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$11 limp/shove line vs regs with a dead big blind.
jacobsharktank
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July 10, 2015 - 12:54 pm
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I did some work in icm and see lots of potential for profit here without even seeing a flop. People I respect greatly do things like this from time to time, and I want to know if this is a decent spot for it. 2+2 first response was “uh no this is bad” which only drives me to immediately want to prove it either way (for better or worse) because I think if a 2+2 reg thinks it's bad, it means he probably thinks my range is always gonna be strong here and he'll either let me see the flop for the limp and steal it post flop for an insanely cheap bluff/payout ratio. so idk. if everyone says zig and my instinct said zag, before i just go zig i wanna make sure i understand it all. pretty sure a zag is cool though. just saying. given the situation.

 

$11 $500 gtd

tables actually pretty reg heavy I realize. 

stacks are
ep: 20bb
ep1: 25bb
mp: 60bb
hero: 39bb QsJc
btn reg: 25bb
sb reg: 26bb
bb reg sitting out: 44bb

I think in spots like this it may be best to work in some unorthodox things because if I raise a wide range here, I'm likely to be exploited heavily since the big blind is sitting out. It makes no sense to openly throw chips into a potentially heavy profit spot for the btn or sb. this is in the top like 40% of an opening range, so raise/folding it would hurt too much…or raising and cbet/folding..i think it's easy to punish me here when the bb is gone. now that i've hammered that in…

my plan is to limp/shove over a raise from either players, as I think they'll iso me (an unknown) with like 20% just expecting me to be a fish limp/fold or limp/call ck/fold ya know? 

hero limps 1bb, sb raises to 3bb, hero ?

does this sound like a good set of outside thinking or should i raise and play postflop or play tighter here? this situation isn't very common, but it happened. i'm 1 tabling and looked up the two villains as i was waiting for action to fold to me because i thought right away this would be a spot worth examining.  

tazzjazz
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July 10, 2015 - 1:43 pm
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i like limping here and shoving isnt terrible but in position i think i would just flat or possibly click it back with a small 4 bet which looks stronger than a shove and is easy to get away from a villain 5 bet shove if you make it a min raise

jacobsharktank
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July 10, 2015 - 2:00 pm
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i'm going to be honest, you limp/ripping that one hand deep in the merge major is what was going through my mind as the table started folding to me. haha. you were a lot more deep stacked, and icm pressure was huge, so it's a very different spot, but it got me thinking about it. what do you think of limp/calling all the suited hands i would choose to limp? i don't know how i feel about clicking it, because in my mind i don't want to give them the ability to put the last bet in. that might not be an important thing to consider, i'm not sure, but if their range starts out pretty wide, i think i'm likely to get rebluffed since theyll have a value hand around 1/3 of the time. i don't want the villain to 3b/5b 22 i guess is what i'm saying. do you think i'm reading too much into that?

tazzjazz
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July 10, 2015 - 2:40 pm
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well, i'm guessing if i limp ripped with a lot of chips it was player/game flow based decision. can't remember. some villains might snap call your shove with 44 or A9 but just flat your reraise because they are worried about running into a big hand. bottom line: QJ is a good hand and you have fold equity so shove is profitable.

tazzjazz
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July 10, 2015 - 2:44 pm
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…but i always have the extra “friends with Barton” fear equity that you might not have in this spot

Cass
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July 10, 2015 - 3:33 pm
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I run ICM and with the calling range of V vs shove and hes range should by tight (JJ+, AQs+, AKo), so if u are planning to limp/shove to a raise QJo its not the best candidate to do this it would be better an Axs hand u block a lot of his range. If u want to limp light here I think u should defend to a raise by calling and clicking back also, like think about what tipe of hands are better to see a flop and what to click it back vs this V, or still shove? (then u have to balance them) But I think even if V deviates from GTO the A blocker it's important here. 

 

Edits: I earlier post some shove range but it was bad I was doing other things earlier and I forget to change the stack sizes 

michaeldi11on
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July 10, 2015 - 4:09 pm
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I don't understand why raising to fold to a 3bet or 4bet shove over a 3bet are not better options? If you get 3bet and they call your 4bet as wide as you think, then why not open fewer hands or just 4bet all in lighter for value and as a bluff with hands that do well vs a calling range?

Risking 25bb to win 5bb seems far too risky for me and QJo doesnt play great vs a calling range (29% v AQo, AJs, 99+).

You have no chance of winning without showdown pre if you limp which isn't great. Which is why people risk 2bb as it doesn't need to work that often to be +ev and puts more pressure on villains.

Also, from a balance perspective, you will surely want to raise first in with value hands and not just have a limp-shoving range? 

I respect the lateral, creative thinking but I think in this hand, with these stacks, it isn't great for the reasons above.

Douggyfr3sh
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July 10, 2015 - 4:25 pm
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Haven't read the other replies really but here is my 2 cents: 

 

In general I don't think limping QJ is terrible here, but to have the plan of limp/shoving I def prefer to know more about how our opponent's are playing.  Vs unknowns I would prefer to just raise/fold.  Yes, if you are opening a very wide range here it is pretty easy to be exploited and hard to defend that opening range- so I think the adjustment to make is to just not open quite as wide.  IMO if you're opening QJ here that doesn't necessarily mean youre opening way too wide for the spot, esp. if this is just near the bottom of your opening range.  

 

Having said this, I think limp/calling is also a pretty reasonable option whenever sb raises, since you will be in position with a hand that plays fairly well post vs. a confused villain (assuming a random villain is not going to have an easy time ranging your limp/call).  Furthermore the fact that BB is sitting out is reason enough on its own to induce sb to raise wider than normal here, so your range should be much stronger than villain's IMO.  In this exact spot I could even see limp/3bet/folding being a pretty reasonable option as the 3b looks super strong and I think it's hard from most opponents to rebluff pre, however I prefer limp/calling.  One final option that I don't think anyone has suggested yet is to just open shove, which I think gets a lot better if this is post ante. running a basic HRC sim shows that open shoving QJo here (assuming we are post ante) is +0.12bb EV, assuming BTN and SB get in GTO ranges.  If we adujst their ranges to be more reasonable get in ranges for real world, then our profit becomes +0.46.  This factors in the dead BB.

jacobsharktank
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July 17, 2015 - 10:50 pm
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Hey everyone, thanks for taking the time to think this one out and reply. In my mind, the fact that there’s a dead big blind tells the better players that some extra chips belong to them with respect to position and skill of the players in. So in theory, the players that act after a better player opens in late position have a easy to see opportunity to 3bet not all in very wide, with a lot of value and a lot of bluffs. This is because my perceived range in this spot is going to be like 50% I’d guess. In this spot, I do limp a more or less balanced range in order to allow me to play more hands. I think I’m convinced to limp/call whole range to put them in awkward spots with a low spr.

I wrote a range for what I believed the reg villains (they were like 20/20) I used that note to show that they will definitely be playing better than the average player in their respective spots. I did it in icmizer and wrote it by hand and equilab as well just to make sure I did it right. Limp/shoving QJo exactly with a raise/fold of like 70% (like raise 40%, call 12%) or something for the reg players, it profited more than 2bb I’m pretty sure. It’s been a while since I’ve run it, but it was profitable. I didn’t have villains raise/calling A9o, which lowers cEV by a bit because each Ax combo that raise/folds is significant. It’s actually why I don’t really like the idea of limp/shoving an Ace blocker. If I myself have A2o here, villain is less likely to have A6s or A8o, which I expect to be raised and then fold to a shove. At 25bb, we generally have a raise/4b jam range consisting of some manner of bluffs and value hands. I have a lot of raise/calls at this stack size because of how much direct odds we tend to get, which is more important at the lower sprs since reverse implied odds is lower, but I’m thinking that’s putting me in too many tough spots. But anyway, this stack size has room for 3b/folding and good regs definitely do it. I don’t like calling a 3bet with that hand because it’s harder to continue on the flop unsure of where I stand since Ace high will still cbet a lot of the time (but will fold on the turn or river). Hence, I’m convinced having a limp range/call range is going to be good. Like I don’t mind giving up having the ability to steal the pot preflop with just a raise because postflop we still have a decent spr if limp/calling and if it goes limp/ck I get to play deeper in position with a range advantage (because sb won’t fold 62o for instance) 100% of hands will be played from the sb player. I hope all that makes sense.

On a more fun note, I think posting this mayyyy have gotten me exploited (or I’m way dumber than I think). Last Sunday in the $22 25k, the sb was 3b way too much and taking every spot they could. I opened the btn with 89o and I think 40bb. SB 3bets, and I planned to tiny 4b line. I think a lot of people have a sizing tell in this spot with AA and I believed he would take it as that. It looks really nutted and I’m thinking this will always get a call and ck/fold. He called and flop is QTThh. I have a h. SPR was like 1.25:1 and I cbet not all in. I think I leveled myself on the cbet sizing instead of just ripping full range and I made it too easy to call the flop. I shoved a low turn for 3/4 pot and he snap called A7o. I binked river and felt like the biggest tool ever. I don’t think villain will ck/call my rip because ripping AA there would work fantastically (all pair call, KJ will call, there are fewer Tx hands, etc) so he’ll expect that and just fold. So anyway, felt like an idiot. I can’t wait til my computer is set up. I’m borrowing a laptop and I have a demo of HEM2 on here. No flopzilla 🙁 Grinding isn’t bad, but studying is harder. I’m going to get back to blogging again too.

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