hey thanks for running it through there. i didn't mention it last night because i ran to bed shortly after, but i figured icmizer would show it as a fold. it feels like it should be a fold, but i was thinking this may go over the edge because icm isn't accounting for our relative edge..but our edge shouldn't really increase theoretically too much when having 20bb over having just 17bb (my fold stack)…except that is if everyone in that 20bb range has slightly under my stack now, giving me additional fold/fear equity because i cause bustouts instead of “near-bust out”

does all that make sense? i don't want my play to come down to “this hand is pretty” but yah haha. we had a good run. shame i couldn't close it for everyone!

maybe that happens when we fold here. my dad happened to see the last hand, where i called all in when i could have folded to that other guy. he sort of laughed too. i should have folded and taken the 50-60% (% chance getting called x his chance of losing and moving me up a payspot) instead of calling for the 20-30% chance at a 9-10bb stack, where i'm still not even out of the woods. maybe. not really sure. writing it out, it seems to be closer. (to be clear talking about the call all in with 2-2.5bb or something)

SIGABA said:

That was really fun to be railing you for that mtt!  And a big thanks to TPE for making this even possible.

 

I saw the hand, and I look at it now, and I keep jumping back and forth between calling and folding.  I don't know.  In game I could see myself going either way.  I guess if the ICM calculator says it's a fold, then it is.

 

Great mtt bro.  It was great watching you!

Hey dude! It was great having a rail! While most players make icm blunders, don't fall into the trap of being a slave to icm either 🙂 The calculator doesn't account for the % edge we have over the remainder of the field (it's incredibly complex and probably not calculable), and our decision was changed only slightly because of it. ICM is a snapshot calculation/conversion of your chips to $ based on what's going on. You don't realize your icm-noted equity ever because the only way that takes place is through intervention (chopping). 

actually, lol, come on flatting has to be the worst of all options! we can't put in 9-10% of our stack, even when in position. we have Q high and if villain opens wide (our reason for playing with him anyway), then he's certainly cbetting, and that means we're doing what exactly? we can shove i suppose, but on how many board run outs are we able to do that? now what % of board run outs is that? now how often do we win uncontested when that happens? now how often do we win when called? all these small subsets of possibilities have varying impact on the final outcome.

yah the two options in my head are definitely fold or shove, and certainly leaning toward fold after hearing that about my edge lol. self analysis didn't really lead me to think i had a tremendous one or anything, but hearing it from someone else who watched a lot of the game helps me immensely. but sheesh some of those guys were bad when we got to the bubble. i still can't believe i got a guy to level himself into a call with AJ that one hand i shoved over with. I think it was on the bubble and i think i shipped 25bb over an open from lp into short blind stacks with AK. he's opening with a hand that is willing to call the short stacks for sure. he's not necessarily willing to get it in against me. (remember this is why i 3b that K4o and Ax or whatever when the blinds had like 2-3bb) You're doing great against any 2bb all in when there's already like 6bb out there and it cost you 2 lol. Anyway, I shove there making him think I know he's willing to call them but not me, so my hand looks more like a steal than it is. It's a shove in order to get him to call when he has a hand like AT-AQ if that makes sense? Like I'm not getting value from those hands when i 3b necessarily because is he 4betting those hands? If he calls, he's wary on the flop. So I go for max value. so fun. It may have been a mistake now that I think further because i think i get 4bet bluffs, but i then think given table dynamics I probably do better just shoving. I look full of shit and it leveled him.

pckrrr said:

 

Hey dude it doesn't matter that we have position, and no one's talking about being afraid of playing post flop. Look at the stack sizes. You're talking about putting in 10% of your stack right now, and then you don't have the lead. Being in position doesn't really help us when we're this short because he has the betting impetus. You're basically talking about getting all in on the flop (really no matter what you say, look at spr if we flat. there's not a whole lot of post flop play) when he cbets and then he needs to fold. We have a pretty hand, and really that's the reason I think you're advocating flat being an option. Look at stacks. Look at stacks next hand when everyone drops down by 25%! There's no way around it. You're talking about investing far too much of our stack.

 

Now, on balance again. I don't know how much you know about bovada, but the tables are 100% anonymous. There are only tournament entry numbers. If you are player1, you are player1 the entire tournament. This site caters almost exclusively to sports betters. They don't have synronized breaks, you don't see mucked cards if someone calls and loses, and there is only one HUD that i know exists. This site is not full of regs. You'll see plenty of fishy (not just aggro bad fishy, just generic loose/passive ck/fold fishy) the entire length of most tournaments, of all buyins. There is no need for more balance in mtts where you get maybe 100 hands with someone. We simply don't have time for anyone to gather intel on our ranges in a useful manner. What always takes place is someone from early/mp opens, I'll flat premiums when players behind or the current opener call for it. After flatting, almost every time you'll see someone jam with too wide a value range. We already do lots of balancing. We open with all sorts of hands in late position, none of which are dictated by hand strength but by stack sizes. That is preflop balancing. We don't need to take it further when no one is going to take advantage of us. Sure some people will be auto-wary of your flats, but as a whole, the players on this site in general will level themselves. They'll see your flat as weak every time. This would be completely different if there was any form of monitoring between tournaments. Obviously you can't flat with only premiums everytime against a reg with a hud you have 1k hands on in mtts or else you'll never get your action and be snapped off more often when you 3bet.