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$1,100 Twin Cities Poker Open Line Check
JLUDEOBV
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August 27, 2012 - 2:14 pm
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Me: 30k

Villain: 30k

Blinds: 300-600 50

Villain is new to the table but I have a pretty strong read on him as he seems ABC and I can't imagine him getting out of line and making some crazy bluff. 

I'm MP with AJo and open to 1200. Villain flats from cutoff and BB calls as well. Flop comes 1099 rainbow. BB checks, I bet 1500, cutoff calls, BB folds. When villain flats I can't imagine him floating me here with air. He could certainly have 10's in his range like A10-J10. Possibly 109 or 98 but I don't see many 9x in his range and of course 1010 and 99 are possible. He could also have drawing hands like QJ, KJ, KQ, or 78. So when the turn is a J whats our best line here given the assigned range? If we bet and get raised we certainly have to fold as I think we are always crushed so is check/call the best line or are we missing value too much by checking this turn?

duggs
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August 27, 2012 - 11:21 pm
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very interesting hand. below is all based on your ABC read.

 

given your range assigned we only really beat QJ A10 and KJ and K10 Q10, and even then they are all combo draws, whilst we lose to A9s J9s 98 99 1010 109 9J KQ J10 87s. combination wise we beat 8+9+8+12+12=49 and combos that beat us are 2+2+1+3+6+4+16+6+4=44. although if you think he is flatting A9o and 87o this becomes much more difficult to bet profitably.

another factor to consider is are we getting value from many rivers,

 

assuming we barrel turn i dont think we get called by the range we beat on K, A Q 10 8 rivers, where all/most hands that beat us will call a 3rd barrel. also if we check river everything we beat checks back. So we could double barrel and c/f A K Q 10 8 rivers.

and triple barrel J/9 rivers for value obv.

if the board comes 7-2 i think JK A10 JQ all call but Q10 K10 all fold. so we now get called by 24 less combos. (although they may call a small blocker bet, unsure) 

(given opponents range it is more likely than usual that river will bet 7-2 given discounting but im not sure how to do that)

where as if we check/call turn alot of what we beat checks back and im unsure if combos like QJ JK K10 and Q10 will bet turn if we check, if they dont then c/f turn and b/f on 7-2, A rivers and b/c on J rivers is good. since now K10 and Q10 will probably call(at least more often,)

 

also given villain is ABC i dont expect them to raise almost any hand on this turn given our percieved range. (it doesnt make sense for him to raise sets and 910 KQ imo) (87s may raise but its only 4 combos)

 

(you didnt state suits but im assuming J on turn completed the rainbow?) (does our A match the suit of either of the 9x on flop, iv assumed not)

 

so basically will villain bet K10 QJ JK and Q10 on turn if we check? if no then i like c/f turn and and b/f river on  9,A,J,7-2 for think value if villian checks behind and c/f river on Q K 10 8 rivers.

if villain will bet those hands then i prefer b/f turn and blocker b/f 7-2,A,J and c/f the rest (Q K 10 8). 

 

basically i think c/c turn is really tough since everything we lose to will bet turn but a ton of stuff we beat will sometimes check back, so i prefer to value b/f or c/f turn depending on what you think they do with the part of their range we beat.

 

so basically double barreling makes it harder to get value on the river, so we put in a smaller blocker bet that Q10 K10 may or may not call. also if he is going to check back JK QJ Q10 K10 c/f on turn becomes alot better since we can pretty much narrow his range to those hands and random slow plays when he checks back and go for value on river with a bigger sizing.

Turbulence
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August 28, 2012 - 7:06 am
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I also think you get flatted by all underpairs as well especially 66, 77, 88 as they a) have str8 blockers b) could improve to str8 draw or boat c) think they might have best hand and wanting to see turn before deciding what to do about it (or just dont have a scoobies what to do about it right now).

aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1

PocketFives Profile: .....urbulence/

duggs
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August 28, 2012 - 7:50 am
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highly doubt an ABC player floats underpairs

duggs
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August 28, 2012 - 9:12 am
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actually yea i think under pairs can float here, but they essentially will always fold to a turn or river barrel (unless they boat up so we cant really get value.)

hurricanejeff
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August 28, 2012 - 11:54 am
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I don't really think its floating for an underpair to call, a lot of times their small pairs are good on this board and they just have to hope for bricks on the turn.  When the turn is a low card they can bet it and get a ton of hands to fold that would call a flop raise.

JLUDEOBV
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August 28, 2012 - 6:34 pm
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So duggs you prefer check folding that turn?

FkCoolers
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August 28, 2012 - 7:16 pm
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Probably check/call 2 streets and base this on river card and river bet sizing. At the very least I am check/calling turn although that makes it pretty damn apparent we have a showdown value hand. Just not sure if he knows that, etc. etc.

duggs
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August 28, 2012 - 7:22 pm
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I kinda expect QJ KJ A10 K10 Q10 to pot control/draw for free. which makes me want to c/f since he is checking back the part of his range we beat and betting everything that crushes us. but if you think he is betting most of those combos/weaker hands on turn when checked to i prefer a b/f.

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