A A A

Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy $109 20KG Turn/River decision with …

Topic Rating: 0 (0 votes)

$109 20KG Turn/River decision with set

Chuck Blaze

Small Stakes Grinder

Members

Forum Posts: 77

Member Since:
August 21, 2012

Offline

February 1, 2014 - 2:07 pm

Merge Game #75216800-83 (Tournament) | Holdem NL | 01/26/2014 21:24:49 EST | Version:2
Table $20k Sunday Show Stopper – [Deep], 75091316, Seats 9 (Tournament: $20k Sunday Show Stopper – [Deep], 75091316)
Seat 1: hunter127 ($16,413.00 in chips)
Seat 2: jstrizz ($23,864.00 in chips)
Seat 3: thewiseguy2 ($5,401.00 in chips)
Seat 4: PokerQueen2321 ($19,445.00 in chips)
Seat 5: Trizcket ($6,628.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 6: Jockbrokers ($9,921.00 in chips)
Seat 7: italian2203 ($28,925.00 in chips)
Seat 8: HERO ($20,841.00 in chips)
Seat 9: BellaJacob25 ($30,770.00 in chips)
hunter127: Post Ante $30.00
jstrizz: Post Ante $30.00
thewiseguy2: Post Ante $30.00
PokerQueen2321: Post Ante $30.00
Trizcket: Post Ante $30.00
Jockbrokers: Post Ante $30.00
italian2203: Post Ante $30.00
HERO: Post Ante $30.00
BellaJacob25: Post Ante $30.00
Jockbrokers: Post SB $150.00
italian2203: Post BB $300.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Jd Js]
HERO: Raise $635.00
BellaJacob25: Fold
hunter127: Fold
jstrizz: Fold
thewiseguy2: Fold
PokerQueen2321: Call $635.00
Trizcket: Fold
Jockbrokers: Fold
italian2203: Fold
*** FLOP *** [9h Jc Kc]
HERO: Bet $895.00
PokerQueen2321: Call $895.00
*** TURN *** [Qs]
HERO: ?????

This is from a Sunday $109. Villain is a good winning reg. We've played a bunch together. Runs at a 26/15/9. Villain usually doesn't get too out of line or take any spewy aggro line. Plays pretty TAGish post flop.

I'm confused on the best line to take on the turn. Villain has a wide range preflop (lots of Axs, broadways, pocketpairs etc) but when they call the the turn range it really narrows there range down to some piece of the board. How are you proceeding from here?

jonmon101

Midstakes Master

Members

Forum Posts: 116

Member Since:
February 14, 2013

Offline

February 1, 2014 - 2:19 pm

I think betting turn makes sense; I wouldn't expect him to raise w/o a straight too often, as most of his hands have showdown value. Also I think he wouldn't be super inclined to give you credit either i.e. he thinks you're turn betting range will mainly be a straight or some bluff/draw of some sort, and its hard to make a stright. Also if turn goes ck/ck and you bet a brick river, I think it looks like a much more value heavy line. One last point, you may consider ck/r these flop textures with sets in the future; I don't know about you, but this is a board I'm ck/f and ck/c a lot since it kind of smashes his flatting range. Either way is fine, but worth considering.

Third@eye

Grinding Micros

Members

Forum Posts: 64

Member Since:
January 8, 2014

Offline

February 1, 2014 - 2:25 pm

I'd be check calling the turn. With that board he'll most likely fold anything you are in front of if you bet, except maybe 99 or KJ.

OneTime1Time

Sunday Major

Members

Forum Posts: 236

Member Since:
November 4, 2013

Offline

February 1, 2014 - 10:34 pm

A lot of good players aren't going to bet this flop when checked too, purely because this hits their range hard enough they will have some showdown value. Also if you check the flop, they are going to put you on under pair or sets. So I don't think that check raising flop is a good plan.

This board easily hits your opening range, but it should hit a lot of his flatting range as well – however he isn't likely to have a lot of tens in that range, except for TT, JTs and T9s. Calling QT and KT is not good play vs an open.

I'm check calling turn, and evaluting river. I'm calling all “bricks” on the river. Anything that makes this board stronger will be super hard for him to fire into twice(assuming you check call turn). Most two pairs are only going for one street of value.

CCuster 911

Delaware

TPE Pro

Forum Posts: 187

Member Since:
September 28, 2012

Offline

February 3, 2014 - 2:05 am

I definitely bet. You have great blockers against some of the Ts(JT) and we are deep enough that if we face a raise we can profitably chase a boat. He is not going to value bet turn, and probably not bluff that often, so I expect it to get checked a lot. I am betting down on this board, as I think the bottom of our value range shouldnt be just Tx. I also dont want a flush draw to chase for free. It also is guaanteed he is going to raise a T. If we check, I would want to bomb the river pot if he checks back turn(assuming non flush card came)

For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion

pckrrr

Grinding Micros

Members

Forum Posts: 57

Member Since:
September 5, 2013

Offline

February 7, 2014 - 8:26 am

How are you going to balance this? I assume you do want to x/c your 2 pair hands so if you do bet all your sets ott you have something like 22 value combo's which I think is kinda hard to balance, because we are UTG and open range should hit alot on this board.

We block JT but we also block KJ and QJ which reduce the calling combo's that we beat. So I don't think we will get alot of value out of the hands that we beat by firing the turn. Also I don't expect villain to raise the turn when we bet that often, Think there is more value in representing a 2 pair/set hand than representing a nutted hand.

So i would just check my entire range, also the Tx hands and half pot the river when he checks behind. Don't really like the potbet because you probably x/c worse hands so villain prob is going to fold to a big river bet

Foucault

TPE Pro

Members

Forum Posts: 2067

Member Since:
December 6, 2012

Offline

February 9, 2014 - 4:16 pm

CCuster 911 said:

I definitely bet. You have great blockers against some of the Ts(JT) and we are deep enough that if we face a raise we can profitably chase a boat. He is not going to value bet turn, and probably not bluff that often, so I expect it to get checked a lot. I am betting down on this board, as I think the bottom of our value range shouldnt be just Tx. I also dont want a flush draw to chase for free. It also is guaanteed he is going to raise a T. If we check, I would want to bomb the river pot if he checks back turn(assuming non flush card came)

Excellent post, I agree with all of this.

Foucault

TPE Pro

Members

Forum Posts: 2067

Member Since:
December 6, 2012

Offline

February 9, 2014 - 4:17 pm

OneTime1Time said:

A lot of good players aren't going to bet this flop when checked too, purely because this hits their range hard enough they will have some showdown value. Also if you check the flop, they are going to put you on under pair or sets. So I don't think that check raising flop is a good plan.

This board easily hits your opening range, but it should hit a lot of his flatting range as well – however he isn't likely to have a lot of tens in that range, except for TT, JTs and T9s. Calling QT and KT is not good play vs an open.

I'm check calling turn, and evaluting river. I'm calling all “bricks” on the river. Anything that makes this board stronger will be super hard for him to fire into twice(assuming you check call turn). Most two pairs are only going for one street of value.

So do you check-raise bluff this flop a lot? With the assumptions you're making here, it sounds like you should.

Foucault

TPE Pro

Members

Forum Posts: 2067

Member Since:
December 6, 2012

Offline

February 9, 2014 - 4:20 pm

pckrrr said:

How are you going to balance this? I assume you do want to x/c your 2 pair hands so if you do bet all your sets ott you have something like 22 value combo's which I think is kinda hard to balance, because we are UTG and open range should hit alot on this board.

We block JT but we also block KJ and QJ which reduce the calling combo's that we beat. So I don't think we will get alot of value out of the hands that we beat by firing the turn. Also I don't expect villain to raise the turn when we bet that often, Think there is more value in representing a 2 pair/set hand than representing a nutted hand.

So i would just check my entire range, also the Tx hands and half pot the river when he checks behind. Don't really like the potbet because you probably x/c worse hands so villain prob is going to fold to a big river bet

So you're potting the river with all of your bluffs if he checks back turn? Given that this board smacks Hero's range pretty hard, Hero isn't going to have a lot of bluff candidates, which is an argument for betting big on the river with your whole betting range.

pckrrr

Grinding Micros

Members

Forum Posts: 57

Member Since:
September 5, 2013

Offline

February 9, 2014 - 6:25 pm

No I don't want to pot the river

Think it's the other way around. You bet big when you have alot of bluffs in your range to give villain a worse price to call. You bet small when you don't have alot of bluffs in your range to give villain a good price to call worse hands. So when you want to balance your ranges you should size your bluffs small in order to rep the value hands when we only have a couple of bluffs and size your value hands big when we have alot of bluffs to compensate for the amount of bluffs.

When we do pot the river with our betting range villain is getting a bad price to call his 2 pair combo's.

For example if the pot is 800 and we pot the river, villain is going to need 50% for a call (800 to win 1600). Which is going to be hard because we only bet sets and straights and only have a couple of bluffs in our range.

If the pot is 800 and we bet 400 villain is going to need 33% for a call (400 to win 1200). Etc.

CCuster 911

Delaware

TPE Pro

Forum Posts: 187

Member Since:
September 28, 2012

Offline

February 9, 2014 - 7:51 pm

pckrrr said:

No I don't want to pot the river

Think it's the other way around. You bet big when you have alot of bluffs in your range to give villain a worse price to call. You bet small when you don't have alot of bluffs in your range to give villain a good price to call worse hands. So when you want to balance your ranges you should size your bluffs small in order to rep the value hands when we only have a couple of bluffs and size your value hands big when we have alot of bluffs to compensate for the amount of bluffs.

When we do pot the river with our betting range villain is getting a bad price to call his 2 pair combo's.

For example if the pot is 800 and we pot the river, villain is going to need 50% for a call (800 to win 1600). Which is going to be hard because we only bet sets and straights and only have a couple of bluffs in our range.

If the pot is 800 and we bet 400 villain is going to need 33% for a call (400 to win 1200). Etc.

One thing. If we pot river he only needs 33% to call. And if we bet half, 25%. The math you are doing isnt correct. You want to do (your call)/(total pot after your call).:

You are sort of right with the first half. We obviously need to weight our bets along with our range. But this is a very simplified way of looking at bets, as its level 1 thinking. We also want o weight our bets based off villains range and his perception of our range. And in spots like this, on four straight boards, IF the turn goes checked, we have a great spot to merge our hands like this where we are rarely behind(as we dont expect to have a T check turn). So we can bomb it. We have a couple things working in our favor:

1. Villains range is fairly face up. Anyone half competent is going to realize we should have more Tx in our range then him(after checking back turn). This means that it could be a perceived bluff spot for us.

2. Our hand is effectively only beat by Tens. Sure randomly something like QQ, but in actuality if he doenst have a ten we are ahead.

I also dont bluff this river a lot, nor worry about balance a lot. In general, in MTTs I thnik people over analyze the value of balance. You dont get to choose your villains, will rarely get enough a sample to get concrete reads or have to worry about balancing, and spots and stacks are so dynamic that the situations you get in are so disjoint and individualized that comparing them almost does more harm then good(in river spots, obviously you may see a lot of flop spots on similar textures agasint villains)

MTTs are a game of extrapolating a whole mess of incomplete information into a decision.

My range here on river is probably (assuming turn went check/check):

Betting: 80% value, 20% complete air, and my value is probably KJ+

Checking: Bluff catching my two pair worse than KJ to standard bets, check calling occasionaly with something like AK given great odds, and check folding the rest.

Also I made a mistake in my original post in this thread saying:

” It also is guaanteed he is going to raise a T”

What I mean was ISNT.

For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion

OneTime1Time

Sunday Major

Members

Forum Posts: 236

Member Since:
November 4, 2013

Offline

February 9, 2014 - 11:37 pm

Foucault said:

OneTime1Time said:

A lot of good players aren't going to bet this flop when checked too, purely because this hits their range hard enough they will have some showdown value. Also if you check the flop, they are going to put you on under pair or sets. So I don't think that check raising flop is a good plan.

This board easily hits your opening range, but it should hit a lot of his flatting range as well – however he isn't likely to have a lot of tens in that range, except for TT, JTs and T9s. Calling QT and KT is not good play vs an open.

I'm check calling turn, and evaluting river. I'm calling all “bricks” on the river. Anything that makes this board stronger will be super hard for him to fire into twice(assuming you check call turn). Most two pairs are only going for one street of value.

So do you check-raise bluff this flop a lot? With the assumptions you're making here, it sounds like you should.

It took me a solid few minutes to figure out what you are asking here, but I see where you are leading me. Given the assumptions I'm making, we should be check raise bluffing this flop. If villain is always checking his made hands and bluffing his air, it becomes easily exploitable.

Personally, I'm a lot more likely to bluff with my air than bet with my strong hands in postion here, which I'm guessing is something I have to learn to balance better. Is that somewhere along the lines of the donkey finding the water?

Foucault

TPE Pro

Members

Forum Posts: 2067

Member Since:
December 6, 2012

Offline

February 12, 2014 - 8:39 am

pckrrr said:

No I don't want to pot the river

Think it's the other way around. You bet big when you have alot of bluffs in your range to give villain a worse price to call. You bet small when you don't have alot of bluffs in your range to give villain a good price to call worse hands. So when you want to balance your ranges you should size your bluffs small in order to rep the value hands when we only have a couple of bluffs and size your value hands big when we have alot of bluffs to compensate for the amount of bluffs.

When we do pot the river with our betting range villain is getting a bad price to call his 2 pair combo's.

For example if the pot is 800 and we pot the river, villain is going to need 50% for a call (800 to win 1600). Which is going to be hard because we only bet sets and straights and only have a couple of bluffs in our range.

If the pot is 800 and we bet 400 villain is going to need 33% for a call (400 to win 1200). Etc.

Yeah, sorry, I got that backwards. Was responding to posts on like 3 hours sleep after staying up until 5AM for a game 🙂

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
45 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)