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November 22, 2013
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Recently, I've been running fairly good, and cashing a bunch of tournaments. However, I feel as if I've been leaving a lot of money on the table. I will start tight, then open up my range upon the introduction of the antes, using my tight image to steal. I think I'm very good post ante and have made a deep run in more than 50% of the tournaments I've played online recently. I've been the chip leader at some point in almost every tournament this week. Inevitably though I will play a little too aggro and people will start to catch on. I already know I 3 barrell too frequently at the introduction of the antes and this is a leak of mine. But the other scenario is something I'm not sure is a leak or not, which is this:
I will be the chip leader let's just say with 50+ BB, which is pretty deep late in the tournament. There will be a bunch of 10BB or less short stacks. I will open with Ax or a moderate strength King such as KJ and a short stack will shove. Given the math, I think it's an easy call. If blinds are 1k/2K with 200 ante, 6 handed, then there is 4200 in the middle. If I raise to 4200 then I show an immediate profit if everyone folds, which they often do. So I raise and someone jams let's say 7.5BB to 15K. So now there is 8400 + 15 = 23.4K and 11K for me to call. Given 2:1 odds I think it's fair to say I should call with a wide range. So I call with Ax and of course my opponents show AK or AQ. I guess you could say bad on me for calling, especially when players who ordinarly let me get away with stealing suddenly shove. I still think it's worth a call given the odds. They were letting me steal, so I try to steal. Once they shove I can't take back my initial raise so I have to view the pot odds, which are favorable enough to call, so I call. The first one isn't the one that gets me. I still have 40+BB after I lose the first one. It's when it's back to back to back.
My question is not merely strategic, but psychological. I'm sure there are players who advocate not raising marginal hands when there are shove stacks I have to get through; however, so long as I'm raising 4200 to win 4200 I'm going to keep raising with any 2 so long as my opponent's fold > 50%. I guess you could say the remedy is to steal until they shove, but fold to a shove. But this just hurts my image and induces my opponents to shove lighter. If I call then they get the impression that I will call a shove so don't shove without the goods, which enables me to continue to steal. So there are strategic considerations, which I believe to be borderline.
I think my main problem though is psychological, I have a difficulty changing gears. I can change gears once or twice in a tournament but I'm not fluid. I'm not like the nature of water, which I know I should be. It's not that I'm tilted, at least not angry, as anyone will say I maintain good composure. It's more like I have my foot glued to the accelerator. People are letting me get away with being aggro so I just push harder and harder until eventually it's too hard. So does anyone have good advice as to how to mentally prepare yourself to change gears better? I have a hard time taking the foot off the accelerator once its already on.
April 26, 2013
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Very interesting post as I can totally feel what you mean. I find myself having the same trouble often enough.
I think that the mathematically correct decision (calling when facing 2:1 or better odds) is almost always the right thing to do. The reason why this feels bad is because we lose most of the time (67%). On the other hand IF we run pure, we smooth the way to a massive chip-lead and tournament success. Still, I am not 100% sure what the sickos say. Especially if you feel you got a strong edge you should probably fold sligthly +EV spots (as chips lost is normally worse than chips gained in a tournament). But yeah, I know the feeling when this happens (and it does a lot indeed).
About the changing gears thing: I experience the same problem, if I'm not totally playing in the zone where I actually am using correct and readjusted ranges all the time, I often got my aggro going but having a hard time cooling down when needed.
Maybe you could write a small chart with a few rows like 15% | 25% | 35% | 45% | 50%+ and place a coin or something on the %range-of-hands you feel you want/or should play now. You can always change the position of the coin, but there has always to be a little analysis why you would want to do that when doing so. Maybe this is something I'll try in my next bigger tourney. On the other hand this may take away game-flow related playing a little.
November 22, 2013
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I’m glad it’s not just me.
As to your other advice, one thing I may stop doing is raising weak unsuited Aces when there are short-stacks. I know the math says that A4o is better than 97s. However, it always seems like A4 is dominated when getting it in; whereas, 97 is two live cards. It also seems when you are holding a weak Ace and you hit the flop, your opponent’s just fold worse, or jam better. Weak aces are the biggest trap hand in poker imo and I get sucked in by my desire to steal the blinds and lucrative pot odds. Probably just better to avoid the trap.
March 11, 2014
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I like big dog’s live sweat videos for lots of these situations…..he does open raise marginal hands even from early if it feels right from a game flow perspective but he knows exactly what he’s going to do against each and every other player left to act based on their stack sizes and how he has seen them play so no surprises. He makes some pretty tight folds when it makes sense. Stealing only has to work a percentage of the time so you can let it go sometimes. I love how you explained it though. Sometimes with good players you have to pass up some of the more obvious spots simply because they know what you are doing and may outplay you in position.
Last night in the late stages of a MTT I tried to steal from the CO with Q9 and the SB shoved. He was short stacked and there was so much in the pot I had to call. The flop came 9 9 5 and when he disappeared he was still screaming in the chat box “you called me with Q 9!!!!” But he must have realized he didn’t have any FE. Sometimes it works out. Besides he had J 10. If I’d thought more carefully before I raised it probably wasn’t a great spot because he was so likely to shove
June 11, 2012
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WizardZur said:
I'm glad it's not just me.
As to your other advice, one thing I may stop doing is raising weak unsuited Aces when there are short-stacks. I know the math says that A4o is better than 97s. However, it always seems like A4 is dominated when getting it in; whereas, 97 is two live cards. It also seems when you are holding a weak Ace and you hit the flop, your opponent's just fold worse, or jam better. Weak aces are the biggest trap hand in poker imo and I get sucked in by my desire to steal the blinds and lucrative pot odds. Probably just better to avoid the trap.
with shallow to short stacks its much better to raise Ax as it takes so much % of their shoving range away.
the rest i am totally agree.
BTW i was in the same spot recently as well. Maybe the learning curve of TPE has brought as to a point where we start runing over tables now we need to learn how to maintain that and sooner or later we will crush 
October 25, 2013
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I find myself in the exact same situation quite often. Iv built a large stack and my foot is on the pedal. So so often im faced with a 8-15 bb shove when im holding aj or kq or similar. now obviously i can let these go player dependent but am i passing oppertunities up to build a massive stack and crush or am i bleeding chips by calling.? I feel this is one of the toughest spots in my case to solve as get it right im sitting on a huge stack get it wrong and when the blinds go up im near a reshove stack myself. Maybe peppergrinder is correct and i need to have a plan more often about what i will do in certain scenarios. but i def feel personally if i could deal with these situations better i would have a ton more deep runs as they generally occur when approaching the bubble. just to clarify im a low stakes player trying to soak up info to become a better player. all feedback welcome
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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A little secret for you guys – “changing gears” is basically bulls**t.
It's one of many concepts that people cooked up during the time when poker was just starting to be explored on a deeper level and played by more people, but not actually evaluated on any deep mathematical level. It suggests that there should be certain periods of play where we play 'tight' – a poorly-defined playing style that doesn't suggest much more than folding a lot – and certain periods of play where we play 'loose', which is pretty much just the opposite.
The reality, however, is that poker analysis has now progressed to the point where we don't need to be vague any more. We can give specific percentages and frequencies, ranges and equities, exact pot odds, and more. We talk about range balancing, game theory, and all kinds of other all-encompassing concepts.
Do you notice how none of the big-name pros you see crushing the games out there talk much about 'changing gears', and how they always seem to be aggressive at every opportunity, or have reputations for aggression? That's confirmation bias at work to some extent (you don't notice the hands they fold preflop without a second thought), but it's also an example of how their play follows a consistent style at each table they play at. It might not be the same style each time, but they're not playing 40% VPIP for an hour and then 10% for the next hour. They're just taking the good spots that come up, on a continuous basis. It's a fluid playing style that changes dependent on the situation.
There is only one gear that exists. That gear is, “what's the most profitable way to play this hand of poker?”
The concept of 'most profitable' might factor in all kinds of things such as table image, past history, player reads, tournament buyin, and many other concepts. It incorporates fold equity, hand ranges, pot equity, player frequencies, and everything else you can imagine, but at the end of the day all of those factors combine to create some measure of profitability for the hand, whether mathematical or theoretical.
The profitability of the next hand might be different dependent on the previous hand, but ultimately the way the previous hand was played is just one of the many factors we must consider before we play the next one. This is an ongoing and constantly evolving process, and to suggest that 'changing gears' is necessary assumes that we make a conscious choice to switch from one playing style from another, when in reality we should simply be making the best play every time, whether that involves making a tight fold or a loose 3-bet.
I might turn this post into an article if anyone's interested – I certainly have more to say on this idea.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Awesome post Ginger, saved me the trouble of writing the same thing less well.
October 25, 2013
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Would definitely be interested in an article ginger. Nice post. Any thoughts on the situation as above where you are facing a small reshove etc obviously always situational but any help with things to consider in this situation to help us make better more profitable decisions. Your thoughts would be appreciated.
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