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November 28, 2015
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Yatahay Network – 1500/3000 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager
UTG+1: 45,450 (15.2 bb)
MP: 30,475 (10.2 bb)
MP+1: 65,135 (21.7 bb)
CO: 24,025 (8 bb)
BTN: 40,682 (13.6 bb)
SB: 180,912 (60.3 bb)
Hero (BB): 44,149 (14.7 bb)
UTG: 40,536 (13.5 bb)
8 players post ante of 375, SB posts 1,500, Hero posts BB 3,000
Pre Flop: (pot: 7,500) Hero has 8
8
2 folds, MP raises to 30,100 and is all-in, MP+1 raises to 64,760 and is all-in, 3 folds, Hero
What’s your play here, and why?
November 28, 2015
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So I used my shove charts for MP @10bbs: 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A8o+,KJo+,QJo 29.99%
MP1 shoving range for 20bbs looks like this:55+, A5s, A9s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s, AJo+, KQo 36.19%
vs 88 33.82%
As I investigated further, I narrowed MP1s range to this: 88+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+
The equity of 88s went down by more than 4%.
MP= 27.44% MP1= 42.80%
88s= 29.75%
I think this should lead us to a fold. And, to be fair, I doubt that MP1 is over-shoving as wide as my second range. He’s probably not shoving anything worse than this:99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+. I don’t know for sure, but I can speculate.
I would love to hear what you guys think about this spot.
February 8, 2017
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If we go with that 22% MP 10bb shoving range (which is very reasonable) and an approximate range that I’d be looking to shove from HJ of 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJ+:
Hero wants to call 99+, AQs, AK.
AQo is losing 0.02bb while 88 is losing 0.24bb. 77 (-0.82bb), KQs (-0.91bb) and 66 (-0.93bb) are the only other hands losing less than 1bb by calling here. 99 (+1.14bb) is the worst-performing hand in the calling range.
Anytime there are already two all-ins, I prefer to err on the side of overly tight instead of overly loose, so I wouldn’t hate employing a strategy of calling TT+, AQs+, AK. Perhaps even dropping AQs.
If MP1 is only shoving 99+, AJs+, AQ+ then both 99 (-0.55bb) and AQs (-0.42bb) become pretty terrible calls while TT (+1.5bb) and AKo (+1.65bb) are still doing great.
If we widen the initial MP1 re-shove range to include 77, BB wins +0.31bb by calling with 88. I think it’s a bit too optimistic to expect that, especially since MP1 has to account for the deep stack in the SB.
July 24, 2018
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I think the TT+, AK is the right range in practice. The interesting thing is that only one player covers the second AI, so he is not really pushing 20BB, more like 15 in 90% of the cases. If there were several covering stacks behind the 20BB, he’d have to be even tighter..
November 28, 2015
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DuckinDaDeck said
Anytime there are already two all-ins, I prefer to err on the side of overly tight instead of overly loose, so I wouldn’t hate employing a strategy of calling TT+, AQs+, AK. Perhaps even dropping AQs.
3for3 said
I think the TT+, AK is the right range in practice. The interesting thing is that only one player covers the second AI, so he is not really pushing 20BB, more like 15 in 90% of the cases. If there were several covering stacks behind the 20BB, he’d have to be even tighter..
Yeah I agree with you guys.
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