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$1.10 1.5k Gtd on stars, pre ante hand reading check

Juni0r83

South Australia

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August 9, 2013 - 12:39 am

PokerStars - $1+$0.10|75/150 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 15.83 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 10)
UTG+1: 40.33 BB (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 9)
UTG+2: 17.5 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: 13.17 BB (VPIP: 10.47, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 88)
MP+1: 22 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 34.6 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 75)
BTN: 31.52 BB (VPIP: 26.42, PFR: 9.80, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 53)
SB: 37.67 BB (VPIP: 67.74, PFR: 30.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 62)
Hero (BB): 34.83 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has  4

 

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, UTG+2 calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, fold, Hero checks

Flop: (4.5 BB, 4 players)  A

 
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, [color=red]UTG+2 bets 1 BB[/color], fold, Hero calls 1 BB, fold

Turn: (6.5 BB, 2 players)  4

 
Hero checks, [color=red]UTG+2 bets 1 BB[/color], Hero calls 1 BB

River: (8.5 BB, 2 players)  Q

 
Hero checks, [color=red]UTG+2 bets 1 BB[/color], [color=red]Hero raises to 9.5 BB[/color], [color=red]UTG+2 raises to 14.5 BB and is all-in[/color], Hero calls 5 BB

Just a few quick notes:
His stack size suggests optimum playing style is very different from what he was playing, so I pegged him as a fairly terrible player

Min betting flop and turn suggests someone who is trying to induce but really has no idea how to do it (reinforces my terrible player theory) and also suggests more strength than just a flush draw so I couldn’t put him on that.

My plan was to float the flop, and bet the turn on a scary card but when the four landed, I decided to see if I could get him to spazz out on the river.

Although that’s exactly what I got him to do, I’m still not entirely convinced that i read his hand correctly. I have a great deal of trouble believing that someone could take this line without a supremely good hand. The more I think on this hand, the more I think it’s actually a leak in my game, regardless of the results of this particular hand. Just wondering what anyone else’s thoughts were.

Thanks in advance.

markconkle

High Stakes Shark

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August 9, 2013 - 2:45 am

Juni0r83 said:

Although that's exactly what I got him to do, I'm still not entirely convinced that i read his hand correctly. I have a great deal of trouble believing that someone could take this line without a supremely good hand.

Remember, we are talking about a player in a $1 tourney that open limps his whole range, then minbets three times. This player is very bad. Very bad players play poorly, which means we can't assume they are making good decisions. However, very bad play is not limited to a single style, but is in fact more diverse than strong play, meaning we can't know what bad decisions he is making, unless we have developed a stronger read than just HUD stats. (On a side note, understanding the bad players in your game is incredibly profitable, as they are the players most likely to make large exploitable mistakes).

As such, I think hand reading is not the most important factor in this hand. He could be a player that minbets weak showdown hands, trying to 'name his own price.' Or it could be a player than minbets the nuts to induce, as you suggest. Or maybe a player who minbet bluffs, thinking of how little it costs to take a 'stab' at it. None of these strategies are likely to be very profitable, but they are also possible instances of how a given bad opponent thinks, and together they leave him with basically any possible hand.

As to your specific play, I agree with the flop float. I would lead the turn (3BB), and jam the river. While I don't think we can understand this players hand very well, we have seen passive pre-flop play and pseudo-passive play on the flop. I think this is enough evidence to think that, more often than not, this player is not going to put a lot of chips into the pot aggressively, so we should take charge of the hand ourselves. I think we are more likely to get paid off by a pair by betting than to induce a large bet.

As played on the turn, I don't see the value in checking the river still, as it seems abundantly clear he will not be betting more than 1BB. The risk-reward on check-raising to 9.5 vs. say, leading 8.5 doesn't seem in our favor, and no matter what action he takes, the advantage of check-raising is 1BB, but if he ever checks with a hand that he would have called, we lose 8BB. Not to mention that check-raising is generally considered stronger than leading, something even most bad players know, and I think he is more likely to fold to the check-raise than to a lead.

It sounds like your opponent showed up with the nuts here? Rough beat, but I think you need to maximize your value vs the rest of his range.

Juni0r83

South Australia

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August 9, 2013 - 7:22 am

He didn’t show up with the nuts, in fact, this was the defining moment in my tournament, the start of my deep run (I lost a hand a lot later that left me crippled and eventually out in 68th, but I’ll be posting that hand later). I knew he was a bad player, and as for the HUD stats, I actually didn’t have them at the time. My free trial on PT4 had expired, and I’ve since paid for my copy, and run the hand history through that, so when I was playing at the time, I didn’t have any stats on him, and was multitabling a little too much to notice that he was so passive.

I can see what you mean by bad player, and that what type of bad player isn’t really obvious, and that’s what I need to determine. And I think your comments about my turn check/call and river check/raise/get it in are perfectly valid, and a good example of where I’m normally going to be missing value against almost any other player. I think that’s the thing I’m going to need to work on the most – getting max value.

Thanks.

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