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February 8, 2017
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This hand happened with ~1400 people left and just under 1250 make the money. The villain is a winning reg, UTG RFI of 9% (8/87) but that’s likely an aberration, overall stats are squarely in LAG territory. We have enough history that I doubt villain expects me to make tight folds, but I can’t be at all certain about that.The other player involved seems like a TAG reg, only 62 hands so not much to go on but this is their first preflop cold-call.
PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP+2: 64.76 BB
Hero (CO): 37.36 BB
BTN: 17.58 BB
SB: 25.04 BB
BB: 12.81 BB
UTG: 60.6 BB
UTG+1: 14.75 BB
MP: 59.29 BB
MP+1: 41.77 BB
9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has J
J
UTG raises to 2.34 BB, fold, MP calls 2.34 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.34 BB, fold, fold, fold
Flop: (9.64 BB, 3 players) T 5
7
UTG bets 5.3 BB, MP calls 5.3 BB, Hero calls 5.3 BB
Turn: (25.56 BB, 3 players) 2
UTG bets 11 BB, fold, fold
UTG wins 25.56 BB
I know this is an extremely tight fold. The relatively small turn bet can definitely include ATs-JTs, although I’m not sure how often villain does that OOP into two players. Not many straight draws likely but villain can barrel plenty of club draws (which I don’t block).
With a few less BB, I wouldn’t hate squeezing to GII preflop. This is about the best flop/turn I can hope for, so it feels really weird to even consider folding. This hand was over a month ago but I still remember thinking that I absolutely can’t fold, and then eventually deciding to anyway. I didn’t want to put my stack in on the river and didn’t expect many free showdowns. If I’m folding JJ, it’s hard to imagine my continue range has much more than 9 combos of sets and maybe QQ…
Is there any way that the positions and villain betting twice into two players somewhat justify the tight fold or should I just tattoo NIT on my forehead and stop pretending?
November 28, 2015
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After running this hand in Flopzilla, the results were rather surprising to me (due to lack of experience). Ranging villain on the looser side with 60bb and his position this is what I ranged him with: AA-66,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A4s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s
Keeping this in mind, on the turn your hand only has 44% equity against his range.
There’s 14 combos of top pair which would give you 82% equity
There’s 19 combos of over pairs (including the 1 combo of JJ) which your equity goes way down to only 6%.
There’s 6 combos of sets which puts your equity at 4-5%
There’s 17 combos of Fl. Drs which spikes your equity to 70%
There’s 4 combos of OESD which brings your equity up more to 82%
so that’s 35 combos of hands you beat VS 25 combos of hands that crush you (actually 24 combos because 1 of those combinations you tie with)
So, based on this information it seems plausible to continue to the river. Now, here’s where my inexperience comes into play: I would have probably raised on the flop, and jammed the turn. The problem with this or the inexperience is that I have no real good reason why. That’s just my natural instincts. (and usually it doesn’t work out well for me but sometimes it does).
Going back to the Flopzilla results, I want to say based on these I think we should continue but my reasoning (whether right or wrong) is because of his turn bet-sizing. It almost seems like he went smaller on sizing so as not to induce a raise. I think he could def. be playing like this with AK. But I am sure he could also be doing this with QQ KK AA? Not totally sure. I will check back here tonight after work, it’s 6:47am and I gotta get moving to the work grind (I’d rather be grinding poker
). Looking forward to some responses when I come back!!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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MK,
If I’m reading correctly, it seems like you’re starting with a reasonable pre-flop range for the Villain but then assuming that that is still his range after he bets both the flop and turn. You need to continue to narrow his range with each action he takes.
November 28, 2015
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Ok. Thanks, Andrew.
If I am to understand Foucault correctly, here’s what the equities would look like:
Overpair: 19 combos AA, KK, QQ, JJ …we have roughly 7% equity against
Set: 6 combos TT, 77…we have roughly 5% equity against
Flushdraw: 17 combos A8+, A4&A6, KT+,QT+, J9+, T9-98…we have roughly 70% equity against
OESD: 4 combos 98…we have roughly 82% equity against
Now, this is where I am not completely confident that I understand Foucault fully. Does this range seem correct? or do we take out the Overpairs? It seems likely (to me anyway) that we could play an overpair this way against this board texture, especially since we opened from EP so we should expect to see a much tighter calling range from the HERO preflop. Someone correct me if I am wrong, please.
So now, having narrowed his range a bit more we are looking at 24combos of hand that crush us, and 21 combos of hands that we are crushing. I have a question now though, because I am finding it a little more difficult to utilize this information correctly. since we are beating 21 combos, losing to 24, and we tie with 1, at first glance it seems like the bad out weigh the good. BUT, not by much. To me, it seems like there is enough combos in his range that we beat to justify seeing the river. I don’t really know how to calculate the math to know if it is +EV to call here. Is this one of those spots where it’s not clear cut on what we do? Or, because of our stack size, is this an easy fold and I am just a HUGE payoff wizard? I really am lost on what to do. I guess my question is, how do we utilize this information (assuming I am understanding Andrew correctly and have narrowed his range right) and use it to make the best decision?
February 8, 2017
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You’re on the right track Maniac. I think you’ve narrowed the range down pretty well but I think you’ve got too many flush draws and I don’t know what happened to the top pairs in your second post. I’m going to work through a similar process and show you what I come up with. I’ll use an opening range of 11.8%: 77, A8s+, A5s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo, KQo
Even though it’s looser than observed frequency, this is a tight UTG range and I doubt villain’s range is much narrower. I’d usually assume a wider range but I expect villain to open fewer hands when there are 3 stacks <20bb at the table.
Villain presumably cbets less often OOP against 2 players than in most scenarios. Of 126 preflop combos (after card removal), I think villlain likely cbets between 49 and 78 combos (39 – 62%). The 78 combo range is:
Overpairs (19), 99/88 (12), Sets (6), Top Pairs (14), A5s (3),98s (4), AK-A8,KQ/KJ/QJ (8), AK-A8/KQ (5), AcKx,AcQx,AcJx (7).
I’d start narrowing that range by removing some backdoor flushes, A5s, top set, a top pair or two, and some combos of 99/88. I’ll remove JdTd (1), most TT combos (2), half of 99/88 (6), A5s but not A5cc (2), A9/A8ss (2), and AcQx/AcJx (4), so I’m assigning 61 combos to villain’s flop range (48% frequency).
The turn card doesn’t block any combos, so now we need to approximate how many of the 61 combos continue betting. In villain’s shoes, I’d be unlikely to barrel missed backdoor flush draws, A5cc, and 99/88. That eliminates 13 combos. The next question is whether villain barrels all of their naked flush draws. I doubt it, but we should expect some of them to bet. I’ll leave 5 of the 8 combos (AK-AJcc,KQ/KJcc). I think we should also eliminate half of the OESD combos.
At this point we’re left with 43 combos which include 19 overpairs, 4 sets, 13 top pairs and 7 draws. I think it would be wise to assume a few top pairs check after the flop action, I’ll remove 4 combos (2/3 T9s and QTs). That seems like a reasonable approximation of the turn betting range. In a heads up pot I’d expect more than 7 bluffs out of 39 combos but I think 18% bluffs is reasonable multiway and OOP.
In case it’s not clear, I counted top pair+ flush draw as top pairs and 98cc as an OESD. I typically do that to avoid counting the same combo twice. I’ve kept all of those in the betting range.
Our equity against the 39 combo range is 34.7%
I’ve made a lot of assumptions to reach that number, but it should be fairly close to reality. We only need 23.1% equity to call the turn bet. Seems like an easy call but we’ll under-realize that equity if we’re ever folding to river bets. It’s hard to imagine that we’ll fold the river often enough to account for the huge difference in equity and price, so I think my fold was incorrect. It’s worth considering the ICM implications of being relatively close to the bubble, but I think that’s still not quite enough reason to like folding.
November 28, 2015
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“You’re on the right track Maniac. I think you’ve narrowed the range down pretty well” -thank you, sir.
I removed AJo+ and KQo plus a few more suited hands, and this is what the range looks like:AA-TT,77,AKs-A8s,KQs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s
I’ve kept in TT and 77 but removed 88/99. And I also removed KJs, QJs,
I think this range might be a little more accurate given we have faced a flop and turn bet. I think it’s very likely he is betting his sets, I can see a case for keeping in the 89 of clubs and T9 of clubs. I think we definitely remove A5 of clubs on the turn. And now that I am thinking about it we might even remove A8 and A9 of clubs.
So his possible range would look like: AA-TT, 77, AKcc, AQcc, AJcc, and ATcc. KQcc, KTcc, QTcc, JTcc, T9cc, 98cc.
I am going to leave it like this for now because I have to head to work. It’s raining out and of course my driver side window broke and is stuck down. But I do have more to say so I will continue later on today. Have a great day all!
November 28, 2015
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Sorry I didn’t get back to this today, tonight was the $1000 GTD $15 buy in tournament at my local casino which I played in. I get out of work at 5:30 and the tourney starts at 7. I’ll def. Get back to this tomorrow after work or this weekend.
November 28, 2015
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Against this range;AA-TT, 77, AKcc, AQcc, AJcc, and ATcc. KQcc, KTcc, QTcc, JTcc, T9cc, 98cc we have 40.66% equity and our hand is best 46% of the time.
If we call the turn bet of 11 BB and the villain checks river 20% of the time and we check back, bets the river 60% of the time and we fold, and bets the river 20% of the time and we call/shove, what is that math equation to help us figure out if calling here would be +EV vs folding?I know I should know this, sorry guys.
I think it could be worth calculating (I would have already done that if I knew the formula, sorry again) because if there is a chance that we call the turn bet and villain checks the river x% of the time, I personally would like to know, at the very least for future studying.
February 8, 2017
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I’m curious how you calculated the equity Maniac. Unless I’m missing something, I believe you made a mistake. Running that range against JJ on the turn I found we have 24.2% equity. It logically makes sense that JJ would do significantly worse than it did facing the range I worked with because you assigned 1 less OESD and less top pairs – JJ is only ever drawing to two outs or ahead against hands with 12+ outs.
Regardless, the way to figure out our EV given multiple potential river actions is as follows. You want to calculate the final EV of the result in each possible sequence, multiply each EV by the percentage of the time we expect it to happen, and then add the results of every possible sequence together.
To demonstrate, I’ll work with your frequencies: a check from villain 20% of the time, a shove that we call 20% of the time, and a shove that we fold to 60% of the time. I’ll arbitrarily assume that we win 3/4 of the time that we call a shove or get a free showdown. It’s important to note that these frequencies and win percentages are completely arbitrary and unlikely to reflect reality. The only point of this is to demonstrate how you can do the calculations.
The -11bb represents the amount we call on the turn.
1) Villain checks and we win (15%) EV = 0.15 * (47.56 – 11) = 5.49
2) Villain checks and we lose (5%) EV = 0.05 * (-11) = -0.55
3) Villain shoves and we win (15%) EV = 0.15 * (18.59 + 47.56 – 11) = 8.27
4) Villain shoves and we lose (5%) EV = 0.05 * (-11 – 18.59) = -1.48
5) Villain shoves and we fold (60%) EV = 0.6 * (-11) = -6.6
Adding those EVs together we get an overall EV of 5.13 bb. A turn call is very profitable if those results reflect reality.
We get a different story by changing how often we win after calling a river shove to 1/4.
Only the EV of scenario 3 and 4 change:
3) EV = 0.05 * (18.59 + 47.56 – 11) = 2.76
4) EV = 0.15 * (-11 – 18.59) = -4.44
Adding the new EVs together we get an overall EV of -4.82 bb. Now we are losing a significant amount by calling the turn.
—-
To get a reasonable approximation of how often each result occurs is a fairly involved and time-consuming process, but you can learn a lot from doing it at least a couple of times. You essentially want to decide what villain does with each hand in their range, and assign the frequencies accordingly. Doesn’t sound very complicated, but you need to account for how often those hands take each action based on a wide variety of river cards (and how often each type of card hits the river).
IE. How often does each part of their range bet on a , an Ace, a seven, etc?
Once you’ve figured out how often each hand bets on each type of river, you need to determine (for each river card) how often our hand wins when villain checks, how often we can call a shove, and how often we win after calling a shove. Yeah… it takes awhile. You’ll never get exact answers, but taking the time to approximate the likelihood of each action sequence can really help you make better flop/turn decisions by planning ahead for the river more precisely.
November 28, 2015
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Thanks bro, I saved that! I know it sounds so tedious to do that, but I can see the benefit. Like you said and I totally agree that it will help being prepared for making better decisions and planning ahead.
Yes, I did make a mistake. When I ranged this in Flopzilla, I never accounted for the fact that Flopzilla kept in the AT AJ AQ AK etc of hearts diamonds and spades. This is where our equities differ. And yes I agree, I would expect our equity to plummit as we narrow it down more and more.
Aside from the frequencies, I think it might have been a good fold. The reason I am saying this now is because of the results we are getting in Flopzilla. I mean, I don’t really know what to expect but I am leaning towards the idea that it really couldn’t hurt villain to check the turn with a flush draw or even check the flop. And once you have called his flop bet it’s pretty evident you have something like a draw, top pair or an over pair. And if villain is still betting the turn, it makes his range look so much stronger.
He either bet smaller on the turn because he had a draw/air or because he was still trying to get value out of a worse hand than top pair or an over pair. Either way, I don’t think it’s an easy decision by any means and could be debated but I def. don’t hate your decision. However, I can’t (or haven’t been able to yet) change the fact that I would have called in your shoes. I think this is sort of what separates the inexperienced from the experienced. I still find myself making these types of mistakes where I become to attached to my hand. And it’s not because I am unable to fold JJ it’s because the board misleads me sometimes… I’m working on it though.
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