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10's after the bubble
Habeeb
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March 26, 2018 - 9:12 am
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First time posting a hand, so bear with me.  I think I played this hand wrong in several places and then got lucky and then got unlucky.  Playing an ACR tournament, after the bubble about 130 people left.  Blinds 1,000/2000 – 100 ante. 

Middle position player with about 64K raises to $4k

I’m on the button with $48K  and with  10 10 and I flat

BB with $18K Calls. and the flop is 8 4 4.

BB goes all in for remaining 14K and MP calls.  I shove and MP calls with 99, BB has A 8.  Turn is a K and River is a 9 and I bust out.

My Questions:

1) Should I have 3 bet to say 10K or shoved?  I don’t have much or a read on the MP player.  

2) After the flop, when BB shoves, I don’t think much about it and figure he has an 8 or two overs.  When MP calls, I think that should have caused me some concern?  If he has two overs he probably doesn’t want a call from me, so his call doesn’t make sense? 

3) Since he raised preflop and called the BB all in, should I be assuming at this point that he has a PP that beats the BB and so my all in only really has a chance if he is holding exactly 99? 

I feel like although I did get it all in on the flop with the best hand that I was more lucky than playing this correctly.  Any thoughts, questions would be helpful.

Thanks

theginger45

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March 28, 2018 - 12:12 pm
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With 24bb TT is comfortably strong enough for you to be looking to get max value from the hand by either 3-betting or shoving preflop. I think the EV of both plays is probably about the same, but 3-betting to a non-all-in sizing is less desirable if your opponent is more passive and is likely to flat-call rather than 4-bet jamming.

Once you get to a flop, there’s really no other way to play the hand – you flopped an overpair in a low-SPR situation and you definitely can’t say with perfect confidence that either one of them is particularly likely to have JJ+ here. MP can definitely have 8x or perhaps even some weaker hands than that, especially if they also think BB can have random overcards.

It’s a good sign that you were willing to post a hand where you actually got it in good, since it shows you’re willing to self-analyze even in those spots. However, ask yourself this question – if the 9 doesn’t hit the river, would you still post the hand?

Habeeb
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March 29, 2018 - 7:13 am
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Thanks for the response. With respect to the question “if the 9 doesn’t hit the river, would you still post the hand?”  That’s a good question, and I’m willing to bet probably not, but I will add that 4 months ago prior to joining TPE I would not have thought to ask the questions that I did as I would have chalked it up to bad luck and just moved on.  It’s a great point though, and probably more important than the hand in question.  I will try to keep that in mind as I evaluate my play going forward.  Now as I think about it, that question may just be worth the price of admission to TPE.  

DuckinDaDeck
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March 29, 2018 - 4:08 pm
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I think flatting TT is good with slightly deeper stacks (~32bb effective), but I prefer a 3bet here. You benefit a lot from folding out hands like KJ/QJ and you’ll have good equity against most players’ GII range. Most importantly, I really don’t want to see the flop multi-way. We are going to see overcards very often and be in a lot of difficult spots. Flatting is a lot better against a typical UTG/UTG+1 range, but even then you’re probably giving up too much EV by flatting with <28bb.

I slightly prefer a 3bet of 11-12k over a shove, but either play will be very profitable (as ginger said, shove more if you think MP flats often).

I think TT wants to shove this flop, unless you have an extremely strong read that MP is a nit. We do want to be cautious in multi-way pots, but BB is so short that MP can call fairly wide even with you behind. Villain will occasionally be trapping but I don’t think we want to give them too much credit. I see a lot of players get lost in the ‘sandwich’ position and call the BB shove with marginal hands and no plan for reacting to your shoves. I’m assuming flop was rainbow but if there’s a flush draw you can widen both ranges and TT is miles ahead.

Giving both players relatively strong ranges (AQs w/ backdoor flush is MP’s weakest hand, and I’ve got him folding 55-77) on 844 rainbow:

TT has 37.18% equity 

MP has 40.51%

BB has 22.31%

At first glance, it looks like you’ll bust or get crippled ~60% of the time, but you’ll often win a large sidepot even if BB beats you. You have way too much equity to consider folding. MP will probably have at least some folds vs. your shove, and both players might be wider than what I used, so your play has some additional expected value. Adding 55-77 to each player’s range, your equity shoots up to 44.71%.

Very interesting point Ginger makes about which hands we choose to review. I’ve mostly removed my bias but, despite countless hours of study, I’m still usually more motivated when reviewing a hand that I lost.

theginger45

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April 4, 2018 - 1:09 pm
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Habeeb said
Thanks for the response. With respect to the question “if the 9 doesn’t hit the river, would you still post the hand?”  That’s a good question, and I’m willing to bet probably not, but I will add that 4 months ago prior to joining TPE I would not have thought to ask the questions that I did as I would have chalked it up to bad luck and just moved on.  It’s a great point though, and probably more important than the hand in question.  I will try to keep that in mind as I evaluate my play going forward.  Now as I think about it, that question may just be worth the price of admission to TPE.    

I’m glad you got so much value out of that one question!

Results-oriented thinking is probably the most dangerous habit when it comes to sabotaging the poker learning process. It can completely throw us off course and having us running down blind alleys, thinking we have leaks we don’t actually have, and ignoring leaks we do. Every time you evaluate a hand, try to answer the question honestly of whether you would be thinking about it if the result were different, and try to spend just as much time analyzing hands you win as you do analyzing hands that you lose.

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