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August 8, 2012
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There are 10 players left in this $3.30 6-max tournament with 1200 runners on PokerStars. Is this an easy shove? I plugged it into ICMizer (ICM %EV mode) this morning and based on Nash Equilibrium calling ranges K7s makes 0.01% or $0.35! Against slightly tighter calling ranges – SB (9.7% 55+,A9s+,ATo+) and BB (22% 22+,A2+,KQ), we make an extra 0.01% = 0.02% or $0.70! Can someone explain these percentages to me and convince me that a $0.70 shove is good here?
SB 39/7 over 98 hands
BB 25/27(! – PT4) over over 12 hands
No examples from either player on their calling ranges.
Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t3500/t7000 Blinds + t875 – 5 players – View hand 2520924
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
BB: BB = 85.4, t597933
UTG: BB = 45.9, t321301
CO: BB = 51.1, t357416
Hero (BTN): BB = 10.4, t73037
SB: BB = 41.3, t289356
Pre Flop: (t14875) Hero is BTN with K
7
2 folds, Hero ???
May 20, 2013
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As much as “math never lies” you have to assume you are getting called and have zero fold equity over the two blinds as a set of two players based on their stats and stack sizes. Because of that, you need to input WIDE calling ranges for them when you do your calculations.
I'll admit, I am on the fence on whether or not I would shove here.
January 28, 2013
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Easy shove on the button with a decent suited King and ~10BB.
I disagree with columbo as to his zero fold equity comment. We have really good fold equity here. The only one I can see calling semi-light would be BB because of his stack. I highly doubt BB is going to be calling 22-55, A2-A5 100% of the time which means its going to be more profitable than Nash suggests. Even so, we are at 10bb and need a few doubles to get back in there and get a top 3 spot. Ship it in and hope for the best.
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August 25, 2012
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ltcolumbo said:
As much as “math never lies” you have to assume you are getting called and have zero fold equity over the two blinds as a set of two players based on their stats and stack sizes. Because of that, you need to input WIDE calling ranges for them when you do your calculations.
I'll admit, I am on the fence on whether or not I would shove here.
Why would we ever assume zero fold equity? We have 10bb. Are you saying that if the two blinds wake up with 74o and Q3o, we're still getting called by one of them? If we were, this would be a great spot to shove, because K7s is a pretty strong hand vs an 'any two cards' range.
Math doesn't lie, but it doesn't tell the full story either. I think in exclusively cEV terms this would be an easy shove, but that's not the issue here. The issue is using Nash equilibrium in a spot where it's irrelevant. It's an ICM spot, in other words a $EV spot, and therefore that's the only metric we should be using. Nash is only relevant if your opponents are playing perfectly, and in a $3 tournament that's just not going to be close to being the case.
You're better served by inputting your estimates of your opponents' actual calling ranges based on your reads on those players, and using the actual ICM calculator part of ICMIZER. The overwhelming likelihood is that your opponents are calling too tightly in these spots, and therefore I would be very confident that this is a shove. It's not the final table bubble and unless there's another very small stack at the other table who might bust soon and give us a chance to pick up that 9th place payjump, i really doubt we can fold here.
August 8, 2012
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theginger45 said:
Math doesn't lie, but it doesn't tell the full story either. I think in exclusively cEV terms this would be an easy shove, but that's not the issue here. The issue is using Nash equilibrium in a spot where it's irrelevant. It's an ICM spot, in other words a $EV spot, and therefore that's the only metric we should be using. Nash is only relevant if your opponents are playing perfectly, and in a $3 tournament that's just not going to be close to being the case.
You're better served by inputting your estimates of your opponents' actual calling ranges based on your reads on those players, and using the actual ICM calculator part of ICMIZER. The overwhelming likelihood is that your opponents are calling too tightly in these spots, and therefore I would be very confident that this is a shove. It's not the final table bubble and unless there's another very small stack at the other table who might bust soon and give us a chance to pick up that 9th place payjump, i really doubt we can fold here.
Thanks for taking the time to respond. I'm confused as to why you think using Nash equilibrium is irrelevant here? I always thought that we should use Nash as a starting point and then widen or tighten ranges depending on what we know about our opponents – is that what you're getting at?
I actually did input tighter calling ranges and used the ICM calculator part of ICMizer(as the original post states) and it suggests the shove is worth 0.02% or $0.70 – can you convince me that this is a profitable shove given those numbers?
January 15, 2014
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I am not yet sophisticated enough in my analysis to understand all the icm numbers etc, but to me this is a shove every day of the week. The stack sizes are such that I think the SB folds often and the BB would not necessarily call with any two and if he does then fine, I am happy to get my money in with K7s against a random hand. With your stack size I just don’t think you can afford to wait for a better spot unless there are one or two shorties on the other table. That would be a useful piece of info to add to this discussion.
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