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June 28, 2018
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This hand is from last weekend when I played my local casino’s monthly $100 (1 re-entry, 1 add on) NLHE tournament. This month had a particularly bad turn out of 18 players. This is basically a hyper turbo with 15 minute levels.
We’re down to the final 10 players and we’re all at the same table. Top 3 are paid so ICM isn’t a concern.
I’m sitting in the lojack with 15k in my stack (roughly average) at 400/800 (no antes here!) and get dealt AKo. One player (bad, has open folded her BB multiple times) in early position limps. I raise to 3k, BB calls (her VPIP is around 50% regardless of position, has me well covered) and the limper folds.
Flop: J T 5 rainbow [7200 in pot]
BB bets 4k. Hero ???
Given that I’m pretty short, there are no antes, and pretty much everyone has a re-jam stack my opening range is something like {AQo+, AJs+, KQs, 99+}. On this particular board AKo is pretty close to the bottom of my range.
Do I want to get it in here? I have 4 outs to the nuts and a good chunk of my pair outs should be good but I don’t have much fold equity here. There is also the chance that my hand is good but I think villain’s lead makes this less likely.
July 24, 2018
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Does Villain lead draws? Only value? If only value, then best case you have 10 outs (and it may be worse if Villain has blockers to your outs). You have to put in 12K to win 31.2K, so you need 38%. I think you can find better, especially if someone at the table is VPIPing 50%.
If she is capable of betting KQ/Q9 and worse draws, then by all means go for it.
December 30, 2015
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I think the real mistake in this hand is not shoving pre-flop, especially considering the tournament structure. You just aren’t deep here and even without antes, If everyone folds you pick up 2k chips (~13% stack increase). If you get called you get to see all 5 cards and a chance at a decent stack. MUCH lower variance when you have a call-station in the hand.
I think a villain this unaware of strategy is more likely to have a made hand here so I just take the exploitative approach and fold, and mentally thank them for the hint. Your range doesn’t really matter if she isn’t aware of this sort of thinking. She is looking to bet when she hits.
Even if she does have some draws… There is actually 11,200 in the pot after her bet when the action gets to you are close to a 1:1 SPR. You can really only shove or fold. If you shove 12k she only has to call 8k to win 31,200 (did I do that right?). We all seem to agree that you just don’t have any fold equity here so all your equity is from your hand against her range, which I think is weighted towards paired hands with some combos that block your outs. If I was forced to guess, I’d say you have something like 35% equity…? Not much profit and high risk of bust-out.
July 24, 2018
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I’d be a little less inclined to jam pre with no antes, and at least 2 players who have no clue how to play poker with active hands.
I am sure both are +Cev, but I do think we can do better by playing a pot, even with an SPR of less than 2, against bad players.
Alas, we are now in a spot with close to zero ev; Villain accidentally seems to have bet the right amount to make us close to indifferent between folding and jamming. Of course, they could have check shoved and been in an even better spot..
June 28, 2018
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I think we’re all on the same page.
Jamming pre is fine but most of the time I will just end up winning a small pot. Nothing wrong with that but with this structure I don’t mind taking a higher variance line to try to pick up more chips.
this particular villain probably isn’t betting draws – she’ll check-call those – so not much point in raising. Calling is the worst option imo so I’m not minding the fold as much now.
December 30, 2015
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I totally agree post-flop.
I don’t think I can agree there is a reason to anything but shove in this scenario.
- That limp essentially brings us back up to a normal pot with antees. I’m happy to take down this small pot if no one calls but again what I really want to avoid is putting in 20% more of my stack, seeing only 3 cards and having to fold. Chances are you are no crippled in a fast structure and will end up calling it off with something like Q7s a few hands later.
- You have just over 17BB in ~middle position and I think you tend to get more loose callers in tourneys like this so it is even more likely you are now betting to hit and not going to win many flops you miss (not going to C-bet in to most flops in a multi-way pot)
- I think there is more value in shoving AK and adding fold equity than calling it off (you can’t fold preflop anyway). I know you guys want to win more chips with a premium hand but your equity still isn’t all that great against any two live cards (or under-pairs for that matter, which may decide to fold, thinking 22-77), so I’d rather fold out some of the hands that might try to squeeze.
- If the hand was suited here it could make the play here a little more attractive IMO, offering more post-flop options to win without pairing up.
If you had a few more BBs I could agree here as you can still call a shove, or absorb a bad flop and still have decent stack. I could see putting AA and maybe KK in a small-bet range (or even a flatting range depending on the table) with such a low flop SPR, but not AK for the reasons above.
September 29, 2012
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Preflop, I think my range would be a tad wider in this spot and my raise would be a bit less – maybe 2.6k, but that is just splitting hairs and may not necessarily change this spot.
On the flop, you have to look at your hands: Value hands – Marginal hands – Draws/Air/Bluffing range
Using your range, your value hands are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, and AJs. A total of 27 hands. What are you doing with these? Calling or shoving?
Your marginal hands are 99. A total of 6 combos.
KQs is and OESD and AQ and AK combos are gutshots + 2 overs. A total of 36 combos.
There is 7,200 in the pot a 4k bet to answer and 12k left in your stack. 2.8:1 pot odds. Your direct equity break even point is 26%. Unfortunately, due to your short stack, you cant really call and draw profitably, unless the over card outs are good. So shoving seems to be your best option if your are going to play these.
On a game theory decision, if your are shoving your value range, you should have a balanced number of hands to offset your value hands. You would be shoving 12k and she would have to call 8k to win 23.2k so about 1/4 of your range should be bluffs if you are balancing here. So with 27 value hands you should have about 9 hands for “mathematical” balance. OESDs and AKs/AQs with BDFDs make 10 combos and be the first bluffs I choose from. So with this, AKo falls outside of a balanced range.
Now the next question is can you exploit here? Do you have fold equity? If you have enough fold equity, you can add AKo into your bluffing range, however, based on you comments regarding no fold equity, it is probably pretty safe to fold it here.
December 30, 2015
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There is 7,200 in the pot a 4k bet to answer and 12k left in your stack. 2.8:1 pot odds.
Is this right? Isn’t the pot 11,200 once she bets for a nearly 1:1 SPR?
September 29, 2012
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MovieFX said
There is 7,200 in the pot a 4k bet to answer and 12k left in your stack. 2.8:1 pot odds.
Is this right? Isn’t the pot 11,200 once she bets for a nearly 1:1 SPR?
SPR and pot odds are 2 different things.
December 30, 2015
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You are right of course. Thanks for that correction.
An aside: It is funny, this made me realize how rarely I think about pot odds these days. It used to be a primary decision point. It is still in the back of my mind; a part of a larger strategy decision-point. I mean, I don’t often think of pot odds as a reason to call, like I used to, but rather as a way to a thumbnail equity % as only one factor to decide between folding, calling or raising, how that relates to ranges in play, multi-street planning, etc. I don’t know if this musing makes sense. All that is to say I haven’t thought of the term “pot odds” in a long time…maybe I should, or maybe it has diffused in to other ways of thinking, I’m not sure, but will think on it. I may just be out of practice in explaining my thinking and that is a good reason to be back on these forums.
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