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January 23, 2013
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got a Q about this hand
Opener is running 42/12 over a small sample, we're still pretty early into it.
The question is , is this an automatic reship, or is it ok to fold here ?
Is it wrong to be more inclined to call if he's shoving , rather than when he makes this move?
His stats at that point, indicate that he doesn't know what he's doing, which imo makes his move stronger and left me thinking we're only flipping at best and this early i didn't want to risk that percentage of my stack on a flip at best, and with that many players left to act i'm not happy reshipping but that could be too nitty on my part.
also ignore the river as it obviously didn't matter in the decision making, just would like to know if this is potentially a leak or not.
Poker Stars $4.10+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t25/t50 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2197041
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
UTG: t640 12.80 BBs
Hero (UTG+1): t1660 33.20 BBs
UTG+2: t1695 33.90 BBs
MP1: t2300 46 BBs
MP2: t1198 23.96 BBs
CO: t1485 29.70 BBs
BTN: t1070 21.40 BBs
SB: t1560 31.20 BBs
BB: t4300 86 BBs
Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is UTG+1 with Q
A
UTG raises to t350, 5 folds, BTN raises to t1070 all in, 2 folds, UTG calls t290 all in
Flop: (t1355) 4 6
2 (2 players – 2 are all in)
Turn: (t1355) 6 (2 players – 2 are all in)
River: (t1355) Q (2 players – 2 are all in)
August 23, 2012
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I think I lean towards a fold here unless villain recently lost a big pot.
February 28, 2013
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Yea, I'm leaning towards a fold. 42/12 but how often has he shoved out of that 12 PFR?
January 23, 2013
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he's been sitting on the shortstack for a couple of orbits , he was pretty active when he was deeper but obv no preflop allins so far
April 20, 2013
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That is a huge open, but if this is a turbo I tend to lean toward shipping it. Since you would call all in if he had shoved and this is essentially a shove. If this is not a turbo, there are better spots, but I would imagine he is doing this with plenty of pairs that you are flipping with and possibly A10s+ or AJo+. Unless you have seen him raise this big with a monster, it is hard to really say what it is for sure (the argument for folding in a well structured tournament), but you are pretty short and I think this could be a solid gamble and you are ahead of a lot of people's shoving range.
March 8, 2013
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If he doesn't know what he's doing, I'm much more inclined to shove here than if he's a decent player. A clueless guy could well just be opening without even considering his stack, in which case he may actually be folded when shoved on a decent amount of the time, even though he never should.
Against a guy who normally shoves 12BB and then suspiciously makes this raise, I just fold.
January 23, 2013
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do we take into account how early we are at the table? so far no one mentioned that , as i mentioned , in my thought process i was thinking if we get called behind, we're never happy are we?
or does this not happen often enough to take into consideration?
the $4.50 180's are non-turbo, and 15min levels.
August 23, 2012
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We are on the button, fairly LP so we don't have to worry about getting called behind too often. If we do get called behind, we are going to be in very bad shape as it is likely JJ or QQ+. It happens enough that AQ should definitely be a fold in this spot unless villain is being spewy. This spot is so dependent on reads on UTG that nash is almost useless because I doubt anyone in a $4 is shoving tight enough from UTG without antes. To give you perspective, 12-13bbs UTG should be 5.9% TT+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs+ and our BU reshoving range should be JJ+, AK.
January 23, 2013
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packallama said:
We are on the button, fairly LP so we don't have to worry about getting called behind too often. If we do get called behind, we are going to be in very bad shape as it is likely JJ or QQ+. It happens enough that AQ should definitely be a fold in this spot unless villain is being spewy. This spot is so dependent on reads on UTG that nash is almost useless because I doubt anyone in a $4 is shoving tight enough from UTG without antes. To give you perspective, 12-13bbs UTG should be 5.9% TT+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs+ and our BU reshoving range should be JJ+, AK.
I'm sorry i just noticed the HH converter messed up the bold font , we are UTG+1
August 23, 2012
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That makes this a clear insta-fold.
February 28, 2013
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Fold and wait for a sunnier day. After playing on bovada for a while and remembering what it is like not having any hud stats and playing with players who don’t have a clue, this is how they bet their monsters. I kept shoving over people and they would always show up with a monster.
At the very least, you are flipping, a lot of the time you are dominated and I just don’t like risking that many bb’s in such a marginal situation when you clearly will have a chance to stack him. In a re-entry/rebuy or turbo, that completely changes and I shove all day.
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