’s no real reason to call with this hand if you wouldn’t call with 7s Xs or some other weak bluff-catcher you might hold here. If you had a heart, that would be a significant blocker. Without one, it’s probably a fold. You might even be blocking some of his bluffs (87 or something).
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