September 14, 2014
If u have a read that the intitial raiser has a r/f range at around 15bb then yeah you could 3bet/f here but given that you dont have those reads i just think that v will be4-bet jamming a ton here given the effecitve stacks , he will be getting good odds to 4-bet gii with a wider range.
so i just think this is a fold pre IMO.
Jacob, I say this as a constructive feedback comment but this seems really bad. You truly don't have any significant reads with those stats. Generally speaking, people on Bovada call super light. So you are 3betting oop with a hand that does not play well at all. A majority of time you are getting called here, then you would have to hope for a good board to potentially double barrel or triple for a significant portion of your stack or all of it. These are not the spots you wanna take in a turbo bud.
I think this is bad. As hawkeye mentions these stats are not a particularly good read as it is a small sample and his stats are not even loose here. Even so, given he has not raised preflop but has played some hands (not being sure if he has limped or has called a raise due to his VPIP) he is probably weighted to having a stronger hand here even from late position. The flatter also complicates things as people will get very stubborn in these spots.
As for our hand, T5o plays terribly postflop for those times that the cutoff, button or both call our 3bet.
Myself, I am shoving my whole range here as there is too much in the pot already giving villains fabulous odds to call with medium PPs, broadways etc.
September 14, 2014
You seem like you know your stuff , which is really good.
I must say though , the caculations u gave regarding 27.95% equity to break even is incorrect lol.
when CO shoves you'll be getting 2.5 to 1 , which mean's your going to need 28.6% equity to break even and against that range you gave above , (55+, AT+, KJ+; 11.76%), you've got 27.01% equity.
I think the best thing to do is construct a 3-bet/f , 3bet/c and a 3-bet shove range.
i'm not saying 3-bet/f is terrible at these stacksizes , it can be very profitable to do so , but your hand does take a part into it as well , there's a lot of varliables involved I.E opponents tendencies , stacks, postions , dynamics ect.
for instance with this hand T5o in this spot , i'd rather just 3-bet shove , if you really think your opponent is r/f way to often espically, then again at these effective stacks they may get a good price on the call , were as if we were lets say 21bb effective you would have more FE when you squeeze.
hope this helps.
Jacob, I will give my reply in relation to your post after however if you would like to give me ranges for each villain in each spot and yourself I can show you how profitable this play is through a CREV model.
For this to work I will need the following:
CO open range, flat 3bet range, 4bet all in range.
BU flatting range to CO open, flat range when CO folds to 3bet, flat range when CO flats, 4bet range when CO folds, 4bet all in range when CO flats.
I know this is alot of ranges however if you are willing to give me the ranges for each above I will do the model/s for you. I am more than happy to do it as i think this is an interesting spot and I need more experience with CREV. Also, feel free to make any assumptions you desire such as villain never 4betting, BU never flatting etc..
I will reply in relation to your above post shortly.
OK, so i did the CRev model with the exact ranges you gave me Jacob and the results are below:
As you can see, using your assumptions this is a profitable play of approximately 221 chips, or .1.1 big blinds. However, i want to discuss your assumptions and the effect they have on the model/the EV of the play.
Assumptions
Cutoff has a wide opening range
You have given the cutoff of a range of ~35%. The closest i could get to this is 34.84% (AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o).
We do not have a good read on the cutoff and we can not definitively say that his range is going to be this wide. There are reshove stacks behind and if he has been watching the button he knows that the button has been playing alot of pots. This will tighten his range.
If we only change his opening range to 20% (AA-22,AKs-A7s,A5s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs,T9s,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo) and keeping all other assumptions constant the EV for our 3bet changes to -152 chips or -.75 big blinds.
Button has a flatting range of only medium-strength hands
You have given the button a flatting range of 13.12% (88-22,ATs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo). This does not include times that the button flats better hands such as AJs, TT, AQo. Given the button seems passive so far he can easily have some of these hands in his range hoping to induce 3bets or shoves from people behind (SB and BB). If we include the whole top of his range (AQo+, 99+, AJs+) at only 20% weighting it changes the EV of our 3bet to 151 chips, or .75 big blinds. This is with the assumption CO is opening 34.84% (wide).
After our 3bet the cutoff never flats
100% of the time the cutoff isnt going to go all in or fold. He is going to flat sometimes as the button has shown passivity and weaker villains will want to see a flop. He is getting odds of 3.61:1 which means he can flat a decent range and play postflop. When the cutoff flats it is most certain that the button will be flatting also.
After we 3bet and the cutoff folds BU never calls
I believe this is a really wrong assumption to make. Button so far has shown us that he is passive and if the Cutoff folds he has to call 499 into a pot of 1799, or odds of 3.6:1. He is going to call this alot as he is passive, is getting good odds and has position. This is where the postflop playability of T5o comes into play, which is obviously terrible.
If we change the assumptions that cutoff is opening 20% (AA-22,AKs-A7s,A5s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs,T9s,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo) and that button will be flatting his premiums with 20% weighting this becomes a really bad play that loses 193 chips or almost 1 big blind.
We can go in further depth with c-betting and what the cutoff, button or both will call/shove with but i believe this will make our play even worse.
Feel free to give your comments on any changes to assumptions you would like and i can post the results.
Also, CRev's default is to run these over 100,000 simulations. I ran these over 1million simulations as to make the model more accurate.
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