Hey TPE, 

This hand is from early on pre-ante in Sunday's Punta Cana Poker Classic sattelite on America's Cardroom.  I have no HUD stats since my PT4 HUD was not working and I was playing without one.  I think that in a vacuum this spot is a pretty easy shove, but once I explain the dynamic/gameflow I think it may then become an easy fold.  SO first I will post the HH of the spot, and below that will explain the dynamic.  NOTE that BB is sitting out, so when it folds to me on BTN I am heads up vs SB.  Here's the spot in question: 

Winning Poker Network – 30/60 NL – Holdem – 8 players

Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 76.05 BB

MP+1: 77.25 BB

CO: 135.92 BB

Hero (BTN): 132.13 BB

SB: 11.35 BB

BB: 76.33 BB (SITTING OUT)

UTG: 76.58 BB

UTG+1: 81.05 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has  7s8d

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 14.8 BB, SB calls 10.85 BB and is all-in, fold

Now I just ran this in HRC, and this is a very marginally +EV Nash shove when BB is sitting out, assuming SB calls off with a Nash range.  However, the hand just before this Hero got a full double up through villain in a Blind vs. Blind hand where we 3x'd our SB with QJo, flopped top pair vs a Flushdraw+Gutshot and bet/called it off, and doubled.  Furthermore, the villain in the above hand had been sitting out for the first few orbits and just recently sat in, only to lose an all in to me.  Villain was quite active, and I think given gameflow that villain will be calling off much wider than Nash in this spot.  Should we Just fold given this info?  Should we limp or raise small and play postflop?  What are your thoughts?  

FWIW, when I give villain a calling range of 43% (instead of the 32% Nash calling range), this shove becomes -EV by about -0.40bb's.  I'm thinking this is a pretty good spot to just fold based on dynamics.