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December 2, 2013
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hey guys
played pretty good today but there was one hand where i could have found a fold. i open the straddle late position to 40$ with QQ. the button calls and so does 2 limpers and BB. Flop is 2
5J
. Checks to me and i cbet to 115. button makes it 325 and bb shoves his short stack in, aprox 200. (put him on a draw right away, he was a maniac fish who we were all issolating all night. he didnt show hand at the end, assuming flush draw.) do you shove in you last 300 in this spot. i guess cause i really wasnt that deep and kepth telling myself he could have AJ or hearts. u find a fold, he flopped a set of JJ's. is this a cooler, sucks when you have to slow play a board like this and imagine everyone is flopping the nuts every hand.
thanks everyone
any advice would be greatly apreciated. do you play differnt??
thanks for the help
May 20, 2013
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I know it sucks, but when my big raise gets FOUR callers, my big pair is now a set-mine situation.
Time to pull out poker stove, put in some ranges, and take a deep breath followed by a long sigh.
I dont expect your going to like what you see. If I put you against AJ, a couple of lower pairs, and say a T9s, which is a pretty good scenario for you, you are 40% at best.
There is $200 in the pot ($40*5) and IF you c-bet here (and I would like to hear more comments on that), and you get re-raised and then shoved on, the QQ is should be heading to the muck.
All that being said, I have seen some terrible cash game players in my time and folded QQ to watch AJ against TT here, but I still think its a fold 90%+ of the time.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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ltcolumbo said:
If I put you against AJ, a couple of lower pairs, and say a T9s, which is a pretty good scenario for you, you are 40% at best.
Please actually do this and post the results. QQ is a favorite against every one of those hands, so there's no way it shakes out to be a dog against the range.
Or do you mean against multiple players holding each of those hands? Because in that case folding when you have 40% equity would be a big mistake. If you are getting 4:1 on your money (ie getting it in against four other players) you only need to 20% equity to break even.
Either way the bit about set mining just because you got called by four people is wrong.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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jsp074 said:
sucks when you have to slow play a board like this and imagine everyone is flopping the nuts every hand.
Who says you have to do that? Just because you lost to a better hand doesn't mean you made a mistake. Please do your best to put these players on ranges and calculate your equity. Why do you think it's a stretch to put either player on AJ? You think they are folding it to a bet?
If you really don't feel confident in your ability to put them on ranges, please post your own range. In other words, what hands would you open to $40 and then c-bet to $115 in this spot?
May 20, 2013
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Very good to know… (I did mean vs. 4 players)
QQ 38 %
22- JJ ~14% (each, x2)
AJ ~ 18-19%
Tc9c 14%
PRE-FLOP:
I was also incorrectly putting value on Tournament Life, which is NOT relevant here as it was a cash question. Based on the math, I have to withdrawl my “set mine” comment as it just does not hold up. It does seem counter intuitive to me, but math never lies. 40% getting 5-1 is great.
POST FLOP:
Doesnt Action have to be incorporated into the decision?? Who is shoving into 4 opponents (after a player who raised a c-bet) with a hand that cant beat AJ here?
Would you fold this in say level 1 of an MTT? Day 2 of WSOP?
Foucault said:
ltcolumbo said:
If I put you against AJ, a couple of lower pairs, and say a T9s, which is a pretty good scenario for you, you are 40% at best.
Please actually do this and post the results. QQ is a favorite against every one of those hands, so there's no way it shakes out to be a dog against the range.
Or do you mean against multiple players holding each of those hands? Because in that case folding when you have 40% equity would be a big mistake. If you are getting 4:1 on your money (ie getting it in against four other players) you only need to 20% equity to break even.
Either way the bit about set mining just because you got called by four people is wrong.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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ltcolumbo said:
POST FLOP:
Who is shoving into 4 opponents (after a player who raised a c-bet) with a hand that cant beat AJ here?
A “maniac fish”. OP already said this player is not a concern, so the only real question is are we doing well enough against the guy who raised. Although I can envision players against whom I would fold this, readless I don't see how we can rule out AJ or even worse Jacks from his range. It's pretty damn hard to outflop QQ on this flop, especially if we assume that KK/AA get 3-bet pre.
May 20, 2013
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Ok, to be honest, I spent today buying jeans and all I could think about the entire time was this hand! I understand “maniac fish”, and that he only has 200 to put in after the bet of 325, but it still seems like optimism (that we are good here)?
Am I that far off here? I know its hard to get outflopped, but there were 4 chances to outflop us and someone has taken a stance that its them. I can see the flop being a consideration since its really had to flop two pair… (I am thinking out loud now I see) but perhaps its more table dependant then we are mentioning?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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ltcolumbo said:
perhaps its more table dependant then we are mentioning?
I don't understand what you mean by this.
May 20, 2013
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What I was trying to articulate (poorly) was that perhaps in this game, I should expect people to go broke here with marginal hands? I think that is what everyone seems to be pointing to?
I saw a similar hand last night at my league and indeed TPTK AT went broken vs. JJ (all $$ in on the flop) so it stands to reason I am taking too conservative of a view.
December 2, 2013
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thanks guys for the replys
December 2, 2013
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ltcolumbo said:
If I put you against AJ, a couple of lower pairs, and say a T9s, which is a pretty good scenario for you, you are 40% at best.
Please actually do this and post the results. QQ is a favorite against every one of those hands, so there’s no way it shakes out to be a dog against the range.
Or do you mean against multiple players holding each of those hands? Because in that case folding when you have 40% equity would be a big mistake. If you are getting 4:1 on your money (ie getting it in against four other players) you only need to 20% equity to break even.
Either way the bit about set mining just because you got called by four people is wrong.
btw andrew, i know it sounds backwards but as soon as i hit a decent score im gonna get some coaching. your hand reading and HH reviews are something ive never seen before and has really oppened up my eyes and taken my game to the next level,. crazy!! thank you !!!
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