I would like some feedback on this hand that I played recently in the Great MN Freezeout $1,100 Event. Blinds 100/200 25. Stack sizes: Villian1=13k Villian2=15k Hero=17k. Villian1 who had been limping often and I had labeled as a donk limps UTG+1. It folds to me in the cutoff with KJdd and I make it 650 hoping to isolate the limper and take advantage of him in position. Villian2 in the SB who I knew was a good player (just won a tournament in the area for 65k and had other good results) asks how much the raise is and then calls. Villian1 calls as well. Flop comes J86hh. Check, check, I decide to c-bet 1025 into a pot of roughly 2,400. Villian2 check raises to 3k and Villian1 folds. I decide that I can never fold here because I feel like his calling range out of the SB is wide and folding would just be awful. I think the best line is to call and then re-evaulate on the turn. I decide to call. The turn is a 6c and Villian2 instantly goes all in for roughly 10k which is slightly over a pot sized bet. I immediately try to put him on a range of hands. Hands you can eliminate: QJo J10o J9o J8o J6 86 JJ 88 66 and more than likely QQ+. I feel he would've checked called Jx and if he flopped a set he wouldn't of played it that fast. Furthermore if he turned a full house I felt like he wouldn't of went all in. 6x is also a possibility but I feel like he is never check raising 6x in this spot on the flop. QQ is a possibility but very unlikely. I don't think he would've flatted KK and AA in this spot so his most likely holdings are AJ KJhh QJhh J10hh J9hh 109hh 97hh or 75hh. I knew this guy was capable of making a play but I was really uncertain where I was at. It is very unlikely that I am crushed in this spot. I feel like he definitely had a huge draw such as a straight flush draw or Jxhh. I tanked for 2 minutes and then folded because I still had 13k which was 65 bb's. Feedback on my thought process and play would be greatly appreciated. Thanks! -JLUDEOBV
played fine imo. i would imagine this is a good structured mtt so getting it in kinda thin this deep is meh although i wouldnt be mad at you for a hero call as his range is mostly draws, his fast action kinda leads me to believe so. but you cant discount the occassional KK/AA there.
I agree with your reasoning, which pretty much puts you ahead of him most of the time. In fact I think AJhh is the only hand in his likely range that you are now losing to. Having said that, it does depend on the player. His play on the flop could be a set if he was scared of flush draws, and he could then try to make it look weak by jamming the turn, but I think this is unlikely and big draw hands are fay more likely. Reasoned the way you have I think you could, and probably should, call. But given that it's early and you have a decent stack a fold is OK.
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