Figured it would be cool to get your guys thoughts on this hand. I have already looked it over a million times and talked to some sickos about it and know what I would do different. It is a really sick hand to look at and discuss as I have not had a hand like this in some time.
History: Villian is insane aggro brazilian supernova reg. 50 left in $11r 10 min levels $14k to first im sitting around 10th spot before this hand. Was only moved to table for about 10 hands and was not sure if I was supposed to 3bet ajs here to call 4bet jam or not vs him at this time. Previous history probably indicates so, but 10 min levels may change his play/tighten opening ranges. I could call squeezes from button or blind <20 bbs if OR fold to them.
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t6000/t12000 Blinds + t1200 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Salas42 (SB): BB = 19.4, t232328
Romzess II (BB): BB = 106.9, t1282909
dgouti (UTG): BB = 36.4, t436513
LiMa171 (UTG+1): BB = 45.1, t541588
grintoman (MP1): BB = 19.0, t227547
betodalu (MP2): BB = 33.6, t403112
Hero (CO): BB = 33.1, t397175
ibluffheaps (BTN): BB = 19.5, t234087
Pre Flop: (t27600) Hero is CO with J A
1 fold, LiMa171 raises to t25000, 2 folds, Hero calls t25000, 3 folds
Flop: (t77600) Q 9 8 (2 players)
LiMa171 checks, Hero bets t25000, LiMa171 raises to t62500, Hero raises to t100000, LiMa171 raises to t137500, Hero calls t37500
Turn: (t352600) 7 (2 players)
LiMa171 checks, Hero bets t63475, LiMa171 calls t63475
River: (t479550) 6 (2 players)
LiMa171 bets t170000, Hero ????
Trying to put the villian on a hand that would follow this line, but hard to do with these type of aggros.
Don't know about you, but I don't give these aggros credit for tightening up ever no matter what level or stacks they have. Not something they look at. (Might be wrong, but I never see them back down until they're busted) So I think I would 3 bet call this guy, and fold if other action behind occurs.
The only hand I can put him on that got there is Tx type of hand. KT AT or even QTs TT, which would be in an aggros EP opening range.
Your aggression slowed him down, but he aint ever gonna fold a draw especially QT. Can he really be bluffing on the river after the strength you've shown? Wow great bluff if it is, but if anyone can do it these type of bluffs, aggros can. The river is a great bluff card, but do these maniacs think on that level?
Hard for me to comment, I'm such a nit, would love to play a hand like yours this late in a tourney and with such aggresion. I'm jeolous. But if I did play a hand like this, hard to fold, only catching a bluff, leaving behind 12 BBs. Wow don't know. Sorry not much help. Suppose I would fold being such a nit.
Can't wait to see other comments and your conclusion.
mmn is ur turnbet in that hand the biggest problem!
if ur thinking about it realistically u would never play any strong made hand that way except jt and from my point of view and as i recall the reads i have on u from the tables i think i could exclude jt from ur range as u would not play jt the way u did on the flop…
the problem therefore is u would shove any qj tt 76 etc hands that have showdown value already and have backdoor equity on that turn directly!
u cannot call the river as the only hand u beat is kj.
my conclusion on the hand is misplay on the turn which either allowed him to get there with a weird t and therefore fold on the river!
what is ur thoughts on the turn bet?
July 3, 2010
Can't imagine this is ever a good thing to try 10 hands into a new table vs. a supernova in an 11r.
It's not like the 11r is a tough field. Why not avoid a spot like this and abuse the fish?
You're basically only representing JT and he's not going anywhere on the turn unless we shove so I don't get why we're using this sizing and betting. The problem is he can be turning hands that beat us into bluffs like A9s and stuff. Even a lot of his could have gotten there on this runout.
October 6, 2010
sick sick hand.
would have been such a soul crushing call for villian if you made it and were right
Danny , great post….I guess my only question would be if you thought you were good to 3 bet the flop , why just call the 4 bet especially if you were going to lead a dry turn for 63 k…….if I thought that I was good I would have shoved the flop after his 4 bet and especially if my plan was to invest 100k more on the call and lead on the turn …. I may be a donk but I think that I would have jammed the 4 bet down his throat and hope that my initial read was correct…..if not I have at least a few outs to save my ass…..also it is a lot easier to give an opinion when it is not your 14k on the line..hahahaha …thanks for the hand
I'm not a massive fan of 3bet calling pre as it seems high variance, especially in a $10R where I would expect to have a decent edge. So I like the flat, with the intention of calling a squeeze if the IR folds. Given that this guy is super agg, I would expect him to cbet all his overpairs and anything he hit the board with, even hands that nailed it like sets or the straight because you say you have history and he will play on his image. A check raise from him looks like a steal and so I like your 3bet. There aren't many big draw hands in his range now as I expect him to cbet with QT, QJ, and even if he did check/raise these I don't expect him to then 4bet them. Also his 4bet sizing looks really suspect to me and so from the comfort of my couch I think this is a great spot to 5bet jam.
The alternative route would be to avoid this levelling war, check behind flop and evaluate turn.
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