August 16, 2013
Hi. I played last night on the 13,2$ Rebuy on 888poker and met this situation. It was still the rebuy period.
It might not seem so complicated, but the question I ask is very fundamental. Shove, fold, or minraise? If minraise , how do I react to 3bet shoves?
The problem is that today I tried to calculate my shove EV, and it just doesn't works. I don't know the correct method. I figured that if I shove, the table's FE is about 66% to win a pot of 600. In 18% of cases when I get called, my equity is about 26% and in 15% it's a flip. mabye under 1% there are two monsters after me and i have very low equity(10% to win a 10K pot).
I would apreciate if a mather guy than me can tell me how to calculate if the shove is profitable or not.
***** Cassava Hand History for Game 513904210 ***** $125/$250 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 03 10 2013 23:46:08 Tournament #51146550 $12 + $1.20 - Table #50 (Real Money) Seat 6 is the button Total number of players : 9 Seat 1: Barleanu (UTG+1) ( $3,433 ) (HERO) Seat 2: TTittes ( $9,639 ) Seat 3: Kaloryfer147 ( $5,365 ) Seat 4: howmad1_10 ( $9,842 ) Seat 5: DesMania ( $6,109 ) Seat 6: yesmeagain ( $2,985 ) Seat 7: PrincessMila ( $8,131 ) Seat 9: irvingc ( $2,343 ) Seat 10: mucker_maker ( $16,236 ) PrincessMila posts small blind [$125] irvingc posts big blind [$250] ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Barleanu [ Kc, Qc ] mucker_maker folds
After about one and a half hour of analising this hand, I think that limping pre was the best solution, even if I almost never do that.
I always minraise open pre if blinds are >50. I really need some oppinions.
Thank's a lot and good luck!
August 31, 2013
I think shoving > folding > minraising > limping.
EDIT: I'm not really a math guy so I let this to approach for someone else. I just know shoving is EV+ here, minraise/folding is probably EV-, minraise/calling is'nt great (as I said you don't really want to induce w/ KQ) and I don't see any merit in lilmping. Fold is EV0
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
Hey let me see if I can help you understand the general math(it can get more complicated, a resource like Melanocetidae posted is good for more exact, but Ill wlak you through a general process).
First you want to calculate each persons range(in %). There are 7 people left to act, just glancing and assuming lets do something like this:
*Note I dont have a working laptop actually in my campuses library right now so no stove, Im going to speak in %'s, not knowing exaclty waht they equate too but shouldnt really matter.
MP1: 7%
MP2: 7%
HJ: 8%
CO: 8%
BTN: 9%
SB: 11%
BB: 13%
Lets just assume you think these are their ranges. In order to make a rough estimate in the value you first want to calcualte the average calling range: (7+7+8+8+9+11+13)/7 = 9% (Which i semi planned to happen)
So now lets see how often we get called. This is actually a little complicated, so lets start with the reverse, in how often we get folds. The average person is folding 91% of the time(calling 9%). So they all fold .91*.91*.91…… 7 times or .91^7 which is 51.7%(we will call it 52%). So we get folds 52% of the time, and we take down about 2.5BBs(I am assuming there are antes). So our expectation is +1.3BB(.52*2.5).
Just at a cursory glance you can see its almsot 50/50 in terms of folding and getting called. Meaning if we wxpect to lose more than 1.3BB when called we are losing money.
Since I dont have stove I will have to solve this semi differntly. First I will calculate the pot when called(by one person, to factor in the odds of getting called in more than 1 spot is trickier).
Note that two people have less stakcs then us, to adjust for this(alhough not entirely correct but accurate enough for us), I will assume the amount we lose is slightly elss then our stack, and the amount we win is slightly less than our stack, in this case Ill take away half a BB form each or 1 BB total, so instead of 14 BBs each side, ill treat it as 13.5BBs each side).
The pot is going to be 13.5+13.5+2.5(blinds) = 29.5 We dont want to lose more than 1.3 so we need to get back at least 12.2, but remember I skipped out the odds of getting called by more than 1 person earlier, so we should semi account for that now(again this isnt perfect but fine for generalized), so I will say we want back at least 12.8(so we dont want to lose more than .7). So we need 12.8/29.5 = 43.4%.
Using pro poker tools, we have 41.01% agasint this range( so marginally -EV).
However my assumptions are just that, my assumptions, I just wanted to walk you through the math of shoving.
Hope this helps, let me know if you need more clarification.
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