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March 3, 2015
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Mentally anguished! Not sure how to perservere through to the “good times” or if I lack the requisite skills to ever win one. Have studied on here all month daily, played 145MTTs, not a single win. I “feel” like I get in mostly good, and come out bad…..How do you know when you suck and should be bowling instead?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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What was the average field size in these tournaments?
March 3, 2015
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Foucault said:
What was the average field size in these tournaments?
Im not sure, I can't find that statistic in PT4 but I am playing mainly $10 tourneys on Bovada ranging from the 1k-10 guarantee. I'd say on average they get to at least the guar. buy-ins, usually a little over.
So anywhere from 100-1700 entries.
If someone knows how to pull that stat out of PT4 I'm interested myself.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Let’s suppose the average field size was 500. How many times would you expect to win if you entered 150 tournaments?
March 3, 2015
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No idea how to figure out that statistic, sadly statistics is not my specialty. With an average 1st prize of ~$1000 or less though I would hope to win at least 1/100 of the $10 buy ins, or it's a pretty crappy way to earn beer money. Do you often go on swings of 150 tournaments without a win?
What sort of metric should I be looking for? Was sort of the initial idea behind “How do you know when you suck?”
Does my 150 tournament graph indicate I suck at poker, or that I just don't play enough?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Thankfully we aren't working with very complicated statistics here ;-). If there are 500 players in the tournament, then a player of average skill will win an average of 1 tournament for every 500 he plays, and of course there will be a lot of variance associated with that. A player who is twice as likely as his competitors to win could expect to average 1 win for every 250 tournaments played. This is why you need a gigantic bankroll to play MTTs, and a lot of patience.
Though there are surely things you could improve, it's entirely possible that you are not playing any worse than your opponents and just haven't hit the extreme luck that's required to win a large field tournament.
(The problem with your argument about expecting to win 1/100 times in a $10 tournament with a $1000 top prize is that there are other prizes as well. So you can win money even when you don't win first place).
March 3, 2015
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Heh, thanks. I guess I didn't realize that I should only be expecting a win every ~1000 tourneys of the ~1000 field when I play well. I did manage 7th in the $7500 guar. last night so that was my best cash so far, and I have made 2nd place in a $7.70 tourney with a smaller field.
I will just keep plugging away, trying to make the right plays. I just want my expected and actual lines to coincide.
March 3, 2015
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Plugging away like a madman, have managed to get my Expected BB won to 1050 after 190 tourneys, unfortunately……..actual BB won (-813) shows I still don’t know how to win, lol. YOLO.
Staying positive over 200 attempts where the expected result and actual result differ by such a large amount is brutal, poker might not be for me. I know I should just keep plugging money in and drinking more kool-aid because eventually I will have a 1800BB upswing back to even.
It sure seems like the guys who win trend upward, I don’t get the logic of trending down and winning beer money,my brain can’t handle putting the money in good enough to expect 1000BB and end up losing 800BB across 200 tournaments. Soon even Kool-aid will be out of the budget.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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You're really not dealing with much of a sample size here, as Andrew points out. Winning MTTs is very difficult and focusing on it is going to distract you from things that are much more important, like the decisions you're actually making at the tables.
Over 190 tourneys it's very common to have big discrepancies between Expected and Actual BB won (incidentally, those aren't the best stats to use. Use the Expected/Actual BB/100 instead), since it's so easy for a few big hands to have a huge impact. I hate to break it to you, but while you're probably dealing with a sample of perhaps 20,000 hands or so, it's entirely plausible to run way under EV over samples much bigger than that. I could show you a sample of over 4 million hands where I ran 6,000 big blinds under EV.
If you're expecting poker to 'give you what you deserve' and present you with a huge upswing to get you back to even, that's not how it works. If you're not prepared for the variance that comes along with poker, it's going to hit you pretty hard, pretty frequently. Focus on the decisions you're making and how you're actually playing, and let variance take care of itself.
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