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The dangerous "I cant lose" mindset
AK Mr Blonde
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September 24, 2016 - 2:51 am
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 I just got done taking a long break from poker, and I’m starting to think I need another break.

for the past two weeks I have been on a pretty good winning streak, I have been final tabling 2 to 3 times a night, typically 1 in 5 tourneys I will make it to the final table, sometimes more.

but these past couple days I have been playing terribly. i want so bad to blame the poker sites. but i know whenever I’m playing the way i should be and making good decisions, i am typically do good on all the tables on playing on. but when I’m playing like an idiot my stacks will be pretty low on all my tables. and i usually play merge and ignition at the same time. so i cant blame it on a rigged website.

so the problem i found is that i get in this “i cant lose” mindset. where just about everytime i get into a hand i honestly believe i will have the best hand. I will be so damn concentrated on my hand that i wont even think about what the other people could possibly have that could beat my awesome top pair i just landed. so i will typically lose a big chunk of my stack being stubborn with my hand that i feel cant lose.

so upon recognizing this flaw i overcompensated in the way opposite direction and started folding way to easily. then that ruins my table image and people start running over me like its nothing. i wont be shoving when i should or going all in when i should. then i slowly die in the tournament.

so I’m trying to find that balance again and make good decisions based off what the game is presenting me and not from my emotions.

joelshitshow
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September 24, 2016 - 11:12 am
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Recognizing it is the hardest part, so good on you for that. It just gets easier over time, although I hope someone else has more tangible advice for you.

I can tell you I have had similar swings, and the root cause for me had a lot to do with confidence in other facets of life. Mentally I’m much less volatile now, but I still have my good and bad days. The problem can be when the self-awareness comes after you’re already deep in a tournament, and you’re trying to reconcile all that without getting knocked out. To reference an old Peanuts comic, I call this being aware of your own tongue.

thepokermonk
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September 30, 2016 - 12:07 pm
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AK Mr Blonde,

I feel what you’re saying.  I agree that breaks can be a great refresher, but it seems to me that a break isn’t going to help you very much.  It sounds like you need to put in some work on your mental game.  I don’t mean this to sound harsh.  For one thing, I don’t know any player who doesn’t need to work on some area of their mental game.  But for you, it sounds like you’ve got some mental game leaks that are, like you said, costing you stacks at the table, and will continue to do so until you’ve fixed those leaks.  It can be hard work, too hard for some, to correct issues with your mindset, but let me tell you, it’s worth it!  So many of us separate the mental game and our strategy work when we should be looking at them as one in the same.  You might as well throw strategy out the window if you’ve got mental game leaks that are costing you more than your sound strategy can make up for.  Strategy and mental game go hand in hand and should both be focused on consistently.  My suggestion for you is to find a good mental game coach to help put you on a path of success.  I’ve been working with a mental game coach (in addition to a strategy coach) and I can’t even begin to tell you how much it’s improved not only my game, but my life general.  The coach keeps me accountable, inspired, and looking honestly at where I need to improve.  Yes it can be expensive.  But so can dumping stack after stack.  And like the previous poster said, just recognizing that you have these leaks is a huge first step.  Now be the player who does the hard work of fixing them, whatever that might mean for you. 

Check out my blog: thepokermonk.com

Follow me on Twitter @thepokermonk

The Riceman
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October 1, 2016 - 1:17 pm
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Hey AK Mr Blonde…you sound to me like a cross between a Bond villain and…well actually you sound to me like a Bond villain exactly!

In some ways I am envious of your predicament. I am suffering the opposite problem…I have the “I can’t win” mindset!

Im not much of a believer in rigged poker sites. I believe in badly managed sites or sites which are unable to pay out, but not rigged. Too many people would need to be involved in the rigging of the site that it would come out soon enough. Then again, you had Absolute Poker.

My strong feeling is that you were having some kind of blistering heater there, and now variance is levelling the field once more.

That is a pretty dangerous mindset right there with getting so involved with your own hand you ignore villain’s(‘) hand(s).

The top players are not only considering their own hands and range, they are considering villain ranges, and how villain is likely to be perceiving their  range, and even what they think villain thinks they think villain has. 

Wow now I’ve even confused myself.

I think that is right!

SKAHfish
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October 2, 2016 - 7:42 am
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Yeah, I have been through this over and over again.

What I find is when your playing well and variance is on your side you feel indestructible and invariably you start to change your game. It is subtle but it does change, the longer the good variance the more it will change. 3betting more, opening wider, blffing more etc.

Your mind will relate this to playing well, then variance will reverse and you will continue playing the slightly adjusted way compounding it. Bad play plus bad variance. Basically the reverse of what it was before and suddenly your roll plummets.  

However like a phoenix from the embers, you start to study your game again realise what your doing wrong, learn some new stuff. Sometimes stay in a slump for a long time, maybe take some time off. Eventually you start playing well again and forget about making money and concentrate on making good decisions. You stop losing money maybe even start making a small amount or lose money vary slowly. 

Then one day the variance is back in your favour and your off again. This seems to be how poker is a constant cycle.

Even once your realise this you can find that even when you play your best you can loose for a long time especially in MTTs.

The funny thing is I keep telling myself these things yet I am still not analysing my own game properly. As I type this I think this is what I am going to do.

Check the EV of each of my sessions each time I play from now on. Not look at my bank roll but look at my total decisions. Was it plus EV or -EV and some up some how the total and try and improve this each time and ignore the bankroll.

In answer to your question, I think you were on a patch of good variance. Even if you kept playing as well it is not likely you would continue to final table as much all the time. I am suggesting to you what I am suggesting to myself, concentrate on each decision in isolation and ignore if you are winning or loosing. Take pride/joy in each decision and ignore what happens after the decision from a point of getting unlucky or lucky but don’t ignore process of the decision i.e. check later if it was correct using some form of analysis. EV calcs, posting here etc.smile

theginger45

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November 11, 2016 - 8:25 am
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I think what people are missing is that we need to step away entirely from thinking in terms of winning and losing, to the extent that that is actually possible. It’s a difficult thing to do, but in an ideal world we would never even know how much money we were making or losing, since the results we get are irrelevant with respect to how well we’re actually playing.

The only thing that matters is the EV of our decisions and the quality of our play. Stay focused on that, make sure you’re measuring those factors instead of measuring results, and things will get easier over time.

AK Mr Blonde
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December 7, 2016 - 11:35 pm
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hey guys, thanks for all the feedback! I really appreciate you guys taking the time to provide me with some awesome feedback.

I for sure need to work on my mental game. I thought I was pretty good on my mental game until that fiasco. I was letting my emotions play way to big of a factor in my decision making. i don’t know what happened, i am usually really good about making cold calculated decisions without letting any emotions sway me.

I was on a major heater there for awhile, I brought my account from 50$ to a little over $900 by grinding tournys. My Goal was to make it to 1000$. I got to about 975$ then it all went down hill. I must have had some sort of mental block there because I was so close and started taking unnecessary risks and getting burned. I was also very big headed at the time because of how well I was doing in tournys, i mistaked luck for skill.  and as skahfish and riceman said, I was on a heater before and then was experience bad variance, but instead of blaming the variance I blamed my strategy,  and tightened up way to tight. seeing as I grind mainly turbos (because I play on ignition and that’s all there is at night pretty much), playing too tight is certain death and then my bankroll started dwindling.

But what i thought was interesting is that when I’m multitabling if i am on top of my game and playing well i will be doing good on all my tables, but if I’m tilted i will start doing bad on all my tables. if it was just variance i doubt that it would happen all at the same time. while i was multitabling. maybe I’m wrong, but i just thought it was interesting.

But like theginger45 said I am going to stop focusing on winning and losing, I’m not going to focus on the money. im just going focus on making good decisions based on the information I have. I am not going to put a bankroll balance goal again. my only goal is to be able to do my hand history reviews and see that i am making good decisions.

When i used to trade the stock market i read an awesome book about the mental game of the stock market, and it relates to poker a lot. I am amazed by the similarities between the mental game of the stock market and the mental game of poker. the book is called ” the disciplined trader” by mark douglas.  the way he describes the stock market is similar to the arena of poker. a stock trader cannot control the market, the market is going to do what the market is going to do. the only thing you can control is the decisions you make based off the information you have. the trader has to set aside all emotions and focus on the information and the strategy that gives him his edge. If the trader suffers a loss doing everything the right way then there is nothing to be mad about, he cannot control the outcome of the market, the only thing he can control is when he buys and when he sells, and the way he reacts to gains and losses. If the trader suffers a great loss doing everything right, then that loss should not affect the next time he goes to buy stock. that loss has nothing to do with this decision.

The book goes into much greater detail about this stuff and goes over a lot more. but as you can see it is a lot similar to poker and how we cannot control what cards come out. we can just have to stick with our strategy, and make the best decision we have based on the information we have been given. we need to be able to face each decision with a fresh slate. 

well hopefully this makes sense.

The Riceman
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December 18, 2016 - 9:13 am
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There are many similarities between the worlds of poker and trading. I have only dabbled in the stock market, so I am no expert, but I have read that this is true over and over again in the years I have been studying poker.

Apparently, successful poker players can assume they will be successful traders, but it doesn’t necessarily work the other way round…IE a successful trader should not assume he will be able to become a successful poker player. 

I have absolutely no idea why this might be the case.

theginger45

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December 19, 2016 - 6:58 am
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The Riceman said
There are many similarities between the worlds of poker and trading. I have only dabbled in the stock market, so I am no expert, but I have read that this is true over and over again in the years I have been studying poker.

Apparently, successful poker players can assume they will be successful traders, but it doesn’t necessarily work the other way round…IE a successful trader should not assume he will be able to become a successful poker player. 

I have absolutely no idea why this might be the case.  

It’s because poker is a direct competition against other players. I don’t know much about trading, but to my knowledge you’re just trading against the market, essentially – when you’re playing poker, you win and lose versus other people.

Many people are so attached to the idea of winning and losing that it takes them a long time to separate themselves from results. It’s not just about the money, it’s about the confidence and validation that comes with a good result, or the disappointment and self-doubt that comes with bad ones.

In short, poker can be much more brutal on your ego than trading can, especially if you go into poker with an out-of-control ego in the first place.

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