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WPT deepstacks San Diego. Fold or Call?
tazzjazz
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November 3, 2014 - 2:49 pm
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Hate to be results oriented but not happy with a hand that I just played in the deepstacks $1100 Main Event at Ocean's 11 casino. There were 40 players left itm(504 runners) with blinds at 6,000/12,000 and the chip average is around 375,000. I had 149,000 chips to start the hand and was in middle position with 88. UTG, a young kid who lost 3/4 of his stack two hands earlier, moves all in for 97,000. UTG+1, a fifty something pro who was real active but lost a few pots and had slowed down to obviously wait for a good spot, looks at his cards and instashoves his last 134,000 in the pot. I tank for a minute and decide to fold and the players turn over A4 and AK and the runout is QQ724. If I had called I would have had 416,000 chips. I ended up busting 20 minutes later in 35th place when I shoved KJ suited from early position and ran into AJ.

I guess these shove/fold decisions should be strictly mathematical…i'm well ahead of UTG's range and certainly ahead of UTG1's range who I believe would be shoving all of his big aces and probably 55+. The fact that he instashoved and obviously loved his hand made me put him on a much tighter range: I thought if he had A10 or AJ or small pair he would think for a few seconds before shoving…in a sense I think my read was right. But in reflection I dunno if folding eights is ever good when you have 12.5 bb regardless of one's “read”. Not the most fascinating hand but I do think I usually play the under 20bb stack close to optimally and thought this was a close one

NeverAA
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November 4, 2014 - 11:46 am
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Hey man,

 

My humble opinion: I would have folded that too. I cant blame someone who piles, but two early position all ins before me and I have 88 and still have 12+ bbs. I mean Im not saying we are in good shape. But we are not that hopeless to get it all in multiway with 88. In most scenarios, you are going to be fighting with around 9-12 clean outs and the chances one of them is gonna hit by the end of the river is at least about 70%(didnt do the exact math). Pot gives you around 2.5 to 1.

In this case, it makes sense to call given that they are blocking eachothers out and you almost only need to worry about a King. But you cannot know that. I am myself an aggressive player, but again I would tend to fold this one with 12+ bbs.

Foucault

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November 5, 2014 - 9:52 am
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Sounds like a fold to me.

tazzjazz
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November 7, 2014 - 5:53 am
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thx for the input guys, i feel better about the fold now

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