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(3 votes) 
November 22, 2013
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HPT Stratosphere main event near the bubble. Hero around $240K (60BB) with Q
J in BB. Blinds are 2000, 4000; 400 ante. Villian in MP. Live so, no HUD data. But opponent is fairly typical TAG, roughly 20/15, generally raises 2.5x BB, c-bets 90% of flops, gives up on turn if he doesn't catch. I feel like I can generally outplay him post-flop and I have him well-covered. Villian raises in MP his typical amount to 10K (2.5BB), all folds to me in BB. QJs is basically just a suited connector, which can't stand a 4 bet. Because I can't withstand a 4 bet from a TAG I don't want to turn my hand into a bluff by 3 betting. So I don't think seriously about re-raising. Yet I'm not going to fold, given that I'm calling 8 thousand into a 20 thousand pot. Just too lucrative pot odds to fold despite the fact that I'm out of position.
Flop is Q-9-9 rainbow.
Hero checks. Villian bets 10K, which is basically what I expect him to do with any hand. This is a situation where either I'm way ahead or I'm crushed. If I raise, I'm mostly just getting worse to fold. It's possible but unlikely that my opponent has QQ, a 9, or AA/KK given that he is fairly tight. So this really is one of those situations where I can't fold, and I can't raise, so I flat.
Turn is an offsuit 4, completing the rainbow.
I check with the intention of check-calling if he continues. There's no real draw on the board, except for a J-10 or some such hand, which is probably unlikely to be in my opponent's range. I think about leading out, but that basically just gets worse hands to fold, I don't think Villian calls with worse than what I have so I still don't see the value in betting. Villian checks behind.
River is a 3.
Now I have to try to extract some sort of value. I bet 25K into a pot that is now 50K. I think Villian will call 25K, given the action, with a hand such as 77 to JJ. Villian min-raises to 50K. Now I'm pissed because I'm 99% sure that Villian never check-raises river as a bluff. Except I think there's some chance he's doing so with JJ bc he thinks he's value betting? In any case, the pot is now 100K and I have to call 25K. I think I'm ahead here more than 25% of the time so I call.
Villian shows 33 for a full-house. Ugh!
I end up losing to a terrible suck out about an hour later, but this is the hand that I feel began my decline, and I never got up to more than 250K. Generally I feel as if I played really well in this fairly difficult tourney, but just had several terrible coolers.
My question is this a situation where I played my hand poorly or is this just a cooler, given that my opponent had only 2 outs?
I wouldn't change anything preflop or on the flop. I kicked myself for not leading out on the turn and failing to get my rather straight forward opponent to fold. On the other hand, I was looking for pot control with a moderate strength hand. I think leading out on the river was standard. I guess I could have folded to the min-raise but I'm a sucker for pot-odds.
Let me know what you think! 
January 28, 2013
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I think this is played fine. Just ul for him to river you. I think leading the turn would be a mistake as you are never getting him to call worse and checking gives him the opportunity to put more chips in with JT, Ahigh, JJ or other parts of his range
November 22, 2013
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Yeah I'm just trying to go over what I could have done better.
Coincidentally, the hand I got knocked out on I had 25bb left at the bubble. I 3 bet someone pre with AQs and he 4 bet shoves. I start to get the sense that he is real nervous and I think that he is just trying to exploit me at the bubble thinking I will fold anything but KK-AA. I tank for a good 3 min. Eventually I call. He shows 3-6 for a pure bluff.
Flop comes: 2-4-5
I don't generally tilt but to make a good read on the bubble of a major live event and lose like that is not awesome. These two hands are the only big ones I lost too!
May 23, 2013
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Based on his image and your feeling that he never raises river as a bluff really makes me think it's a fold on the river. I don't see that type of player raise JJ on the river and that is a very small percentage of the hands he shows up with on the river. Can you construct all of the hands that he has by the river that he raises with that are not bluffs? Are you sure you are good 25% of the time agaisnt those hands?
Against a typical tight player they might not even raise river with AA or KK because you can have a 9 ut of the bb. A lot of the time that type of player bets flop and turns that don't change the board texture.
What was the villian's stack?
Pre, flop and turn seem fine.
November 22, 2013
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TBH I don't know precisely what villian's stack was bc it was live but it was roughly 60% of mine. 150K I think.
I'm thinking I could have folded river. He never bluffs there. I honestly don't think I had 25% in retrospect but at the time I thought it would stupid to fold to a min raise. Then again a min-raise is precisely the type of bet I SHOULD fold to given that I don't see how there's any possible way it could be a bluff. In the back of my mind I knew it was a fish call, I just couldn't fold. I think we've all been there.
November 4, 2013
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I'm curious why you hate raising the flop so much… I know it gets worse hands to fold, but it should also let you know if you are up vs a very big hand in a hurry. The problem with this board, is that worse hands aren't going to give you any more value at any point, unless they become better hands. Better hands on the flop are going to be able to value town you, because you haven't done anything to find the relative strength of your hand.
River is a fold, as I think you've come to the conclusion. I hate folding to min raises as well, but that is the exact bet you have to fold to. I'm more likely to call him if he makes it 80k than I am if he makes it 50k.
November 22, 2013
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OneTime1Time said:
I'm curious why you hate raising the flop so much… I know it gets worse hands to fold, but it should also let you know if you are up vs a very big hand in a hurry. The problem with this board, is that worse hands aren't going to give you any more value at any point, unless they become better hands. Better hands on the flop are going to be able to value town you, because you haven't done anything to find the relative strength of your hand.
River is a fold, as I think you've come to the conclusion. I hate folding to min raises as well, but that is the exact bet you have to fold to. I'm more likely to call him if he makes it 80k than I am if he makes it 50k.
I don't like raising flop mostly because I am sitting on a moderate strength hand, and I am not at all certain that I am good, but that I can get a lot more information by seeing what he would do on the turn. I posted the results, which I need to get out of the habit of doing, but I thought AQ, KQ, KK, AA was a lot more likely than what he actually showed up with. My opponent had played fewer than 10% of hands at this point btw. When I called with QJ, it wasn't at all due to the potential pair value, but solely because it was a suited connector, and I was getting lucrative odds. With this particular player, I felt as if he was ABC-TAG but not that great of a hand reader. Thus, I felt I could get a lot of value from him with a disguised straight, a flush, or two pair if he had a single pair type hand that he over valued. When I hit the Queen on a dry board I felt like I could be ahead, but I wasn't sure, and that sort of board wasn't what I was hoping for when I called pre. I'm never folding mind you, but I feel as if reraising flop would be overplaying my hand significantly, which is what I was trying to get HIM to do. However, I knew this particular opponent would never fire two barrells with air if I checked turn and I thought I could get a lot of information by just getting to the turn/river. As it turns out, I was perfectly correct, but my opponent just so happened to bink a two outer on the river.
November 4, 2013
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Thanks, I wasn't meaning to criticize your flop play, just merely asking why you were against it.. as I'm likely to take a check raise line on that flop a lot of the time. Now I'll have something else to consider. I also didn't realize he was that tight.
November 22, 2013
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OneTime1Time said:
Thanks, I wasn't meaning to criticize your flop play, just merely asking why you were against it.. as I'm likely to take a check raise line on that flop a lot of the time. Now I'll have something else to consider. I also didn't realize he was that tight.
Tbh I would check-raise here more than I would flat and flatting ended up costing me the pot so idk if it was correct. You try not to be results oriented but in retrospect I missed either a raise on the flop or a lead out on the turn and if I was going to lead out on the turn I may as well raise the flop to not give him the extra card. This was basically the turning point in the tournament, prior to that I had been cruising, and was certain I would at least cash. After he binked the river, I tried not to tilt, and I didn't. However, my stack was dwindled, and one suck out later I was gone. I can appreciate asking why I didn't raise the flop bc if I had I quite literally would have saved my tournament. That thinking is results oriented I know, but still you wonder if just one hand had gone another way….
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