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13.2$+R on 888 thursday challege KQs 14 BB UTG+1, my head is breaking
AndreiDRC
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October 4, 2013 - 6:52 am
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Hi. I played last night on the 13,2$ Rebuy on 888poker and met this situation. It was still the rebuy period. 

It might not seem so complicated, but the question I ask is very fundamental. Shove, fold, or minraise? If minraise , how do I react to 3bet shoves?

The problem is that today I tried to calculate my shove EV, and it just doesn't works. I don't know the correct method. I figured that if I shove, the table's FE is about 66% to win a pot of 600. In 18% of cases when I get called, my equity is about 26% and in 15% it's a flip. mabye under 1% there are two monsters after me and i have very low equity(10% to win a 10K pot).

I would apreciate if a mather guy than me can tell me how to calculate if the shove is profitable or not.

 

***** Cassava Hand History for Game 513904210 *****
$125/$250 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 03 10 2013 23:46:08
Tournament #51146550 $12 + $1.20 - Table #50 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Barleanu (UTG+1) ( $3,433 ) (HERO)
Seat 2: TTittes ( $9,639 )
Seat 3: Kaloryfer147 ( $5,365 )
Seat 4: howmad1_10 ( $9,842 )
Seat 5: DesMania ( $6,109 )
Seat 6: yesmeagain ( $2,985 )
Seat 7: PrincessMila ( $8,131 )
Seat 9: irvingc ( $2,343 )
Seat 10: mucker_maker ( $16,236 )

PrincessMila posts small blind [$125]
irvingc posts big blind [$250]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Barleanu [ Kc, Qc ]
mucker_maker folds

After about one and a half hour of analising this hand, I think that limping pre was the best solution, even if I almost never do that.
I always minraise open pre if blinds are >50. I really need some oppinions.
 
Thank's a lot and good luck!
NoirDesir87
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October 4, 2013 - 7:21 am
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In the rebuy period just shove imo. You can minraise/call if you want to induce some light shoves but with KQ you don't really want to induce a shove of 44 or A3 so just shove imo

AndreiDRC
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October 4, 2013 - 7:29 am
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I know that shoving can't be a very bad move , because if it's -EV, it's not very -EV, but my question is which would be the perfect one. That's why I need a more mathematical approach.

NoirDesir87
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October 4, 2013 - 7:45 am
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I think shoving > folding > minraising > limping.

 

EDIT: I'm not really a math guy so I let this to approach for someone else. I just know shoving is EV+ here, minraise/folding is probably EV-, minraise/calling is'nt great (as  I said you don't really want to induce w/ KQ) and I don't see any merit in lilmping. Fold is EV0

Melanocetidae
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October 4, 2013 - 9:40 am
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CCuster 911
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October 4, 2013 - 5:07 pm
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Hey let me see if I can help you understand the general math(it can get more complicated, a resource like Melanocetidae posted is good for more exact, but Ill wlak you through a general process).

 

First you want to calculate each persons range(in %).  There are 7 people left to act, just glancing and assuming lets do something like this:

 

*Note I dont have a working laptop actually in my campuses library right now so no stove, Im going to speak in %'s, not knowing exaclty waht they equate too but shouldnt really matter.

 

MP1: 7%

MP2: 7%

HJ: 8%

CO: 8%

BTN: 9%

SB: 11%

BB: 13%

 

Lets just assume you think these are their ranges.  In order to make a rough estimate in the value you first want to calcualte the average calling range: (7+7+8+8+9+11+13)/7 = 9% (Which i semi planned to happen)

 

So now lets see how often we get called.  This is actually a little complicated, so lets start with the reverse, in how often we get folds.  The average person is folding 91% of the time(calling 9%).  So they all fold .91*.91*.91…… 7 times or .91^7 which is 51.7%(we will call it 52%).  So we get folds 52% of the time, and we take down about 2.5BBs(I am assuming there are antes).  So our expectation is +1.3BB(.52*2.5).

 

Just at a cursory glance you can see its almsot 50/50 in terms of folding and getting called.  Meaning if we wxpect to lose more than 1.3BB when called we are losing money.  

 

Since I dont have stove I will have to solve this semi differntly.  First I will calculate the pot when called(by one person, to factor in the odds of getting called in more than 1 spot is trickier).  

 

Note that two people have less stakcs then us, to adjust for this(alhough not entirely correct but accurate enough for us), I will assume the amount we lose is slightly elss then our stack, and the amount we win is slightly less than our stack, in this case Ill take away half a BB form each or 1 BB total, so instead of 14 BBs each side, ill treat it as 13.5BBs each side).

 

The pot is going to be 13.5+13.5+2.5(blinds) = 29.5  We dont want to lose more than 1.3 so we need to get back at least 12.2, but remember I skipped out the odds of getting called by more than 1 person earlier, so we should semi account for that now(again this isnt perfect but fine for generalized), so I will say we want back at least 12.8(so we dont want to lose more than .7).  So we need 12.8/29.5 = 43.4%.

 

Using pro poker tools, we have 41.01% agasint this range( so marginally -EV).

 

However my assumptions are just that, my assumptions, I just wanted to walk you through the math of shoving.

 

Hope this helps, let me know if you need more clarification. 

For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion

AndreiDRC
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October 6, 2013 - 1:58 am
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Thank's for this golden info. It really helped me. My brain healed itself :D. Good luck!

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