I would bet small on the turn too.

As played I am not sure worst hands will call a reraise otr, maybe BB with T3, T4, T5, K3, K4, but that is not a huge part of BB´s range, and V might overplay and shove, the problem when V 3bets all in is that V will do that with sets, str8s and flushs. The bet is small, maybe BTN will call and you will win a nice pot. Just dont see much reason to reraise otr.

Not sure a check otf is good, since this is not a heads up pot, and we don´t have position.

As I said before, I don´t see reason to reraise otr.

zampana said

PF our KsTc is 32% to the TIGHT calling range of about 20% (JJ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo) and a somewhat looser BB calling range of 34% (JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, 65o, 43o, 32o)

I think the BB calling range will be a lot wider than you said, something like 60% (JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, 32s, AQo-A2o, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o), maybe more.  (assuming QQ+ and AK to 3bet sqz).
          → I didn´t get why you give BB 65o, 43o and 32o, and not T9o, 98o… kind of hands for pre flop calling.

For tight guy, you have played more with him, but I assume a tighter range than you: JJ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo

On the flop: I think the bet is fine. You have TKGK, two PF callers who’ve shown no strength and this board might have middle paired for at at least one of them, and then maybe set up a straight draw to be charged.

I like the bet otf, I think tight guy won´t call that light with floating, because he has to worry about BB; So tight guy with JJ-33, AQs-ATs, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo, KQo, the high cards floats are a “maybe” for me, not sure thing.

BB can be really wide here, or not, depends if he is thinking about ranges or not, like folding 3x, 4x or gutshots, and more.

Once I tighten up their range after the calls, including any sets that they might slow play (which I think is really unlikely), and have them both float your cbet with overs (which they may not):

1- why is unlikely?
2- why they may not?

On the turn: When you give up betting, the tight player would probably bet sets and a made straight, so I’m going to exclude those from his hand. Will leave them in the BB hand, which I think maybe makes some sense for his river bet.

I don´t necessarily agree that tighe player will bet sets and str8s, the board is not scary, there is not much to protect here, A2 and some sets, but otherwise your range and BB range should not be very strong so he can bet turn and river for value. Backdoor flush is more likely to BB, since if you had it, you probably bet again ott.

I agree that BB may have sets and str8s for river bet.

On the river: the Ks comes and knowing nothing more, we’re 78%. But, i think that lead bet from BB might mean a lot. It MIGHT mean villain has hit a K, but I think it’s also very likely they are now betting a made hand from the turn. 

BB range on the river: JJ-TT, 55-33, AQs-ATs, A4s-A2s, KTs+, JTs, 76s, 65s, 53s+, 43s, AQo-ATo, A4o-A2o, KTo+, JTo, 43o

Unless Tight has a King and the bet is reasonable, I’m guessing they will be folding. I don’t think they’ve slow played sets or straights. If you call and tight calls, his range is most likely: KTs+, KTo+. If he raises then by the time it gets back to us I think it’s a clear fold.

I’ve kept a few hands in BB range as bluffs – some of the AJ+, JJ, A3-A4 etc – that might have gotten there because of the turn checks. If you take those out (ie he’ll never lead this river bet with those) then we’re crushed. But with these and keeping Tight in, we’re 50%. 

To me, if you think BB might lead out with bluffs or K high, then this is worth a call only. But if you think BB would have slow played their sets on the flop and planned to check-raise sets and straights on the turn, then I feel like we should be folding…

God I hope all of this is clear!  

I did it quickly, so maybe this is wrong on some hands, but the BB range OTR should be something like: JJ-22, AQs-ATs, A5s-A2s, KTs+, K4s-K3s, QTs+, Q4s-Q3s, JTs, J4s-J3s, T3s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, AQo-ATo, A5o-A2o, KQo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T7o+, 65o, 54o

you can count how many Kx hands there is, and two worst pairs that would call a reraise OTR, or maybe 3bet shove, like T4s, T3s…

Because of your check ott, BB can be raising some bluffs here. Both players should not be strong enough to call a reraise otr if you can win the hand, or pay a big bet with lot pocket pairs or Tx.

zampana said
…
So do you feel like a raise is worth playing here? Using your much wider range for BB we’re 70% so obviously we want to get it all in. I really don’t see AA-QQ showing up at the river 90% of the time, since there was no pfr. Weighing many of the overs and 55-99s and a few other less likely hands at 25%, we’re still 60%. Would you fold to a 3bet otr?  

I cbet the flop as you did, I bet small on the turn, and probably fold to a reraise ott; On the river I just call that lead, I think the range that will call your reraise, that you can beat is way too small for be worth, if I have done the reraise, fold to a 3bet because I think that V´s range is going to be more heavy of monsters that we cant beat.