There are couple things here that changes this from being a standard shove and we also need to know a couple extra pieces of information. How close to the bubble are you? Villian stats show pretty LAG, but has most of his opens been late position or is he opening in early position also? Is 3x his normal opening size? Do you think he has discipline to fold to 3bet shoves? These are important points to know in this situation in my opinion.

If villian has been opening 2.2-2.5x and only in late position, then I would be real suspicious of a UTG+1 3x open and would put him on a much stronger range. With all this said, I need more info to decide what to do here. I never nit it up around the bubble but there are still situational hands where you have to make a big lay down if it is -EV.

hi guys thanks for your input had a look in my HM over the previous few orbits. we are 15 from the money bubble on the last hand, 180 paid with 195 remaining. Here is how the action went, hope it not too long winded for you. his EP raise% was 18%(11)

blinds 300/600 50ante

i open  for 1255 from hj, he 3bets from btn to 3800, i fold

Next hand, UTG shoves for 9k, he reshoves btn with AJs, hits J on river to crack 66

Nexthand, he opens from HJ for 1800 all folds

3 hands pass, then i open from btn for 1255,blinds fold.

blinds 400/800 75

5 hands pass, i open AQo utg for 1655, 3 bet to 7k by supernit so i fold

1 hand passes, i 3bet CO open with AQ, all folds

3 hands pass, i open from co with TJo for 1655, bebatos 3bets to 4950, i fold

2 hands pass, he opens from CO for 2350, all folds

next hand, he opens for 2400 all folds

5 hands pass, he opens in sb for 2k bb folds

next hand i open 77 for 1655 from MP all folds

4 hands pass i get 99 in BB GG

may have gone a bit overboard with this one sorry about that but ive written it now.lol thanks guys

Aslong as the BB doesnt wake up with a hand this is purely a math problem –

What do we guess his range is for calling a 20bb shove?

How much do we stand to win if he folds?

How much equity do we have vs his calling range?

never flatting here

i also think you could go either way

he's EP and is committed to at least one reshove behind him (the SS) and even if the 12bb stack reships he would be getting 2:1 so would probably be calling here too, makes me think he's not light

i'd give a slight edge toward folding than shoving in this case

wouldn't be a bad spot to double through the most aggressive villain and decimate the rest of the table at the bubble though!

thanks for your imput guys has been very helpful, as i said find myself in this spot alot, think i may be able to find the fold button a bit more in the future, generally i have been jamming here in similar spots and am usually flipping, which i see is too high variance in this situation against this sort of opponent. In this particular hand i jammed, got called by AQcc and lost he flip so you are all right with your reads on the situation. Also looking back he reshoved AJs from the button for 60% of his stack to a utg 15bb shove early in the action i described so dont think he is ever folding to my shove in this spot.  will definately be giving this more thought in future instead of just seeing i have a mid pair with 15-20bb, lets get it in. thanks again.