August 4, 2013
hmmm, his raise is huge on flop. i know i'm personally incapable of folding AA there but i think he has a 5 in his hand more often than not. i would want to know a little more about game flow…how much he's raising, does he have any sizing tells, etc. the only other possibilities IMO are that he slow played KK or he is on a complete bluff (in which case his raise size is absurd). him raising so big makes it unlikely he has just one jack in his hand but people do crazy things in live tournaments. tough spot
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Absolutely can't ever think about folding here. Villain should never be making it 70k and folding so we should be getting it in there every time and expecting to see stuff like AJ, QQ and maybe AQss or something. Once we see a 70k raise we can rule out villain ever being a good player since that's not a balanced sizing at all, so we can assume he's going to have a wider getting-it-in range on this flop versus our 3-betting range than he should have. He's also never 'inducing' since his raise is too big for us to ever assume any kind of fold equity – if anything it makes less sense to do this with a value hand than it does with a bluff, since it's so hard for us to get it all-in.
For villain to have 54s in his range here is pretty bad, it's a massive slowroll on his part so commiserations on that. It's never nice to get slowrolled, even if he was genuinely thinking about it and was just nitrolling. Opening it preflop in his spot is meh, I guess it's not the worst, and flatting the 3-bet is fine too when you make it so small (would definitely make it bigger, especially if we know he's passive), but once he flops trips there it's ridiculous for him to even think about folding.
This is just a cooler. Don't worry too much about it. People play bad in live tournaments, so folding AA on a blank board like this to one raise is rarely likely to be a good idea. I think the more interesting question is what do we do with QQ here – I think I would struggle to fold that one too, but it's definitely a lot closer. We just don't have enough information to fold AA here, there aren't enough 5x or JJ combos in villain's range.
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