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EP limper is a fish with stats of 48/9 over 79hands, not necessarily all in this tourney. How do you like my line throughout? What do you think is most optimal line on river….check/fold, blocker/bluff, or check/raise?
No Limit Hold'em Tournament T125/T250
> Buy-in: $8,500 Guaranteed – 2 Rebuys %2F 1 Addon
> Merge Network
> 8 players
> Formatted by pokercopilot.com – Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking
>
> Stacks:
> UTG – UTG (T14,398)
> UTG+1 – UTG+1 (T7,360)
> MP – MP (T5,175)
> SB – Hero (T17,109)
> MP2 – MP2 (T7,142)
> CO – CO (T11,462)
> BTN – BTN (T6,381)
> BB – BB (T12,524)
>
> Preflop: (T575, 8 players) Hero is SB with 9♠Q♠
> 2 folds, CO calls T250, 3 folds, Hero calls T125, BB checks
>
> Flop: 4♥3♥9♥ (T950, 3 players – Hero: T16,834, CO: T11,187, BB: T12,249)
> Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets T500, Hero calls T500, 1 fold
>
> Turn: 5♠ (T1,950, 2 players – Hero: T16,334, CO: T10,687)
> Hero checks, CO bets T750, Hero calls T750
>
> River: 6♥ (T3,450, 2 players – Hero: T15,584, CO: T9,937)
> Hero?
May 30, 2012
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What about leading flop? We get value from a wide range of hands that we beat like 55-88 with a heart, broadway combos with a heart, and worse nines with or without a heart. We can fold if we get raised, but we don't want the flop to check through when it is likely we have the best hand. As played I would just check/call turn and check/fold river. Do you expect the fish to value bet a worse hand? Like if he has a hand like 89, 910 or j9 without a heart I would assume he just checks back. I think his range by the river is weighted towards hands that outdrew us or had us beat already, so by block betting we are more likely to value town ourselves than get called by a worse hand. I don't really like a check raise either because i doubt the fish folds a decent heart, and if hes a station he might just call with stuff like 88h anyway.
One thing to mention here is fish's range here is literally any two cards. Second, he has shown he will fire small with double barrel and triple barrels just when in position and getting checked too but usually does not have it when he fires small. Blocker/bluff could be multi-purpose by not giving up on a big pot and we can completely rep a heart when he does not have one or has a small one. Not sure what percentage of the time he has a heart in his hand but I think it is not that high and especially not with a big one in hand. Check/raise could be the best line to actually rep a big heart in our hand, when I say best line, I mean convincing to a fish, not to a thinking player. Check/fold seems like just giving up on a big pot with good showdown value. Keep thoughts coming.
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