If we flat the raise on the flop we will have t16800 of the t30083 we started with in the pot, essentially commiting us. This is a jam or fold spot.

On this flop we have 75% equity vs his pfr range (11%)…I’m getting it in here.

In game I would check his stats for flatting a 3bet oop pre which would help define his range, but with only 11 hands on him it’s likely zero. 

We may run into the top of his range here but flush draws are also part of it and could be played this way by the villian.

someone who 3x's pre with these stack sizes does not ever min raise a flush draw, this is JJ/AK 100% of the time. i really think as played this is a fold, but i think we should flat pre since his 4bet range will crush us, and he may fold weaker Aces like A10s AJ AQ that he opens, or he flats us and we only get value post on Axx boards,

i like flatting pre here in this spot.

against a loose passive player his range is to strong to 3bet/get in almost 40BB.

flatting lets his whole range in and you are playing a very disguised hand and can get lots of value if hit top pair.

if you 3bet i def 3bet bigger OOP to 2.7-3.2x his raise.

flop play:

after you bet and and SPR of about 1 the only question is wheter to fold or jam

i think he is getting it in here if we jam with 44,JJ,AK,AcQc,AcJc,AcTc(if he raises that pre) and against that range we need 38% to break even(cEV) and we only have 31% equity vs the above range. taking Bubble factor into account we need even more equity prob closer to 40% to make a +$EV play here

so i am in the bet/fold camp against this opponent.  

there is another point i would like to discuss about sizing:

if you make it pre so small you should also make it on the flop smaller. especially if you believe villain is on a draw

on the flop the pot is 11200 so if we bet about 3900 our opponent gets about 3.9:1 on a call. if he plays his draws passively he is still making a -EV play as he needs 4.2:1 to make a break even call. So if we bet and our opponent calls there is 19000 in the pot and we have 21k behind to either jam the turn or c/f if clubs hits and we believe our opponent has that.

even more important if our opponent is passive and only comes over the top of our bet with 2pair and sets we can fold and save almost 2BB

cheers

P.S.: no guarantee that all the numbers are right

theginger45 said:

3bet a little bigger pre, around 6700 or so. We're getting flatted nearly 100% of the time with this sizing vs a passive villain and we don't want that OOP.

 

That said, passive villain is rarely pure bluffing flop but his value and semibluff ranges are wide enough to make this a standard 3b shove on the flop imo. I hatehatehate flatting pre OOP and I think folding flop is really nitty. Considering villain is almost never folding to our 3bet we really can't just give him credit for better than TPTK on flop.

A passive villain by definition has a wider calling range and a narrower raising/betting range by definition. what hands in his value range to we beat on flop given his preflop sizing and flop sizing?