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July 7, 2012
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Not sure this is really the right place in the forum but seeing as how I am starting to struggle with this mentally this seemed suitable.
Every time I have a modicum of success I seem to get hit by massively by the variance bat. I’m a pretty resilient type of guy but this is really wearing me down now. Before i go any further here are a couple of graphs to show you what i am talking about
1. my year to date results, a massive roller-coaster which is now making me feel sick
2. total winnings v all-in equity expressed in tournament big blinds, the blue line is my actual winnings and the orange line is what i should have won if it had gone to EV.
1.
2. 
As you can see quite clearly for the last 40,000 hands (which equates to about 800 tournaments / SNGs) I am running between 1000bb and 3500bb behind my All-in Equity Value. That is a sh** load of bad beats, suck outs ect and is the equivalant of 100 tournamet buy-ins give or take (assuming an average of 30bb per bust out).
I dont care how good you are there is no amount of skill that can over-come that gap. Frankly I think it is a miracle that I have been oscillating about break even in theory. But the reality is that a break even month is a losing month when you have to pay bills ect. The up shot is that BRM now has me back playing micro / small stakes and it is driving me insane, the variance is even higher in the MTTs so to compensate I have been playing 18 and 45 man SNGs which is fine other than I am now on a soul destroying downswing with those as well.
So I ask again where do I go from here? I know variance can be bad, but this has gotten to the point of extreme I feel. I’m not sure how much more punishment myself or my BR can take.
Any of the Pro’s have any words of wisdom or insights?
February 5, 2015
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Hey Turbulence,
I am so sorry you are going through this. I am not a pro, never have been, but I have two things to mull over:
1) I used to be a slave to the all-in EV graph. My actual results line was always below my expected all-in ev line, and I looked in to it. I really cannot remember the specifics of why exactly it is a lame indicator of variance, but for sure the evidence was strong enough that I all but discounted the graph.
2) I know this doesn’t help you immediately, but if we, for the sake of argument, decide that the all-in ev graph is a legitimate resource and gives us solid performance information, then by the same token we have to accept that you are in effect “owed” all that negative variance back. My coach used to say to me when I got sucked out on…”Ah well, theres one in the pot you’re due back”. His attitude totally changed my view on beats.
February 5, 2015
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By the by I am sitting on the step to our new porch. (I wish it was a new Porsche) and a spider was running around on the drive. It suddenly saw me and stopped in shock. I truly wonder what it was thinking, and what it’s consciousness felt like to it as it contemplated me.
I said “hello” to it. And in doing so I became self conscious. It seemed a particularly lame thing to say.
It must have detected some change in the vibe, because it soon scuttled away, totally secure.
October 21, 2012
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“Any of the Pro’s have any words of wisdom or insights?”
I’m not a pro, but I have some. My best advice is “Don’t be a pro.”
What I mean is having another way to make income besides poker is essential to surviving downswings. Even if I win a million dollars, I will always consider myself a semi-pro. I make money through poker off the tables, through other passive income vehicles, and I got a job substitute teaching.
On top of all that, I cut my expenses to next to nothing.
If you can find a way to do these things, you will be able to look at a downswing as just a low score. It should suck temporarily, but it shouldn’t hurt permanently.
I’ve been there bro. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
I went through something similar in 2010. I played 13K SNGs and lost $4K when I should have won $10K. You can read about it here.
Still a very inspiring post if I do say so myself.
I hit another one in 2015 right after I won a sunday major for $27K. I immediately went on an $8K downswing playing live SNGs against some of the worst players in the world. That would have devastated me had I not have used $3K of that big win to buy a van to live in. That decision has saved me a ton of money and worry. I can go months while losing now and not worry so much about it.
Obviously, not everyone can live in a van, but my point is that we all should look for areas where we can spend less money on things we don’t actually need but have been led to believe we HAVE to have. It’s so fun and freeing once you get started. Find the bare minimum where you can live happily and then everything above that will feel like a luxury that can go at any time and not bother you so much.
Also, let me reiterate the revenue side. After winning the $27K, I kept going to my little job where I tutored small kids in math instead of quitting and “going pro.” I was teaching kids how to subtract. Pretty much anybody can do that job. Look for things you can do on the side like that. They have been life savers for me.
Good luck to you my man. You’re in the right place. TPE will help you get through this like it helped me.
July 7, 2012
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Thanks for the responses guys.
Carlos – I’d love to downsize to a van but unfortunately my misses is rather attached to the house we have, and i am rather attached to her. Admittedly there is a bunch of stuff i could trim out of my life, which i am looking into. In the meantime, the lack of profits from the past few months has meant that i have had to cash in most of what was left in my bankroll to cover bills ect so I am taking an indefinite break from serious poker.
TPE Pro
July 14, 2015
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@turbulence
i think you are focusing on the wrong things. don’t focus on your resuts.. focus on your positoinal stats in hud and compare them with a player that you consider better than yourself. (people offer such hud coaching)
from the looks of the graph though i wouldnt be so quick to blame variance, that is a cop out. i would look for a coach that can be very critical with you so that the mistakes seem glaring and blatant.
you seem like a smart enough guy to make something happen in poker, keep with it
also you seemed to have dropped your buyins at the end, this is obviously a good thing.
just dont speak another word about variance and you may be fine…
its like barry bonds complaining that the wind made his home-run go foul… or christiano ronaldo blaming his missed shot on the rain…
study for the rain, study for the wind… be a professional – hope this helps
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I’m not sure what you’re looking for here in terms of advice. I presume you’re looking for an action you can take or something you can do to help overcome this variance?
If that’s the case, it should be fairly obvious that the answer lies in your perspective. You probably feel, deep down, like there’s some theoretical level of ‘bad variance’ that you’re ‘supposed’ to experience, and anything beyond that is ‘simply unfair’. This, of course, isn’t true at all – there’s no limit to how bad you can run.
This will happen to you again at some point in your MTT career if you persevere, and when it does, it’ll be at higher stakes. Ask yourself, am I willing to go through this same experience every time this happens, or am I willing to put in the time and effort to re-evaluate my perspective and expectations from poker?
Just like in life, if you expect to get what you think you deserve, you’re probably going to end up disappointed. All you can do is do what’s in your power, which is to make the best decisions.
October 21, 2012
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Turbulence said
Thanks for the responses guys.
Carlos – I’d love to downsize to a van but unfortunately my misses is rather attached to the house we have, and i am rather attached to her. Admittedly there is a bunch of stuff i could trim out of my life, which i am looking into. In the meantime, the lack of profits from the past few months has meant that i have had to cash in most of what was left in my bankroll to cover bills ect so I am taking an indefinite break from serious poker.
Awesome! I think once you get started finding things to cut, you will get addicted to it. Sometimes, the less you have the happier you will be. Stuff just weighs you down.
Maybe a garage sale will lead to some sort of ebay business. The options are limitless. Anything is possible. You’ve been around long enough that you could even coach poker. Charge $20 an hour and teach fish the basics.
April 28, 2017
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No offense intended, but just looking at your graph it seems to me that there might be some bankroll management issues involved which only compounds the variance ‘problem’. I’m saying it because it seems that after each of those big scores, your graph goes down almost vertically in just a few buyins. Which mean’s you might be playing stakes that are just too high.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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kntz said
No offense intended, but just looking at your graph it seems to me that there might be some bankroll management issues involved which only compounds the variance ‘problem’. I’m saying it because it seems that after each of those big scores, your graph goes down almost vertically in just a few buyins. Which mean’s you might be playing stakes that are just too high.
This is also a very good point. I think there’s a high chance BRM does play into it.
February 5, 2015
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After you pointed this out kntz, I thought it was a good point too. I used to play $109 tourneys on a Sunday with a $300 BR! In fact, in truth, I think one of the reasons my MTT lifetime graph has a negative trajectory is due BRM. I just shot take way, way too much.
But then I listen to guys like Daryl Jace, who binked the first Sunday Million he entered. And it gets me thinking that maybe…just maybe…some of the guys who go on to be household names in T poker only got there because they got ridiculously lucky in a few T’s, and that the good, studious, BR nit might never get anywhere, because he just doesn’t have the balls…or he’s too “sensible” to take significant risks.
Truly, it’s something I struggle with.
However, in Turbulence’s case, as I understood his situation, he was playing as a pro…and I guess just to survive in T poker as a pro, you just gotta follow BR rules, maybe shot-taking once in a pretty while only.
Edit: you know I wonder with you Ginger, you seem always to dispense with excellent advice re: the mental game. Are you always able to follow your own advice…or is it a case of “do as I say, not as I do…”? You really must be very disciplined if you adhere to all your own (great) advice! I’m not being sarcastic… I really mean it.
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