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January 16, 2014
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[First strat post]
Playing $150 buy-in ($1M Guarantee) day 1a at LAPC.
~80 players left.
Blinds are 1.5/3K, 500 ante. 9 handed. Hero has ~40K chips. Early in level (30 min. levels)
UTG folds, UTG+1 makes 6,500 (based on comments and OH conversation with his friend, not a usual tournament player) has raise/folded several times, but has mostly been involved in hands where either he shoved or called shoves. From what I remember he had ~70-80K in chips.
Folds around to Hero who has AJs in UTG+4. Hero shoves.
In retrospect, I think flat may have made more sense here given proximity to bubble, but not sure. Suggestions for analysis would be appreciated.
August 21, 2012
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Flatting is bad. We are not deep enough to play post flop. When we are deeper we can use our position effectively, this short we really can’t and often are playing fit or fold which is bad.
I don’t mind the shove if he has raise/folded a few times. We have a good stack to do so. I’m a little confused by the second statement you make about villain being involved in hands where he calls shoves? Is he folding more or calling shoves more?
I’m taking into consideration our image here as well. I also want to know more about the stacks behind us left to act. Thats comes into my decision making. 13 big blinds is a lot more live than online. I find myself being able to work a smaller stack effectively live with alot more effectvieness.
That all said, if he’s raise and folded to reshoves this is a fine spot to reship. We stand to gain alot of chips.
January 15, 2014
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I agree with Chuck Blaze. Flatting is not good here. I like the shove
January 16, 2014
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Blaze,
Thanks for input. given your response above, do you think passing and waiting for a better spot is a better option than shoving?
Re: villain calling shoves, I’d say he was about 50/50 folding/calling shoves. He was fairly tight, didn’t see him really get out of line at any point, other than flatting a couple min-raises from the bb with what I assumed were questionable holdings [only saw one, J8o, when J flopped; the other one or two he folded]. when he called a shove, he called with good holdings.
My image had to be tight aggressive. Had shoved a few times pre- and posflop. I think only one that villain had seen called was AKs. Wasn’t playing many pots, but was hammering at those I did.
Stacks behind me all had me covered other than 1, I think. a few had me at least doubled up.
Other than the merits of the play relative to stack sizes, my concern is how the bubble-proximity should have affected my play, if at all.
August 21, 2012
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Blaze,
Thanks for input. given your response above, do you think passing and waiting for a better spot is a better option than shoving?
Other than the merits of the play relative to stack sizes, my concern is how the bubble-proximity should have affected my play, if at all.
I think there are times it can be better to pass with a hand like AJ. I’m not sure villain is going to call us with much worse A10, A9. I’m taking into account what types of hands I’ve seen this player call with to help me make a decision. I’m also trying to figure out exactly how I’m going to be getting chips if I’m passing up of this spot and my overall edge going forward. If there is someone to my left I can abuse and shove on all day it might make me lean towards folding. He’s called with AK so I think it can be safe to say that he should call with a range of A10s+, AJo+, 77+, KQs +. We probably have ~40% equity when called.
That range above isn’t exact at all. I’ve seen players fold AQ, AK in these spots not wanting to take flips. They might fold 1010 here and I don’t think we can assume this players is competent with his push fold game and calling a proper range. So I like to balance all this into my decision.
As far as the bubble, it should be taken into consideration. Sometimes in smaller live MTTs I play with less runners it can make sense to make a tight fold near the bubble knowing if I get in the money and in continued bubble play, I have a huge edge and I can also generally assume in that the average stack is really small and I have tons of fold equity with my 10-13bb stack. This is a huge tournament with multiple days. Stacks are much deeper and our goal should be making a run at the final table, Top 3, and ultimately to win. We are in danger with the deeper stacks of not having fold equity very soon.
Taking all that into account, shoving I think is the best play here. I’m fine with risking my tournament life to pick up the chips. It puts us in a better position overall to make a run and win the tournament.
Either way, whether you decide to shove or fold here the most important thing to concern ourselves with is being able to take into account a variety of factors to make an informed decision.
TPE Pro
TPE Management
July 20, 2010
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not a very fun spot tbh, i think when im in spots like this is when i revert to my training and coaching and the philosophy that scared money don’t make money so i rip it in and hope for the best. Remember that players calling ranges tend to be tighter in live play and 35 to the $ is a long way away and that you are there to top 3 and that folding here wont get you there.
January 16, 2014
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Thanks for the responses all. Much appreciated.
December 7, 2012
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Just wanted to give Blaze some props for a good analysis. I’m ripping it here, it’s close but with the bubble comes a little extra fold equity as mentioned so that tips the scales just enough..
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