Ok, ok. I have to work on my bet-sizing. I promise, I will be working on it actively. However, here, I don’t hate the bet-sizing. Mainly because in betting this size, I am happy to pick up the pot on the flop and if we do get called (which we do) I can easily adjust on the turn and river (which I did). I will say, maybe 33% here. But I don’t think in this situation it matters all that much. Actually, I think it might have been the best bet size if cbetting is the best line. Maybe even checking the flop wouldn’t be bad.

I ran this hand in Flopzilla, and I think that I would fold if villain bet anything on the turn and definitely fold if he fires river, regardless of the size.

I ranged villain with a 22% BB defend. This could be a bit more narrow than what might be a standard BB defend range but for conversation sake, I think it’s an ok starting point. So here’s the range I have given the villain:AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s.

On the flop, my hand has very little equity against this range. Being generous, I ranged the villain with a 68% flop calling cbet range, and our hand has only 22% equity against that (Yikes!).

If we narrow his cbet calling range even more to something around 55%, our equity drops 50% leaving us with 11% equity vs his flop calling range. And I think I am being generous by giving him a 55% calling range. It’s probably closer to 40%. Our equity remains at 11% either way.

By the river, our equity is still 11%, which now makes me think this could have been a bluff, if it was, good for him. But either way, we can not call. unless the villain makes a min-bet here, I think we fold every time.