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November 25, 2017
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1$ tourney on pokerstars
UTG: 7,620 (30 bb)
UTG+1: 8,978 (36 bb)
MP: 6,676 (27 bb)
MP+1: 3,950 (16 bb) stats:22/18 46 hands
LP: 4,221 (17 bb)
CO: 7,364 (29 bb)
BU: 4,270 (17 bb) 45/8/Agg:1.2 , 29 hands
SB: 3,780 (15 bb)
BB (Hero): 11,087 (44 bb)
Pre-Flop: (645) Hero is BB with 3♣ A♦
3 players fold, MP+1 raises to 500, 2 players fold, BTN calls 500, 1 fold, Hero calls 250
Flop: (1,895) 2♣ J♦ A♥ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 853, BTN calls 853, Hero calls 853
Turn: (4,454) 5♥ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 checks, BTN bets 2,227, BB (Hero) folds, MP+1 folds
hello TPE,
I think preflop and on the flop is standard. however on the turn when the fishy guy bets so big and its AI do we have to call here?
I think that probably yes as I see it now there are some weaker hands he could bet like Jx with draw or naked draws etc.I am not sure though.
Thanks !
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I would fold the flop. Try doing some equity calculator work with this. With two people showing interest, the chances of someone having you dominated are quite high.
November 25, 2017
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yes, that’s true ! thanks for the answer!
July 11, 2012
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I probably stick around on the turn, you’re not particularily worried about the original opener anymore and button most likely still has floats in his range, there are many scenarios where button floated flop expecting to get heads up and ended up following through on his original plan here and we even picked up additional equity on the turn.
Folding the flop is to me out of the question, if we fold out this hand we have almost no hands that can defend this particular flop unless you prefer floating gutshots for some reason. don’t be a nit
If you want to talk ranges the original openers has all his junk hands on this turn and a diminished number of nut hands since he would have reason to double barrel those a lot vs two callers, button has some stronger aces, some sets but I’d give him a bunch of Q10 or pure bluffs as well as a bit of Jx given the level we’re playing at just going fuck it I bet, besides we have a bunch of hands we want to fold on the turn, QK K10 Q10 QJ etc etc and villain is shoving for roughly pot? That would mean we’re defending what 50% of our range? Possibly a little bit less since the original raiser could still be trapping, either way if we want to fold some aces I’d rather fold aces without a gutshot like A6o-A7o and call the rest
February 5, 2015
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Foucault said:
“I would fold the flop. Try doing some equity calculator work with this. With two people showing interest, the chances of someone having you dominated are quite high.”
If we fold the A high flop Andrew, aren’t we better off not defending the BB with a3 in the first place?
Unless it is your intention to call vs one villain, but fold vs. two OTF I guess.
nospa said:
“yes, that’s true ! thanks for the answer!”
It’s not necessarily “the answer”. It is an opinion on how to play the hand. Coming from Foucault however…it probably is as close to “the answer” as you’re likely to get. Just be mindful not to take every opinion on a hand as cemented fact is all I am saying.
Edit: then again, maybe you just meant “thx for the reply”. In which case…
what I said still stands 
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Guys I welcome the disagreement but please do address my argument. Show me the ranges you would assign these players and demonstrate why calling is +EV. Then we can discuss the validity of those ranges. “Don’t be a nit” is not proof of anything. “Why did we call preflop?” is not proof of anything. These are not good ways to make your decisions, or to encourage other people to make their decisions. Thinking in these terms is not going to make you better at poker. You need to be thinking in terms of equity and EV.
July 11, 2012
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I mean I did explain my reasoning in my comment but if you want to play that game, saying “the chance of someone having you dominated are quite high” is not “proof” of anything either, it’s always risk to play top pair weak kicked multiway, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be profitable, if anything I feel better about doing it in this spot since I’m blocking better top pairs and have no overpairs or likely 2pair holdings to worry about. I didn’t feel the need to adress your “argument” since I didn’t feel that you even made an argument. The “don’t be a nit” part I feel like I backed up pretty well even with the ranges I provided in the last post by saying that I personally have plenty of worse hands than this that want to call flop. I would not have called OP crazy if he asked this exact same question holding KJs on the turn but I would have replied more along the lines of we’re not blocking any aces and we’re blocking the hands we want villain2 to have with out king so even if there’s a chance we’re ahead this is not a great combo to call with. This is pretty much the opposite scenario with one of our nut best bluffcatchers
If you want to talk about equities the best I can do is spell my reasoning out for you. I believe villain1 possibly takes this line with ALL of his gutshots, all of his 89s all of his 33-1010 that missed. I also believe he cbets his JJ/22 combos that hit a set and possibly all his Ax combos. I believe villain2 is calling flop with all of his Ax, much of his Jx, maybe not 100% floating all his gutshots but it’s fairly likely he’s floating to jam those on the turn or simply calls them because he’s overvaluing them and don’t want to fold so give him maybe 2/3rds of gutshot combos, ofc villain 2 has his bottom set combos as well. We can then remove a couple of those hands from the ranges if we think our villains are bad/nitty but the core of those ranges still stands and we have to re-add a few extra combos to accound for random no equity spew from villain2.
Out of those I believe villain1 is rarely trapping the turn into 2 people, he might but it’s not extremely likely with 2 players showing interest I’m assuming he keeps barreling nut combos which I feel includes AQ-AK and AJ/A2s, that means the checking range we’re worried about villain1 having is A6-A10 and the occasional rare nut type hand on the turn.
Villain2 also have some nuts but is likely to follow through and ship a lot of hands when checked to on the turn, including Jx and gutshot type hands a %age of the time, discount a handful of combos if you’re not convinced he ships those 100%. And again if he’s jamming for a pot we only need like 33% equity which we easily have if he has bluffs in his range basically at all since he doesn’t have too many nut hands on that board, if we had exactly 33% or something like 38% vs villain2 I’d consider folding because of the trapping potential of villain1 but we ourselves definitely have some nut hands in our range with this line as well so he can’t just rip it and and force us out without worrying so I’d assume he’d be fairly honest if we call. In short I range villain2 on that turn to all the Ax combos he’s calling pre which is mainly the suited ones, the occasional offsuit wheel ace and A10-AJo, I also give him at least literally 2/3rds of all suited broadway combos as well as KJ-KQo and I wouldn’t be shocked to find him holding the occasional offsuit broadway hand that I didn’t cover, this plus 22 is the range I give him here which is literally the range I give him on the flop.
So in order to fold the flop we’d have to claim that most of what I just wrote is bullshit, villains are rarely bluffing, rarely floating and the original opener isn’t stabbing the flop with nearly enough of his air hands. On top of this we accept that we’re playing a style that leaves us open for exploits since we’re folding super high in our range on this board to a single flop bet and maybe that’s not terrible to do for some people especially since we don’t have to defend nearly as much after button calls however as stacksized are I’m not super worried about making a big mistake by getting it in vs button on this board and therefore I’m more than fine calling flop personally.
March 29, 2016
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I’m not gonna disagree with folding a flop here.
However my concern is our call pre-flop. We have 6/1 odds pre which gives us 14.5% to call.
If we are folding top pair on the flop, then we basically hope to flop a straight, 2 pair or trips to continue. I don’t have the exact maths but flopping such a strong hand should be well below 14.5%.
So, should we really call on the flop?
February 20, 2015
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Figuring out ranges can help you see the answer to that question quantitatively. Andrew’s right.
Qualitatively the difference on the flop is you have the button flatting with you yet to act. When you call pre, think about what you’re expecting to have happen on the flop.
The button calling on the flop removes a lot of pocket pairs from its range (why float with 2 outs when the board has 2 overcards already), making your relative strength weaker, because the button would have folded many of the hands you beat.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I guess I came across badly in my last post, apologies for that. My objective here in these forums is just to point you all in the right direction, not to spell everything out as thoroughly as I would in a video. So yes, I will sometimes encourage you to do work that I am not actually doing myself. That said, I appreciate the effort Richard put into his post, and I seem to have given some offense, so I’ll do something more substantive here.
It seems like a stretch to me to expect MP to consistently bet hands like Jx and gutshots into two players on this board, but I may be underestimating how badly people will play in $1 tournaments. Likewise, I think expecting BN to have lots of gutshots is optimistic. As long as you are comfortable with those assumptions, then I think calling is correct, but even then it may be thinner than you realize. This is the value of doing equity calculator work rather than using the kinds of heuristics that you’re forced to use in real-time: it enables you to see how sensitive the results are to various assumptions you make, which in turn enables you to evaluate how comfortable you are with those assumptions and how the outcome would change under slightly different conditions. Here’s Hero’s equity under what seem to me generous assumptions:
…..rategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP 40.47% 37.01% 3.46% { AA, JJ, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }
BN 35.44% 31.72% 3.72% { AQs-A2s, KJs+, QJs, AQo-ATo, KJo+ }
BB 24.09% 20.54% 3.55% { Ad3c }
You have 24% in a spot where you need to realize 19%. Note that realizing is not the same as having; you’re going to be out of position to two people with a hand that’s unlikely to improve. So you shouldn’t expect to get 100% of your equity. Still, you will show a small profit if you get 80% of your equity, so if you’re comfortable with those assumptions, then calling is OK. But you should take note of how close this is. To a larger bet, it would be a fold, even with these assumptions.
There are a few lessons to take away here:
1. People’s ranges tend to be really thick with Ax, and those combos add up quickly enough that even the Ace in your hand doesn’t make it too hard for someone else to have one.
2. In a multiway pot, there are other blocker effects going on. If MP has a Jack, then Button is less likely to have one. This effect is even more pronounced when there’s a flush draw on board (eg, it’s hard for both players to have draws, which means one of them probably has a made hand).
3. The times you’re ahead, you aren’t a big favorite compared to how badly you’re doing the times you’re behind. It’s not enough simply to note that you could easily have the best hand here. Yes, you could, but when you do your opponents often will still have a combined 8-9 outs, whereas you have 3 or fewer outs when you’re behind. So really you need to be ahead a LOT more often to make up that difference.
4. Ranges are different in a multiway pot. MP’s betting range should be tighter and BN’s calling range should be tighter. So the fact that this would be a clear call in a heads up pot doesn’t mean it’s a clear call in a multiway pot.
5. The idea of defending some X% of your range functions differently in multiway pots. First off, when you are calling from BB, even in a heads up pot, you won’t necessarily be able to make the original raiser indifferent to bluffing. He starts with a stronger range than you do and gets to do some bluffing as a result. But in multiway pots, the burden of making him indifferent to bluffing is distributed between all the other players. So you don’t need to defend, say, 67% of your range facing a half-pot bet. Rather, all other players collectively need to defend 67%.
6. When you call pre-flop, you are looking for more than just a certain flop. The actions of your opponents also provide information about how likely your hand is to be good. So you don’t want to say things like “If I call pre-flop, I have to call X flop” – that doesn’t take into account context like bet sizing, number of players who show interest, etc. All of that context is relevant. There are times to call/raise flops that don’t improve you and times to fold on flops that do. It’s not just about the cards on board, you have to consider ALL of the information you have.
Happy new year!
July 11, 2012
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I agree with a lot of your points but if you don’t mind I have some questions. First if I’m being nitpicky I’d almost remove AK-A10o complete from buttons range since I think even mediocre players are getting these in pre given positions nowadays. Now I didn’t realise the original raiser was so short, this does change how I range him and I’d probably give him a fairly tight range here pre and not include many suited connectors or one gappers if any at all
Did you also assume villain to have a tight range due to stacksizes here, is that why you assumed villain1 to only be Cbetting hands with equity on this board?
Maybe I wasn’t too clear but I don’t expect the original opener to have many jacks here, what tips it a bit for me is that I gave the opener a bunch of no equity hands that didn’t block buttons range although given his stacksize and no reads I now feel it would be better to assume him to correctly open tighter pre, in which case I agree with folding flop for sure
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Richard said
I agree with a lot of your points but if you don’t mind I have some questions. First if I’m being nitpicky I’d almost remove AK-A10o complete from buttons range since I think even mediocre players are getting these in pre given positions nowadays. Now I didn’t realise the original raiser was so short, this does change how I range him and I’d probably give him a fairly tight range here pre and not include many suited connectors or one gappers if any at allDid you also assume villain to have a tight range due to stacksizes here, is that why you assumed villain1 to only be Cbetting hands with equity on this board?
Maybe I wasn’t too clear but I don’t expect the original opener to have many jacks here, what tips it a bit for me is that I gave the opener a bunch of no equity hands that didn’t block buttons range although given his stacksize and no reads I now feel it would be better to assume him to correctly open tighter pre, in which case I agree with folding flop for sure
I think the biggest lesson you should take away from this discussion is that you went all the way through that massive post explaining why Andrew was wrong, before you had even looked at the stack size of the original raiser. It shouldn’t be possible for you to miss such an elementary detail of the hand like that – the stack size of the original raiser should be the foundation of your assumptions about their range, which then allows you to decide whether you agree with Andrew or not. If you haven’t even looked at stack sizes, any assertions you make about the hand are pretty much entirely irrelevant.
July 11, 2012
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I think that’s pretty unfair. Anything can be missed even if you see it at the start of your analysis, ofc I used stacksizes as the basis of my analysis and at some point I must’ve found it reasonable to put bluffs in the opening range of the lojack even if I disagree with the quantity of those later on looking back checking my work.
I do take some offense from that comment since I’m not here to explain why anyone is wrong but rather to pick his brain and try to understand where he is coming from in a spot I’d mainly autopilot vs a button this loose, some percentage here I’d probably even jam pre and I would assume that can’t be a big mistake. I really don’t give a shit if anyone is “wrong” or right, my main take away from this discussion is as he explained it that if we can’t put many no equity combos in his cbetting range, then we have some unfortunate blocker effects against us that make it hard for both villains to be light (even though I think that IF we do reach the turn we’re putting chips in the pot due to the small likelyhood of original raiser trapping and super loose stats and stacksize of button, something I doubt anyone would disagree with)
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Richard said
I think that’s pretty unfair. Anything can be missed even if you see it at the start of your analysis, ofc I used stacksizes as the basis of my analysis and at some point I must’ve found it reasonable to put bluffs in the opening range of the lojack even if I disagree with the quantity of those later on looking back checking my work.I do take some offense from that comment since I’m not here to explain why anyone is wrong but rather to pick his brain and try to understand where he is coming from in a spot I’d mainly autopilot vs a button this loose, some percentage here I’d probably even jam pre and I would assume that can’t be a big mistake. I really don’t give a shit if anyone is “wrong” or right, my main take away from this discussion is as he explained it that if we can’t put many no equity combos in his cbetting range, then we have some unfortunate blocker effects against us that make it hard for both villains to be light (even though I think that IF we do reach the turn we’re putting chips in the pot due to the small likelyhood of original raiser trapping and super loose stats and stacksize of button, something I doubt anyone would disagree with)
I think if you talk to 100 high-level poker players, 0 of them would be able to get deep into the analysis of a hand without paying close attention to stack sizes. I was making an observation about your approach to analyzing the hand, and your defensiveness is just masking an unwillingness to self-analyze.
July 11, 2012
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I’m resisting the urge to call you a dick right now because I feel like you’re simply misunderstanding me. Do not confuse me retrospectively questioning how and why I ranged a certain villain a certain way with me not working off off a solid foundation . Making an observation is one thing but taking it as truth is another which is something I feel you took too far. I won’t be ashamed of getting defense when I feel I’m being treated unfairly or misunderstood and I think you’re out of line claiming I’m not willing to analyse myself
fwiw I still think the ranges we assigned both villains didn’t include enough garbage to represent a 1$ mtt field early on, especially the floating range of a villain who’s calling 45/8 pre over a small sample. not that it makes a huge difference to what we’re talking about
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Richard said
I’m resisting the urge to call you a dick right now because I feel like you’re simply misunderstanding me. Do not confuse me retrospectively questioning how and why I ranged a certain villain a certain way with me not working off off a solid foundation . Making an observation is one thing but taking it as truth is another which is something I feel you took too far. I won’t be ashamed of getting defense when I feel I’m being treated unfairly or misunderstood and I think you’re out of line claiming I’m not willing to analyse myself
fwiw I still think the ranges we assigned both villains didn’t include enough garbage to represent a 1$ mtt field early on, especially the floating range of a villain who’s calling 45/8 pre over a small sample. not that it makes a huge difference to what we’re talking about
Saying “I’m resisting the urge to call you a dick” is not resisting the urge to call someone a dick.
Did you notice I haven’t actually expressed an opinion about the hand yet? Both your replies to me have been talking as if I’m disagreeing with you, but I don’t necessarily think anything you’re saying is incorrect or inaccurate. I think you would learn something from asking yourself why it is you’ve had such a strong reaction to my posts.
July 11, 2012
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theginger45 said
Saying “I’m resisting the urge to call you a dick” is not resisting the urge to call someone a dick.
Did you notice I haven’t actually expressed an opinion about the hand yet? Both your replies to me have been talking as if I’m disagreeing with you, but I don’t necessarily think anything you’re saying is incorrect or inaccurate. I think you would learn something from asking yourself why it is you’ve had such a strong reaction to my posts.
true, let me rephrase that. I mean that just because I felt offended doesn’t mean you were trying to get on a high horse or put me down in any way.
At this point I’ve said most of what I have to say but the reason I felt offended was because I felt like you misunderstood my intention, especially saying “you went through all that trouble explaining why the first reply was wrong” which isn’t something I would ever aim to do, nor would I be so focused on disagreeing with another player that I didn’t start out looking at important aspects and information provided about the hand, that would be the worst approach imaginable.
If that was something I was doing I would need you to explain to me why that was bad and unproductive but I would be careful how agressively you phrase that, because the way I see it the subtext is that you’re calling the person either stupid or ignorant while pointing this out
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