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The blinds were 600/300/50. My image was probably between aggro and spewy as I shoved a couple of times in the past couple of orbits to build up my stack from below average to top 10 (~30K). There are two shorter stacks to my left and the tournament CL w/ ~55K (villain) is at my table… he has played smaller pocket pairs kinda fishy and getting lucky on turn or river to make a set vs. tptk type of hands (calling all 3 streets). 33 players left and 9 pay >3.5K up top.
The hand:
I open the pot from UTG+1 (A
10
) making it 1200. MP shorty (~7000) smooth calls, and so does Bu (villain). The flop comes:
QJ4
I make a std CB of 3K. MP shoves (which I would easily snap). Then Bu makes it 15K, and states to me “I will call your shove”
BELLS & Whistles going off… The floor confirmed his verbal was binding.
Reads on villain: He never got too out of line, just calling down his small pairs on monster flops to hit his sets (like 4 or 5 times–luckbox). Older, 40-50, used terms that appeared like he was competent player (equity, floating, stop and go, etc); he stated that he authored Leadership/Mgt
books. And finally, made a brag about playing 5/10NL cash.
Possible hand range I put him on is: 44,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh7h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,AdTc,AdTh,AdTs, AsTd,AsTh,KJo-KTo,QTo+,JTo… some of these can be discounted as played, but this is the full range giving me roughly 40% equity versus the full range.
The question now is… do we ship it here knowing he has to call and that he almost always has a made flush? Call and c/f any non turn (which he is no longer bound to call my action and my least favorite)? Or fold and find a better spot because I have plenty of chips to work with?
Spoiler after some feedback and guidance…
June 22, 2010
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This is one of those, you need a solid read times. He is either playing you by saying he would call your shove, not thinking it was binding. Maybe he has a set or made a flush and is trying to trap you. The fact that you said he seemed to be a thinking player, makes me cautious. If true he is aware of your outs and knows he is ahead with the set or flush. Even though you have the nut Flush draw you will only make it roughly 29% agianst a made flush, if you consider that he has a set and you include the broadway straight as an out, then you have about a 36% to win. I think I would lay it down here.
"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."
I agree with the post above. The fact that he says “I will call your shove” leads me to believe he really isn't that confident with his hand. I think his most likely holdings are broadway cards with the Kh. He could also easily have 44, QJ, or Q with 10h. A flush is also a possibility but I think it's unlikely based on his comment. Given that information I think you have to fold. You definitley can't call 12k more of your stack and then c/f the turn. That would definitely be the worst line out of them all based on the fact that it's roughly half your stack. Also I'm assuming the pot was roughly 4800ish. I'd like a flop bet closer to 2k, especially since you are calling the shorty regardless if you bet 2k or 3k. But in this case you would've saved 1k, I know it's not a lot but it adds up. This is a tough spot and you can definitely find a better spot to get it in. You are more than likely drawing to 7-9 outs twice unless broadway gets you there as well. Fold and save your 40bb stack for a better spot.
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