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180man final table Stars, AKo on BTN facing 23BB jam from the SB - is calling correct given it's a FT?

jamo

Grinding Micros

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November 10, 2012 - 4:36 pm

This is the final table of a $4.50 180 man on Stars. If this was just a +cEV spot then I think this is an easy call with AK given that he could be jamming ATs+,AJo+,KQ,JTs+,22+ etc., but given that it's a final table, are we throwing away our equity here? We need 44% to make this a break-even proposition, and with that range stated we're 53.543%. However, given that 46.457% of the time our equity goes down considerably, should we fold? Or is the fact that 53.5% of the time we take the chip lead show us that we have to call in this spot?

Villain is running at 15/14 with a 3b of 3% over 121 hands. His only 3b has come from MP so this is the first time we've seen a 3b in a steal/resteal situation.

Can anyone show me how to work out the Maths of this spot, please? i.e. how does a call against his 'perceived' range affect our equity in % terms and $ terms?

Poker Stars $4.10+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t600/t1200 Blinds + t125 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

SB: BB = 23.1, t27765
BB: BB = 12.5, t14948
UTG: BB = 38.6, t46289
UTG+1: BB = 8.5, t10167
UTG+2: BB = 45.2, t54253
MP1: BB = 40.7, t48788
MP2: BB = 13.7, t16418
CO: BB = 9.0, t10798
Hero (BTN): BB = 33.8, t40574

Pre Flop: (t2925) Hero is BTN with A of diamonds K of hearts
6 folds, Hero raises to t2400, SB raises to t27640 all in, 1 fold, Hero ???

jamo

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November 10, 2012 - 4:56 pm

Right I've actually had a go at working out the difference of calling vs folding. Let me know if you can see some mistakes in my calculations:

Our equity if we fold is 13.38%

Our equity if we call and win = 18.84%, which happens 53.543% of the time = 10.0875%

Our equity if we call and lose = 7.31%, which happens 46.457% of the time = 3.396%

Add those two figures together you get = 13.4835%, which is 0.1% better than folding. This works out at about +$0.78, which to me seems very marginal.

If we assume a much tighter range, given that it's a final table of say… 44+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs our hand wins 48.957% of the time.

So…

Our equity if we call and win = 18.84%, which happens 48.957% of the time = 9.22%

Our equity if we call and lose = 7.31%, which happens 51.043% of the time = 3.73%

Adding those two together we get 12.95%, which is less than if we'd folded in the first place. It works out at a bout -$3.17, which for me makes this a fold.

What are your thoughts?

badabing78

Hitting The Circuit

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November 10, 2012 - 6:29 pm

instacall, if you lose you still have 10bb left, if you win you are chipleader.

in addition the levels go up pretty fast in those tourneys, 5mins if im not wrong.

.....gspot.com/

StrangeFame

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November 11, 2012 - 1:22 am

Easy snap call.
jamo said:

We need 44% to make this a break-even proposition, and with that range stated we're 53.543%.

Villain's stats are a little unsettling but regardless, we have more than enough equity to fist pump/call here. We have 53.5% (closer to 56-57% after card removal imo) vs. villain's assumed range, and we only need 44% equity. None of us can afford to pass up sexy spots like this.

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