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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy 17bb in BB vs MP open from 39bb sta…

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17bb in BB vs MP open from 39bb stack - Can we expect much fold equity pre?

michaeldi11on

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June 9, 2015 - 8:35 pm

PokerStars - $8+$0.80|80/160 Ante 16 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 26.29 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.27, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 73)
MP+1: 39.14 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
MP+2: 22.73 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 11.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
CO: 36.03 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
BTN: 35.3 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 13.56, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 59)
SB: 48.78 BB (VPIP: 11.61, PFR: 9.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 113)
Hero (BB): 16.89 BB
UTG: 76.31 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 98)
UTG+1: 73.9 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 19.64, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 56)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has  9 K 

fold, fold, fold, [color=red]MP+1 raises to 2.25 BB[/color], fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.25 BB

Flop: (5.9 BB, 2 players)  4 4 3 
Hero checks, [color=red]MP+1 bets 2.63 BB[/color], fold

MP+1 wins 5.9 BB

michaeldi11on

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June 9, 2015 - 8:39 pm

Basically I just flatted and check folded the flop. How's everyone playing this from 14bb-18bb? Whats the shortest stack that you think the 39bb will raise-fold into?

His VPIP/PFR is 25/10 over 39 hands. He's raised first in 5/19 times so it's quite a lot over a small sample. His flop bet is 83% so he just bets everything but i didn't think he'd believe a check shove and would likely call with all his Ax and maybe even some good KX.

Foucault

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June 9, 2015 - 11:26 pm

Hold Em Resources calculator can give you an idea of what an optimal jamming range might look like here, and you can adjust Villain's opening range as you like. Even if it shows a jam to be profitable, though, you still have to determine whether calling is even more profitable. You're right that with this stack you can't expect a lot of folds, which means that it's important to have a lot of equity when called, and unfortunately Villain's calling range will contain most/all hands that dominate you and few if any that yo dominate, so off the top of my head, I'm inclined to say you played it perfectly.

michaeldi11on

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June 10, 2015 - 5:19 pm

Thanks Andrew, appreciate the feedback

folding_aces_pre_yo

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June 11, 2015 - 6:31 am

This is a intresting post 🙂

I do believe we have fold equity at this stack depth , depending on the reads you have on your opponent and how often they fold. You see Many bad players r/f even when they're getting extremly good odds on the call pre and they fail to recongise that also Many players fail to reconise that they could 3-bet shove any two here even at this stack depth.

if u had shoved here ,

there's $600 in the pot , you'be risking $2700 to win 600.

the total pot would be $3300 after you have shoved , so villian would need to call around $2340 to win $960

villian would be getting 1.4 to 1 on the call , so basically villian would need around 41% equity on the call.

If u had a tight image , vllian will fold more often then not , since he's going to need decent amount of equity on the call, but if he thinks your shoving with a wide range , he should be calling pretty damm often , unless he's just terrible ,so ya really does depend on how tight/loose his calling range is.

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