This is Danny, yes.  I hope you enjoy the podcasts.

I think we can debate all 4 streets.  I do think opening here is completely standard; have a suited ace is especially good when deep.  I would open this hand from any position at these stack depths.  When in the 20-50BB range, I tend to fold these hands from up front.

On the flop, betting seems fine to me, but several 2+2 posters think this is a check.  I don’t agree, there is plenty of value to get from 9x, 8x, weaker Ax, and draws.  The turn is unlikely to make the board safer; only a 2/3/4 are complete blanks.  Why not bet now.  They argue we can’t get 3 streets from worse; but I’d rather get some value while my range and hand are definitely ahead of Villains.

The turn, I think I misplayed.  We do need to check some Ax one pair hands, and this is surely a good one.  We have an easy call, with our OESD, and our value targets aren’t as wide now (Villain will fold some of his weakest hands that called the flop). There were no timing tells on the turn..

In retrospect, I actually like a blocker bet on the river.  We can get looked up by lesser 2 pairs, and Villain is unlikely to bluff raise a bet.  I could have bet say, 1100, and saved 1200 against the hands that call me, but would have bet themselves. 

As to whether to call the river…I didn’t really have a solid read on Villain, and I thought it was just possible I could beat some of his Value…he might after all, think his JT is good here.

Maniac:  Villain definitely has more Ax suited than you are giving him.  However, you need to be careful about looking at his whole preflop range, and evaluating that on the river.   Some of those hands like K9 are folding the flop.  Some of the stronger hands will have raised at some point, like QTo, if it called the flop is definitely raising the turn.

I think you might be misranging Villain in several spots. Of the Ax suited:  He might have raised 2 pair, or even AT on the turn.  The QTo is almost certainly raising the turn.  I am not sure he has T8o to start with.  98s will sometimes raise the flop.  99 and 88 will raise at some point.

That leaves: 6 combos of JT.  4 combos of AT.  7 combos of 87/76 suited.  2 combos of A7s.  One combo of T9s.  I think those are all there for sure.  Whether he calls the turn bet with Ax suited, no draw is debatable.  There are probably some other hands that I am leaving out.  I think he might get to the river with some hands like K9, K8, Q9, Q8 that are now flushes.  Come to think of it, there are actually a lot more flushes than you (or I, at the table) are giving Villain credit for.  All of his 9x and 8x with DD are calling flop, and picking up a flush draw on turn.  How many flushes is dependent on just how low he takes his 2/3 gappers SC’s before the flop.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see this player type show up with 96s or 85s here, though I think that is too loose.

Seeing how many flushes there are makes me really dislike my river call.  Whether there is value in a small blocker bet, to get paid off by his JT/T9 is debatable, but it certainly feels better than check call.  

Thanks almo.  I do think this Villain had more suited connectors in his preflop range than you gave him.  

I think it is very unlikely he just flats a set on turn.  

I still like Bet/fold better than check call.