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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy 18 left Stars $3rebuy $20kgtd Shove…

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18 left Stars $3rebuy $20kgtd Shove 66 with 20bbs to HJ open?

Psellos

Grinding Micros

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July 12, 2012 - 1:14 pm

hi all, really deep in the tourney everybody is short now biggest stack is 45bbs, the opener in this hand got his chips with a donkish move in a 3 way allin with KJo where he called off 25bbs with 2 people all in and has since been pretty active when folded to. his is 25/15 over 195 hands but is opening 33% when folded to in the cutoff. the blinds go up every 10 mins in this one so ill be down to 14-15bb within the next orbit. is this too marginal a spot to take this deep in the tourney or is 1 we have to take if we are playing FTW. i hate 3bet folding and dont see it as an option but is a jam too heavy? thanks guys.

Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t20000/t40000 Blinds + t4000 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Arcsi74 (CO): BB = 4.0, t160200
reysak (BTN): BB = 28.6, t1142264
bubbleboybr (SB): BB = 17.7, t707050
Hero (BB): BB = 19.9, t796089
spiralstrahl (UTG): BB = 4.9, t196196
PacGomez (UTG+1): BB = 25.2, t1007039
delphi2012 (UTG+2): BB = 26.4, t1055526
caps42 (MP1): BB = 44.4, t1774081
gottheaces89 (MP2): BB = 34.5, t1381106

Pre Flop: (t96000) Hero is BB with 6 of spades 6 of clubs
4 folds, gottheaces89 raises to t100000, 3 folds, Hero ??

p3dactor

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July 12, 2012 - 2:17 pm

Based on your reads of the villain, I'm shipping it in here. 3-bet fold is not an option with 19 bb unless you have a very specific read on this guy about his 4 bets. You got fold equity, plus you're probably ahead here and if called, flipping (most likely). 66 is kind of the cutoff for me here though I think….would be nicer to have 88+ of course 🙂

FloppedBackdoorTrips

Wooster, OH

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July 12, 2012 - 8:52 pm

I really hate jamming low pairs w/o much FE (since he's calling way too much), but at this point I think you have to take it, since what I remember from these big Stars tournaments (it's been awhile), the payouts are pretty flat until the final table. So you want to be setting yourself up to finish near the top.

But DEFINITELY don't 3B/fold or 3B/call.

Funnnuraba

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July 16, 2012 - 9:54 am

I don't mind a JAM here, I think it should be decently +EV and if you win you can probably crush your table.

Nevertheless I don't love flipping 4 my whole stack in a 3Dollar turney. Even if you fold you still have around 20BB and even though there is an ugly stack directly to your left(worse 4 you if he just got crippled, awesome if he is just blinding down) you should be able to steal the blinds(esp in a 3Dollar tourney) or at least find a better spot.

If you feel its not gonna be a walk in the park over these guys and they are gonna make your life miserable you probably have to take this spot.

Nokaman

Newington, CT

Lighting Money On Fire

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July 16, 2012 - 2:13 pm

Pretty sure I’m shipping here, but can see the merits of folding. I just think this is too good of a spot. You probably get this guy to fold better (77,88), and I doubt he’s gonna be snapping with hands we’re flipping against KQ,KJ,A9/A8,etc. etc. Definitely have a bunch of FE in this spot and in this structure, especially to a 3r donk who isn’t gonna wanna get it in unless he has an actual hand.

But never 3bet/call or 3b/f. You’ll just induce shoves from hands we’re flipping against and is a pretty big icm blunder. Just shove and take down the pot.

EDIT – ehh he prob calls KQ bc it's the stars nuts but you get my point. A lot of hands that he can be opening here, Ax,Kx,Q8+j9+, etc. etc. won't be able to call this shove profitably.

bennymacca

Adelaide Australia

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July 16, 2012 - 7:38 pm

I really hate jamming low pairs w/o much FE (since he’s calling way too much), but at this point I think you have to take it, since what I remember from these big Stars tournaments (it’s been awhile), the payouts are pretty flat until the final table. So you want to be setting yourself up to finish near the top.

But DEFINITELY don’t 3B/fold or 3B/call.

I actually think we have a ton of fold equity here given we will cripple the opener if he calls and loses. I think this is a ship just about every time given the reads in villain

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hapetimes

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July 20, 2012 - 5:57 am

ship rip and win the flip!!!

kasspav

Athens, Greece

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