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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy [$109] UB $25k Sniper

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[$109] UB $25k Sniper

rubbed

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December 22, 2010 - 10:37 am

88 left, top 27 get paid.

This is the second time villian has opened this size in late position.

He was playing 38/21.

Absolute Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100.00/t200.00 Blinds – 9 players

TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

KKOLVILLE (UTG): t16324.00 81.62 BBs

DR_HERB (UTG+1): t16568.00 82.84 BBs

NYUSTUD (UTG+2): t2775.00 13.88 BBs

DREDAY227 (MP1): t9755.00 48.77 BBs

BIGGENEST (MP2): t427.00 2.13 BBs

GRAZ 75 (CO): t8806.00 44.03 BBs

Hero (BTN): t5360.00 26.80 BBs

KALANGIS612 (SB): t10408.00 52.04 BBs

BJSHIPKINS29 (BB): t3110.00 15.55 BBs

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BTN with 7 of spades K of hearts

5 folds, GRAZ 75 raises to t925, Hero raises to t5335

Thoughts on this? I feel theres so much dead money in the pot that this was okay but looking back I am not sure if it was worth risking my tournament life over.

frogman3

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Guests

December 22, 2010 - 10:52 am

I don't like it . There's no antes , you have 27 bbs and it seems a bit of an unneccesary gamble . Yes he's a loose opener but that might also mean he's a loose caller especially with his large betsizing makes me think he's more likely to call too and you know you're gonna be behind . If you had 20bbs I guess I would like it more but rly I'd prefer to actually have a hand against this guy and use his likely wide calling range against him . Ie if you had AT here you'd be shipping it in and loving it expecting him to snap off with A7 or something

mistergj

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Guests

December 22, 2010 - 2:42 pm

If villain is 38/21 and he has some sense of position his range could be 30% in this spot and his calling range versus our shove is likely to be much tighter. Let's say that he opens 30% and only calls only 8.3% (66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+) this is how the Maths looks:

You shove and he folds (91.7% of the time):

You win +1123 chips.

You shove and he calls:

K7o vs an 8.3% range = you win 29.442% and lose 70.558%.

When you win you win 10970 chips (29.442% of the time) so +3230 chips.

When you lose you lose 5335 chips (70.558% of the time) so -3764 chips.

All tolled +1123 +3230 – 3764 = +589 chips, so this is a +cEV spot.

I put these figures into the spreadsheet that RonFez and Hagbard provided on their recent video and that says that EV as a % of stack is 5.69% and the risk of busto is 19.52%. My calculations made this more profitable, but either way we can see it's a +cEV spot, but we have an almost 20% risk of being eliminated. Tough choice. I think I fold in this spot since it's still really early and you have no need to get involved. Also these calculations don't take into account the possibility of the SB and BB waking up with hands so this would definitely push me towards a fold in this spot.

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