View Plans & Pricing

If you are signed in and are seeing this message, please be sure you have selected a user name in My Profile. The forum requires it.
A A A
Search

— Forum Scope —




— Match —





— Forum Options —





Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters

Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 (0 votes) 
sp_TopicIcon
14.5bb effective non-all in light 3bet ITT
jacobsharktank
Florida
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 547
Member Since:
December 24, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
1
December 22, 2014 - 9:21 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

What is up TPE nation? Are you ready to study!

 

This is from last night's $20+2 turbo 4k guarantee turbo deep stack on bovada. We had 176 people for $128 in overlay, making it ~ $22.70 for only $22.

5k starting stacks, 100/200 blinds just went up, antes introduced next level at lvl 8 I think.

folds to cutoff running 13/0 over 17 hands with 2873, raises to 400

button running 29/11 over 17 hands with 4750 calls.

small blind folds.

hero in bb running 23/23 over 17 hands with 6059 raises to 1099 with T5o

thoughts?

folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
Members
Forum Posts: 1133
Member Since:
September 14, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
2
December 22, 2014 - 9:07 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

If u have a read that the intitial raiser has a r/f range at around 15bb then yeah you could 3bet/f here but given that you dont have those reads i just think that v will be4-bet jamming a ton here given the effecitve stacks , he will be getting good odds to 4-bet gii with a wider range.

so i just think this is a fold pre IMO.

hawkeyeK9
Guest
Guests
3
December 22, 2014 - 10:14 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Jacob, I say this as a constructive feedback comment but this seems really bad. You truly don't have any significant reads with those stats. Generally speaking, people on Bovada call super light. So you are 3betting oop with a hand that does not play well at all. A majority of time you are getting called here, then you would have to hope for a good board to potentially double barrel or triple for a significant portion of your stack or all of it. These are not the spots you wanna take in a turbo bud.

Kalculater
Nose Bleed Member
Members
Forum Posts: 428
Member Since:
January 28, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
4
December 22, 2014 - 11:12 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

I think this is bad. As hawkeye mentions these stats are not a particularly good read as it is a small sample and his stats are not even loose here. Even so, given he has not raised preflop but has played some hands (not being sure if he has limped or has called a raise due to his VPIP) he is probably weighted to having a stronger hand here even from late position. The flatter also complicates things as people will get very stubborn in these spots.

As for our hand, T5o plays terribly postflop for those times that the cutoff, button or both call our 3bet.

Myself, I am shoving my whole range here as there is too much in the pot already giving villains fabulous odds to call with medium PPs, broadways etc.

jacobsharktank
Florida
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 547
Member Since:
December 24, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
5
December 23, 2014 - 12:52 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Seems the consensus is this is bad lol. Well, I suppose I should lay out my reasons for taking this spot in this manner to be critiqued now that we've talked it out a bit.

If you see, it's the 14.5bb stack in the cut off's very first opportunity to raise when folded to and he's chosen to minraise. Our button is loose, but hasn't been crazy, in our two orbits. It being the cut offs first opportunity, I think his range can be a few things-

 

Here's 32.43% (22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o)
Here's 25.55% (55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o)
Here's 20% ( 66+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo)
Here's 13.88% (77+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo)

Button flatting, combined with how he's played thus far, tells me he's almost certainly capped, removing AQ+, JJ+. I think button is flatting most of the time here with a wide speculative range because he's the button. 

I'm risking 899 to win 1999, (I raise 899 to 1099, and the total pot is 1999), needing a success rate of 45% or a combined fold of 55% to net profit without cards. Right off the bat I want to point out that if cut off goes with a range as wide as (55+, AT+, KJ+; 11.76%), I need 27% equity against that. If he shoves, the pot is 4572 and it costs me 1774, meaning I need 27.95% equity to break even. 

 

Okay back to the cut off. If his range is 32.43% and he goes with the 11.76% I outlined, he's folding ~64% of the time. If he shoves tighter (22+, AJ+; 9.5%), he's folding ~71% of the time.

If his range is 25.55%, he's folding ~54% of the time or ~63% of the time.

If his range is 20% he's folding ~41% of the time or ~52.5% of the time.

If his range is 13.88%, he's probably getting it in nearly always or folding around 20-25% of the time. Things are looking pretty slim and this would be incredibly dependent on him being a villain who has a wide steal range from the cut off (something I don't think is that difficult to give to an unknown player off this stack size at 100/200)

 

Button, while getting a price of 2.85 to 1, I think is just going to be out of line here too often and will fold. If he calls, the pot's 2698 and he should know he'll face a bet fairly often when he himself will only have a stack of 3651 behind. IF he calls, he's playing fit or fold and my cbet itself will almost always be profitable outright because he'll miss too often. If button folds 100%, my problem rests solely on cut off's range. If button folds 100%, a cut off who opens first in for 30% is folding too much, a difference as high as 5%. If button calls, I cbet 100% for 1/2 and he folds 2/3 (he misses), meaning the cbet is null. If called on cbet, I give up (he also shoves over cbet the 1/3 he hits Im guessing, these would be the same thing as I give up if called). I cbet 1/3 and he continues 1/3 of the time getting 4-1 and nets me a profit just by folding too much there. 

 

I want it understood I know my hand has no post flop playability. However, in this spot, I am completing a large % of the time because it is a low variance spot where I only need to realize 15.38% equity to break even. Because this hand has no playability to complete, despite good odds, I think I need (or want to find, rather) a 3bet/fold range if I think they will fold too often. This will allow me to also 3bet say like half AK and half QQ+ and shoving or 3betting bigger with a different range. Or, if I just go postflop for a low variance pot with a huge range, I can choose to 3b/fold trash like this and monsters, and only have this sizing. I understand it would be nicer if I had a hand like 89s, but that hand also plays well for a flat in that spot. If I 3b a hand like A2o, I have to call the cut off shove when he goes with it. If I 3b 89s, I really have to call. I'd much rather 3b/fold if he's folding too much.

 

And lastly, I think a villain raising at his first opportunity in the cut off for a minraise with 14.5bb on bovada is less likely to include 77-AA/AJ+ as most of these guys just shove strong hands at these sizes. That would make his opening range more combos of hands that fold to a 3b. He didnt type a number in, he just clicked raise when it folded to him. That's very easy to do. 

 

All of this said, I wanted to hold off on posting those points until we got comments coming. I quickly checked before 3b to see what price I'd get if I was shoved on, and then had a rough idea where my equity stands against pairs+bigger aces and what not, knowing it cuts pretty close. I noticed the cut off's stats. I noticed the button. I know people are cally overall, but look at what we have. The cut off can't call. The button can call, but his stack is heavily leveraged. I'm tired so I hope this doesn't come off rambly or defensive of bad play or results-oriented thinking. I love the idea of discussing things forward. Let's get the critique going.

jacobsharktank
Florida
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 547
Member Since:
December 24, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
6
December 23, 2014 - 12:57 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

hawkeyeK9 said:

 A majority of time you are getting called here, then you would have to hope for a good board to potentially double barrel or triple for a significant portion of your stack or all of it.

 

Note that because of stack sizes, I only make a flop bet against the button. This severely limits his ability to realize his equity against trash, as he will not defend enough. He's folding when he misses. I either risk 899 to win 1999 or something like 899+920 to win ~3818.

folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
Members
Forum Posts: 1133
Member Since:
September 14, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
7
December 23, 2014 - 1:26 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

You seem like you know your stuff , which is really good.

 

I must say though , the caculations u gave regarding 27.95% equity to break even is incorrect lol.

 

when CO shoves you'll be getting 2.5 to 1 , which mean's your going to need 28.6% equity to break even and against that range you gave above , (55+, AT+, KJ+; 11.76%), you've got 27.01% equity.

 

I think the best thing to do is construct a 3-bet/f , 3bet/c and a 3-bet shove range.

 

i'm not saying 3-bet/f is terrible at these stacksizes , it can be very profitable to do so , but your hand does take a part into it as well , there's a lot of varliables involved I.E opponents tendencies , stacks, postions , dynamics ect. 

 

for instance with this hand T5o in this spot , i'd rather just 3-bet shove , if you really think your opponent is r/f way to often  espically, then again at these effective stacks they may get a good price on the call , were as if we were lets say 21bb effective you would have more FE when you squeeze.

 

hope this helps.

Kalculater
Nose Bleed Member
Members
Forum Posts: 428
Member Since:
January 28, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
8
December 23, 2014 - 1:37 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

Jacob, I will give my reply in relation to your post after however if you would like to give me ranges for each villain in each spot and yourself I can show you how profitable this play is through a CREV model.

For this to work I will need the following:

CO open range, flat 3bet range, 4bet all in range.

BU flatting range to CO open, flat range when CO folds to 3bet, flat range when CO flats, 4bet range when CO folds, 4bet all in range when CO flats.

I know this is alot of ranges however if you are willing to give me the ranges for each above I will do the model/s for you. I am more than happy to do it as i think this is an interesting spot and I need more experience with CREV. Also, feel free to make any assumptions you desire such as villain never 4betting, BU never flatting etc..

I will reply in relation to your above post shortly.

jacobsharktank
Florida
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 547
Member Since:
December 24, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
9
December 23, 2014 - 2:03 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

regarding the 27.95, I’m confused how you mean I’m wrong lol. If the pot is 4575 and we’re facing 1774. Were getting 2.577 to 1, needing 27.96% to break even with 4 sig figs.You just rounded to 2.5 instead.

I appreciate it! I have no experience with crev, and really want to see what you can do with it.

Since I want to think about this spot in a manner where it’s the minimum for it to be profitable, let’s give cut off an opening range of
35%, a continuing range of 22-AA AT-AK KQ (158/1326 or 11.92%) and I honestly don’t think he’s ever calling, so all continuing is shoving. That’ll be my assumption. Also, because it’s really close and I’d fall to 16.5bb if I lose when the cutoff shoves, Id fold. Id want like 3% I think (random number i’m grabbing) to take that.

I also don’t think button is calling because of his stack and the pot size. Let’s give him a range of A2s-ATs, 78s-89s-9Ts-TJs-JQs, QJo, KQo, KJo, K9s, KTs, KJs, KQs 22-88, ATo, AJo. I’m tired but what’s that? (just checked 180/1326 or 13.57%) Now facing a 3b, idunno folding all but AJo/ATs/KQ/88? that’s 38/180 or 21% so calling 21% i guess? then that’s folding when it misses. 88 folds most flops id think (can you check flopzilla to see how often that is below top pair?), High cards aren’t calling a flop cbet when they miss, so I still feel a cbet at that stack size and pot size will be profitable all on its own as well, almost regardless what his range is postflop (because he won’t get to the flop with a strong tight range, he may get there with a weak tight range if he calls preflop far more often) I think this stack depth really drives it home.

jacobsharktank
Florida
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 547
Member Since:
December 24, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
10
December 23, 2014 - 2:04 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

okay I've been home for 3 hours and meant to go to bed so long ago. I'm really excited talking about hands tonight, but I really need to get to sleep. take care everyone

Kalculater
Nose Bleed Member
Members
Forum Posts: 428
Member Since:
January 28, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
11
December 23, 2014 - 10:27 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

OK, so i did the CRev model with the exact ranges you gave me Jacob and the results are below:

http://c714091.r91.cf2.rackcdn.com/c4ad518fcc06439cf6d8011da65a6fcbffb3b1f040.pngImage Enlarger
As you can see, using your assumptions this is a profitable play of approximately 221 chips, or .1.1 big blinds. However, i want to discuss your assumptions and the effect they have on the model/the EV of the play.

Assumptions

Cutoff has a wide opening range
You have given the cutoff of a range of ~35%. The closest i could get to this is 34.84% (AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o).

We do not have a good read on the cutoff and we can not definitively say that his range is going to be this wide. There are reshove stacks behind and if he has been watching the button he knows that the button has been playing alot of pots. This will tighten his range.

If we only change his opening range to 20% (AA-22,AKs-A7s,A5s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs,T9s,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo) and keeping all other assumptions constant the EV for our 3bet changes to -152 chips or -.75 big blinds.

http://c714091.r91.cf2.rackcdn.com/c4ad518fcc5fcb1c2098264c5037fbd72140eb3302.pngImage Enlarger
Button has a flatting range of only medium-strength hands
You have given the button a flatting range of 13.12% (88-22,ATs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo). This does not include times that the button flats better hands such as AJs, TT, AQo. Given the button seems passive so far he can easily have some of these hands in his range hoping to induce 3bets or shoves from people behind (SB and BB). If we include the whole top of his range (AQo+, 99+, AJs+) at only 20% weighting it changes the EV of our 3bet to 151 chips, or .75 big blinds. This is with the assumption CO is opening 34.84% (wide).

http://c714091.r91.cf2.rackcdn.com/c4ad518fcca6e6d12df46647d03d88cb8cbf291276.pngImage Enlarger
After our 3bet the cutoff never flats
100% of the time the cutoff isnt going to go all in or fold. He is going to flat sometimes as the button has shown passivity and weaker villains will want to see a flop. He is getting odds of 3.61:1 which means he can flat a decent range and play postflop. When the cutoff flats it is most certain that the button will be flatting also.

After we 3bet and the cutoff folds BU never calls
I believe this is a really wrong assumption to make. Button so far has shown us that he is passive and if the Cutoff folds he has to call 499 into a pot of 1799, or odds of 3.6:1. He is going to call this alot as he is passive, is getting good odds and has position. This is where the postflop playability of T5o comes into play, which is obviously terrible.

If we change the assumptions that cutoff is opening 20% (AA-22,AKs-A7s,A5s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs,T9s,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo) and that button will be flatting his premiums with 20% weighting this becomes a really bad play that loses 193 chips or almost 1 big blind.

http://c714091.r91.cf2.rackcdn.com/c4ad518fccff4e1404f58cfa12b8c9fd3f112bf7cd.pngImage Enlarger
We can go in further depth with c-betting and what the cutoff, button or both will call/shove with but i believe this will make our play even worse.

Feel free to give your comments on any changes to assumptions you would like and i can post the results.

Also, CRev's default is to run these over 100,000 simulations. I ran these over 1million simulations as to make the model more accurate.

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
35 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)

Top Posters:

bennymacca: 2616

Foucault: 2067

folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133

praetor: 1033

theginger45: 924

P-aire 146: 832

Turbulence: 768

The Riceman: 731

duggs: 591

florianm1: 588

Newest Members:

Tillery999

sdmathis89

ne0x00

adrianvaida2525

Anteeater

Laggro

Forum Stats:

Groups: 4

Forums: 24

Topics: 12705

Posts: 75003

 

Member Stats:

Guest Posters: 1063

Members: 12008

Moderators: 2

Admins: 5

Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos

Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1