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1.1k live event early ITM: supershort stack: reship to gambleup or fold 44?
Sen
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December 8, 2015 - 9:23 pm
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Hi,

this is from my first live-event I ever played.

~1900 runner, we are 250 left, 8-handed, early ITM.

I am one of two super-shortstacks at the table with 55k (M<5), blinds are 2.500/5000 ante 500.

I am sitting UTG+1, UTG, the bigstack at the table (~300k+) opens for 10.500. He seemed like a very competent math-based player, checking chipstacks of other villains often, knowing when to call a raise (odds), how to value bet and how to range people. He recently chipped up by more than 50%. Except from a guy to my left with a very small stack the other players all had 100k+ and most had been playing pretty tight.

My image at the table was aggressive and “not caring for the money” as I had reshipped and shipped AI pretty often shortly (30+) before ITM. I was low stack M 9 – 6 and took every spot that seemed heavily +cEV/slightly +$EV (AI-squeeze QTs from BB, 3bet-shoving QJ vs a loose passive player when I coul still hurt his stack significantly before ITM etc.). I never had to show down, though (nits! ; -).

Now I look down at 44… and jammed. My ranging for UTG-villain was like 50% of his 76s – T9s, 50% 22 – 55, 50% AToand Axs, 50% KQo and almost any JTs, QJs, KJs+, AJo+, 66+.

I felt like the other players would often fold most of their mid-strong holdings (AJo, 88 and below, any KQ) as the bigstack would be a high threat to their stacks if he decided to call. I was pretty shure I had max 5% fold-equity against him, but I was ready to flip (most of the time) to get some breathing room if I double as I would soon be in the blinds and then my stack would still be pretty low even if I managed to double the next orbit.

Much talk, easy question: Do you like the reship? Why? Why not? Sould or shouldn’t we gamble here?

Thanks!

Foucault

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December 8, 2015 - 10:30 pm
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Not good. I didn’t crunch numbers but seriously doubt you are 50% against Villain’s range, not to mention the significant risk that someone behind you wakes up with a hand. “Gambleup” is never a good way to be thinking in a tournament. If a shove is +$EV, you make it, but you don’t do it just to gamble. Of course doubling up would be nice. And busting would not be nice. And those things are already quantified and accounted for in an EV calculation. In tournaments, chips you lose are always worth more than chips you win, which is why gambling for gambling’s sake is no good.

jonmon101
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December 9, 2015 - 6:46 pm
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This actually seems interesting. I think if you had a super nitty image, he might shrug fold some hands were flipping vs and it does look very strong. I’m for sure folding here, but I can see some arguments against it…

florianm1
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December 10, 2015 - 4:43 am
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88+,AJs+ is prob shipping range here. 

you have little FEQ vs UTG and the chances someone behind waking up with a >10% hands is i think something around 20%(guesstimation only :P) 

 

plus your image does not help you as UTG might end up calling with stuff like 66 he would normally fold

Foucault

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December 10, 2015 - 11:08 am
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florianm1 said
88+,AJs+ is prob shipping range here. 

you have little FEQ vs UTG and the chances someone behind waking up with a >10% hands is i think something around 20%(guesstimation only :P) 

 

plus your image does not help you as UTG might end up calling with stuff like 66 he would normally fold

If we’re talking about 6 people who each have a 10% chance of calling you, that’s going to be close to 50% I think (there’s a 19% chance that one of two players has a top 10% hand). That said, I doubt they’re all calling that wide, but still, someone behind will wake up quite often.

florianm1
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December 10, 2015 - 3:53 pm
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well its (1-(1-.1)^6)=0.43 which is closer to .5 than to .2 ?

theginger45

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December 14, 2015 - 8:06 am
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The word ‘gamble’ should never be in your vocabulary as a poker player. Something is either profitable or it’s not – ‘gamble’ implies it’s not, which means you shouldn’t do it.

This is a poor play, when you “only have 5% fold equity” then your opponent’s opening range needs to be pretty wide in order for your EV to be decent. In this case it’s not, so it’s not going to be profitable to get it in here.

Sen
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December 14, 2015 - 9:20 am
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Thanks a lot for the responses, guys.

It’s a little sad I made this clearly -€EV play. I fell exactly into the trap, Andrew warned me about: Trying to force something when being “card dead”. This was the first pair I’d seen this day. Looking at my chipstack it felt like a present from the poker gods. I clearly didn’t think it through, acted pretty quickly with my reshove, probably hoping to have some FE, although with a little thought, I would have known I had almost none.

Anyways, this was a great experience, I feel like I did learn a ton of live-related stuff. Still embarassed I made this play after playing several 100k hands online this year. : o

Well, time to move on, will be playing my next event in about five days.

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